ABSTRACT
Objective To analyze the trend of death level and the probability of premature death caused by chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in Jinshan District of Shanghai from 1980 to 2020, and to provide reference for the formulation of prevention and control measures of COPD. Methods The death cases of COPD in Jinshan District from 1980 to 2020 were collected through the death cause registration information system. The crude mortality, standardized mortality, age group mortality, early death probability and annual change percentage in different periods were calculated. Results From 1980 to 2020, the crude mortality of COPD in Jinshan District was 154.38/100 000, and the standardized mortality was 82.66/100,000. In the past 41 years, the standardized mortality of COPD showed a downward trend in males and females (APC=-1.79%, -2.52%, P<0.001). In the same period, the mortality of COPD in subjects aged 30-69 years old and subjects aged 70 years old and above also decreased (APC=-8.79%, -4.79%, P<0.001), and the probability of premature death caused by COPD showed a downward trend in males and females (APC=-9.61%, -10.71%, P<0.001). Conclusion The mortality rate and the probability of premature death of COPD in Jinshan District have decreased in the past 41 years. However, COPD is still one of the major chronic diseases that pose a serious threat to the health of residents in Jinshan District. Comprehensive prevention and treatment measures should be taken to reduce the mortality and the probability of premature death of COPD.