ABSTRACT
A sample of 1220 from a cohort of 10541 people in the West of Scotland who were interviewed and examined in 1974-76, aged 45-64, have been followed up to investigate whether a high casual post-prandial blood glucose level allows a reliable prediction of the later development of overt diabetes. The sample was from the top, middle and bottom quintiles of the blood glucose distribution. Record linkage and reference to general practitioner records was used to contact 903 out of 981 thought to be still alive. Thirty-six [4%] had been given a diagnosis of diabetes. Life table analysis showed that by 14 years, 14% of men with casual blood glucose> 126mg/dl had developed diabetes compared to 3% of men in the remainder of the sample. A high casual blood glucose at baseline remains a significant predictor when taking into account age, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, body mass index, cholesterol and smoking. In multiple logistic regression body mass index is also a significant predictor of later overt diabetes. We conclude that individuals identified even with a casual high blood glucose level could be advised of their risk and recommended to take action