Risk factors and interventions associated with mortality or survival in adult COVID-19 patients admitted to critical care: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Patients with confirmed COVID-19 admitted to intensive care units have a high mortality rate, which appears to be associated with increasing age, male sex, smoking history, hypertension and diabetes mellitus. Methods: A systematic review to determine risk factors and interventions associated with mortality/survival in adult patients admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) with confirmed COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2 infection. The protocol was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42020181185).Results: The search identified 483 abstracts between 1 January and 7 April 2020, of which nine studies were included in the final review. Only one study was of low bias. Advanced age (odds ratio [OR] 11.99, 95% confidence interval [CI] 5.35­18.62) and a history of hypertension were associated with mortality (OR 4.17, 95% CI 2.90­5.99). Sex was not associated with mortality. There was insufficient data to assess the association between other comorbidities, laboratory results or critical care risk indices and mortality.The critical care interventions of mechanical ventilation (OR 6.25, 95% CI 0.75­51.93), prone positioning during ventilation (OR 2.06, 95% CI 0.20­21.72), and extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) (OR 8.00, 95% CI 0.69, 92.33) were not associated with mortality. The sample size was insufficient to conclusively determine the association between these interventions and ICUmortality. The need for inotropes or vasopressors was associated with mortality (OR 6.36, 95% CI 1.89­21.36). Conclusion: The studies provided little granular data to inform risk stratification or prognostication of patients requiring intensive

The African Surgical OutcomeS-2 (ASOS-2) Pilot Trial, a mixed-methods implementation study

Background: The African Surgical Outcomes Study (ASOS) showed that surgical patients in Africa have a mortality twice the global average. The working hypothesis is that patients die as a result of failure to rescue following complications in the postoperative period. The African Surgical OutcomeS-2 (ASOS-2) Trial plans to test the efficacy of increased postoperative surveillance in high risk patients for decreasing perioperative morbidity and mortality. This pilot trial aimed i) to evaluate the adequacy of data produced by the data collection strategies of the ASOS-2 Trial, ii) to evaluate the fidelity of implementation of the increased postoperative surveillance intervention, and iii) to understand the acceptability, appropriateness and feasibility of the intervention and the trial processes. Methods: The ASOS-2 Pilot Trial was a mixed-methods (quantitative-qualitative) implementation study focusing on the intervention arm of the proposed ASOS-2 Trial. The intervention is increased postoperative surveillance for high-risk surgical patients. The intervention protocol was implemented at all sites for a seven-day period. A post pilot trial survey was used to collect data on the implementation outcomes. Results: 803 patients were recruited from 16 hospitals in eight African countries. The sampling and data collection strategies provided 98% complete data collection. Seventy-three percent of respondents believed that they truly provided increased postoperative surveillance to high risk patients. In reality 83/125 (66%) of high-risk patients received some form of increased postoperative surveillance. However, the individual components of the increased postoperative surveillance intervention were implemented in less than 50% of high-risk patients (excepting increasing nursing observations). The components most frequently unavailable were the ability to provide care in a higher care ward (32.1%) and assigning the patient to a bed in view of the nurses' station (28.4%). Failure to comply with available components of the intervention ranged from 27.5% to 54.3%. The post pilot survey had a response rate of 30/40 (75%). In Likert scale questions about acceptability, appropriateness, and feasibility of the ASOS-2 intervention, 63% to 87% of respondents indicated agreement. Respondents reported barriers related to resources, trial processes, teamwork and communication as reasons for disagreement. Conclusions: The proposed ASOS-2 Trial appears to be appropriate, acceptable and feasible in Africa. This pilot trial provides support for the proposed ASOS-2 Trial. It emphasises the need for establishing trial site teams which address the needs of all stakeholders during the trial. A concerted effort must be made to help participating hospitals to increase compliance with all the components of the proposed intervention of 'increased postoperative surveillance' during the ASOS-2 Trial

Preoperative anaemia and clinical outcomes in the South African surgical outcomes study

Background.In high-income countries, preoperative anaemia has been associated with poor postoperative outcomes. To date, no large study has investigated this association in South Africa (SA). The demographics of SA surgical patients differ from those of surgical patients in the European and Northern American settings from which the preoperative anaemia data were derived. These associations between preoperative anaemia and postoperative outcomes are therefore not necessarily transferable to SA surgical patients.Objectives. The primary objective was to determine the association between preoperative anaemia and in-hospital mortality in SA adult non-cardiac, non-obstetric patients. The secondary objectives were to describe the association between preoperative anaemia and (i) critical care admission and (ii) length of hospital stay, and the prevalence of preoperative anaemia in adult SA surgical patients.Methods. We performed a secondary analysis of the South African Surgical Outcomes Study (SASOS), a large prospective observational study of patients undergoing inpatient non-cardiac, non-obstetric surgery at 50 hospitals across SA over a 1-week period. To determine whether preoperative anaemia is independently associated with mortality or admission to critical care following surgery, we conducted a multivariate logistic regression analysis that included all the independent predictors of mortality and admission to critical care identified in the original SASOS model.Results. The prevalence of preoperative anaemia was 1 727/3 610 (47.8%). Preoperative anaemia was independently associated with in-hospital mortality (odds ratio (OR) 1.657, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.055 - 2.602; p=0.028) and admission to critical care (OR 1.487, 95% CI 1.081 - 2.046; p=0.015).Conclusions. Almost 50% of patients undergoing surgery at government-funded hospitals in SA had preoperative anaemia, which was independently associated with postoperative mortality and critical care admission. These numbers indicate a significant perioperative risk, with a clear need for quality improvement programmes that may improve surgical outcomes. Long waiting lists for elective surgery allow time for assessment and correction of anaemia preoperatively. With a high proportion of patients presenting for urgent or emergency surgery, perioperative clinicians in all specialties should educate themselves in the principles of patient blood management

National Priorities for Perioperative Research in South Africa

BACKGROUND:Perioperative research is currently unco-ordinated in South Africa (SA); with no clear research agenda.OBJECTIVE:To determine the top ten national research priorities for perioperative research in SA.METHODS:A Delphi technique was used to establish consensus on the top ten research priorities.RESULTS:The top ten research priorities were as follows: (i) establishment of a national database of (a) critical care outcomes; and (b) critical care resources; (ii) a randomised controlled trial of preoperative B-type natriuretic peptide-guided medical therapy to decrease major adverse cardiac events following non-cardiac surgery; (iii) a national prospective observational study of the outcomes associated with paediatric surgical cases; (iv) a national observational study of maternal and fetal outcomes following operative delivery in SA; (v) a stepped-wedge trial of an enhanced recovery after surgery programme for (a) surgery; (b) obstetrics; (c) emergency surgery; and (d) trauma surgery; (vi) a stepped-wedge trial of a surgical safety checklist on patient outcomes in SA; (vii) a prospective observational study of perioperative outcomes after surgery in district general hospitals in SA; (viii) short-course interventions to improve anaesthetic skills in rural doctors; (ix) studies of the efficacy of simulation training to improve (a) patient outcomes; (b) team dynamics; and (c) leadership; and (x) development and validation of a risk stratification tool for SA surgery based on the South African Surgical Outcomes Study (SASOS) data.CONCLUSIONS:These research priorities provide the structure for an intermediate-term research agenda

A meta-analysis of the efficacy of preoperative surgical safety checklists to improve perioperative outcomes

BACKGROUND:Meta-analyses of the implementation of a surgical safety checklist (SSC) in observational studies have shown a significant decrease in mortality and surgical complications.OBJECTIVE:To determine the efficacy of the SSC using data from randomised controlled trials (RCTs). METHODS:This meta-analysis followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines and was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42015017546). A comprehensive search of six databases was conducted using the OvidSP search engine.RESULTS:Four hundred and sixty-four citations revealed three eligible trials conducted in tertiary hospitals and a community hospital; with a total of 6 060 patients. All trials had allocation concealment bias and a lack of blinding of participants and personnel. A single trial that contributed 5 295 of the 6 060 patients to the meta-analysis had no detection; attrition or reporting biases. The SSC was associated with significantly decreased mortality (risk ratio (RR) 0.59; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.42 - 0.85; p=0.0004; I2=0%) and surgical complications (RR 0.64; 95% CI 0.57 - 0.71; petlt;0.00001; I2=0%). The efficacy of the SSC on specific surgical complications was as follows: respiratory complications RR 0.59; 95% CI 0.21 - 1.70; p=0.33; cardiac complications RR 0.74; 95% CI 0.28 - 1.95; p=0.54; infectious complications RR 0.61; 95% CI 0.29 - 1.27; p=0.18; and perioperative bleeding RR 0.36; 95% CI 0.23 - 0.56; petlt;0.00001.CONCLUSIONS:There is sufficient RCT evidence to suggest that SSCs decrease hospital mortality and surgical outcomes in tertiary and community hospitals. However; randomised evidence of the efficacy of the SSC at rural hospital level is absent

Carotid Artery Stump Pressure and Associated Neurological Changes in Predominantly Symptomatic Carotid Artery Disease Patients Undergoing Awake Carotid Endarterectomy : Cardiovascular Topics

Aim : To determine the mean carotid artery stump pressure (SP) at which patients develop neurological changes while undergoing awake carotid artery endarterectomy (CEA) under cervical block anaesthesia (CBA). Methods : A prospective analysis was carried out of patients undergoing awake CEA under CBA between February 2004 and April 2007. All patients had mean SP measured; with selective shunting on those who developed neurological symptoms on carotid artery clamping regardless of stump pressure. A ball connected to a pressure sensor was put in the patient's contra-lateral hand. Results : Fifty-nine patients had awake CEA; 40 were males with a mean age of 64 years. Indications for CEA were asymptomatic high-grade stenosis in 12 (20) patients and symptomatic stenosis in 47 (80). Seven (12) patients required shunting; one for transient ischaemic attack (TIA) and six for loss of consciousness. Six of these patients had presented with symptomatic disease. Taking the threshold of mean carotid SP of 50 mmHg as an indication for shunting; 22(6 / 27) of patients with a mean SP of 50 mmHg required shunting and only 3(1 / 32) with a mean carotid SP of 50 mmHg needed a shunt. This was not statistically significant. Using a mean carotid SP of ? 40 mmHg as the threshold for shunting; 40(4 / 10) of patients required shunting and 3(1 / 31) with a mean carotid SP of 40 mmHg required shunting. This was statistically significant. Thirteen (22) patients were complicated by transient hoarseness of voice. One (2) had a haematoma that required re-exploration. None of these patients had any major postoperative neurological or cardiological complications. Conclusion : Even though the sample in this study was small; awake CEA under local anaesthesia was seen as a safe procedure. It would appear to be safe to use the mean SP of 40 mmHg as a threshold for selective shunting in CEA under general anaesthesia

Investigation of predictors of increased creatine kinase levels following vascular surgery and the association with peri-operative statin therapy : cardiovascular topic

Although peri-operative statin administration is likely to be cardioprotective, there remains a concern about the risk of rhabdomyolysis and associated renal failure following statin administration in the peri-operative period. The aim of this study was to determine independent predictors of creatine kinase (CK) elevation following vascular surgery.Design: A retrospective cohort study was conducted. A multivariate analysis using binary logistic regression was conducted of clinical, surgical and laboratory factors which may be associated with a CK exceeding five times the upper limit of normal (ULN).Results: Four independent predictors associated with a CK > 5 ULN were identified. Statin therapy was protective [odds ratio (OR) 0.096, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.014-0.68, p = 0.019], and a serum creatinine > 180 µmol.l-1, positive serum troponins and embolectomy and/or fasciotomy were associated with CK elevation (OR 3.32, 95% CI: 1.03-10.7, p = 0.04; OR 5.84, 95% CI: 1.52-22.4, p = 0.01; OR 5.62, 95% CI: 1.14-27.8, p = 0.03 respectively). Statin therapy was associated with decreased mortality (OR 0.26, 95% CI: 0.08-0.86, p = 0.028).Conclusion: It may be preferable to continue statin therapy in vascular surgical patients even when CK is elevated, as this may decrease mortality if the CK elevation is in the presence of pre-existing renal dysfunction, peri-operative cardiac events or following embolectomy or fasciotomy. Further investigation is required to confirm this observation

Validation of a model to predict all-cause in-hospital mortality in vascular surgical patients : cardiovascular topic

Objective : To develop and validate a pre- and postoperative model of all-cause in-hospital mortality in South African vascular surgical patients. Methods : We carried out a retrospective cohort study. A multivariate analysis using binary logistic regression was conducted on a derivation cohort using clinical, physiological and surgical data. Interaction and colinearity between covariates were investigated. The models were validated using the Homer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. Results : Independent predictors of in-hospital mortality in the pre-operative model were : (1) age (per one-year increase) [odds ratio (OR) 1.03, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.0-1.06), (2) creatinine > 180 µmol.l-1 (OR 6.43, 95% CI: 3.482-11.86), (3) chronic beta-blocker therapy (OR 2.48, 95% CI: 1.38-4.48), and (4) absence of chronic statin therapy (OR 2.81, 95% CI: 1.15-6.83). Independent predictors of mortality in the postoperative model were: (1) age (per one-year increase) (OR 1.05, 95% CI: 1.02-1.09), (2) creatinine > 180 µmol.l-1 (OR 5.08, 95% CI: 2.50-10.31), (3) surgery out of hours without statin therapy (OR 8.27, 95% CI: 3.36-20.38), (4) mean daily postoperative heart rate (HR) (OR 1.02, 95% CI: 1.0-1.04), (5) mean daily postoperative HR in the presence of a mean daily systolic blood pressure of less than 100 beats per minute or above 179 mmHg (OR 1.02, 95% CI: 1.01-1.03) and (6) mean daily postoperative HR associated with withdrawal of chronic beta-blockade (OR 1.02, 95% CI: 1.01-1.03). Both models were validated. Conclusion : The pre-operative model may predict the risk of in-hospital mortality associated with vascular surgery. The postoperative model may identify patients whose risk increases as a result of surgical or physiological factors