ABSTRACT
Objective:To forecast the reduce of medical direct expenses of China from 2016 to 2020,under the circumstances that some outpatients and inpatients of tertiary hospitals and secondary hospitals could be distributed to primary medical institutions.Methods:According to the number of outpatients,number of inpatients,medical expenses of outpatients per visit,and medical expenses of inpatients per visit in the first grade,second grade and third grade public hospitals from 2006 to 2015,the corresponding visit numbers and costs from 2016 to 2020 were forecasted based on liner regression model.The percentages of transferable patients out of all patients in different levels of institutions could be equal to 10％,20％ and 30％.The direct medical expense could be saved after the distribution were calculated.Results:If the trend of health service utilization from 2016 to 2020 were equal to the sample,the third grade hospitals would keep the fast increasing of outpatient expenses and patients.8％,16％ and 24％ of the total expenses would be saved if 10％,20％ and 30％ patients in third and second were led to the second and first grade medical institutions.Conclusion:It needed to slowdown the increasing trend of medical expenses,lead patients visit hospitals reasonably,strengthen the construction capacity of second grade medical and health institutions,meanwhile,the medical and health service system construction should adjust the distribution ratio.
ABSTRACT
Objective:To forecast the reduce of medical direct expenses of China from 2016 to 2020,under the circumstances that some outpatients and inpatients of tertiary hospitals and secondary hospitals could be distributed to primary medical institutions.Methods:According to the number of outpatients,number of inpatients,medical expenses of outpatients per visit,and medical expenses of inpatients per visit in the first grade,second grade and third grade public hospitals from 2006 to 2015,the corresponding visit numbers and costs from 2016 to 2020 were forecasted based on liner regression model.The percentages of transferable patients out of all patients in different levels of institutions could be equal to 10％,20％ and 30％.The direct medical expense could be saved after the distribution were calculated.Results:If the trend of health service utilization from 2016 to 2020 were equal to the sample,the third grade hospitals would keep the fast increasing of outpatient expenses and patients.8％,16％ and 24％ of the total expenses would be saved if 10％,20％ and 30％ patients in third and second were led to the second and first grade medical institutions.Conclusion:It needed to slowdown the increasing trend of medical expenses,lead patients visit hospitals reasonably,strengthen the construction capacity of second grade medical and health institutions,meanwhile,the medical and health service system construction should adjust the distribution ratio.