Development and Validation of the Emergency Department Geriatric Readmission Assessment at Yale (ED GRAY): Part 2, Prognostic Accuracy.

Objective: The Emergency Department (ED) Geriatric Readmission Assessment (ED-GRAY) is a 16-item questionnaire we developed that can be used to evaluate the prognostic ability to determine if geriatric patients will recidivate to the ED, be admitted or die within 30 days. Methods: We conducted an observational prospective cohort study at a single academic urban university-affiliated hospital. Subjects (n=250) were consenting, non-critically ill, English-speaking adults older than 65 years and receiving care in the ED. Multivariable logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to evaluate the ability to accurately predict the likelihood of a 30-day event: subsequent ED visit, hospitalization, or death. Results: 56 participants (22%) experienced at least one 30-day return visit or death. Greater disability as measured by the ED GRAY global disability was associated with an increased likelihood of an event (OR=1.7 for each 1-point worsening in severity; 95% CI 1.2, 2.5). In the multivariable model, prior ED visits (OR=2.7, 95% CI=1.4, 5.2), ED GRAY global score (OR=1.4, 95% CI=1.0, 2.1), and age (OR=1.03, 95% CI=0.99, 1.07) were associated with a greater likelihood of a 30-day event. The fit of the multivariable model was good (Hosmer-Lemeshow Goodness of Fit test, p=0.85) and it provided good discrimination between those having and not having a 30-day event (AUROC=0.70). The predicted probability of a return visit ranged from 3–56%. Conclusions: ED GRAY demonstrated good predictive validity when combined with prior ED visits, poly-pharmacy and age.

Development and Validation of the Emergency Department Geriatric Readmission Assessment at Yale (ED GRAY): Part 1, Fundamental Measurement.

Objective: Our primary objective was to develop a reliable, valid, and efficient screening tool that measures recovery disability among geriatric patients for the Department of Emergency Medicine (ED) Geriatric Readmission Assessments (GRAY). Methods: We conducted a retrospective medical chart review and prospective data analysis of geriatric patients admitted to hospital from the emergency department that were discharged, admitted, or died at a single academic urban university-affiliated hospital to identify items for ED GRAY. Rasch analysis was then used to reduce items and construct an interval/ratio scale of physical and cognitive disabilities. Patients consisted of a cohort of consenting, non-critically ill, English-speaking adults older than 65 years and receiving care in the ED to reduce the number of items. Results: Rasch analyses resulted in infit and outfit statistics that eliminated redundant items or items that did not fit a unidimensional disability construct. From the 158 original items, sixteen items comprise the ED GRAY global health questionnaire, representing five sub-constructs: physical disability, cognitive disability, stress, depression, and isolation. All infit and outfit statistics for the global recovery disability score ranging from 1 (least healthy) to 5 (most healthy) were consistent with forming a unidimensional scale. Conclusions: Our study resulted in an objective measurement tool of physical and cognitive disability using Rasch analyses. This screening tool allows healthcare providers the ability to screen older ED patients on a continuum of risk, with high-risk patients being most likely to benefit from in-depth evaluation—e.g., comprehensive geriatric assessment—followed by intervention (when necessary).