Probabilistic evaluation of dietary exposure to lead and age-related exposure centile for residents in Jiangsu / 中华预防医学杂志

<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To establish a probabilistic model for evaluation of dietary exposure to lead and construct age-related exposure centiles for the residents in Jiangsu.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>Lead contamination data were obtained from the national food contamination monitoring program during 2001 - 2006 and 2791 samples from 232 food products in Jiangsu were included. Food consumption data were from the national diet and nutrition survey conducted in 2002, including 3938 subjects in Jiangsu. A non-parametric probabilistic model using Monte Carlo simulation was applied to derive the intake distribution. The intake data was then analyzed using the LMS method, which constructs exposure percentiles adjusted for the median (M), the coefficient of variation (S) and the skewness (L) of the intake distribution.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>The median and P(99) of the lead exposure for the residents in Jiangsu were 1.02 µg×kg(-1)×d(-) and 9.29 µg×kg(-1)×d(-1), respectively.6.38% of the total population showed to have a lead intake exceeding the tolerable limit, which for the urban and rural population were 4.31% and 7.06%, respectively. The exceeding rate for children of 2 - 10 years old from the urban and rural areas were 13.17% and 17.70%, respectively.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>There was a large variation in the lead exposure level of the population in Jiangsu; People in rural areas are in greater risk for higher lead exposure than urban people; The dietary exposure to lead for children and the high-end population was serious.</p>

Establishment of non-parametric probabilistic model for evaluation of Chinese dietary exposure / 中华预防医学杂志

<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To establish a non-parametric probabilistic model for evaluation of Chinese dietary exposure and to improve the assessment accuracy while integrating into the global risk assessment on food safety.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>Contamination data was from the national food contamination monitoring program during 2000 - 2006, including heavy metals, pesticides and mycotoxins, amounting to 135 contaminants with 499 commodities and 487 819 samples. Food consumption data was obtained from the national diet and nutrition survey conducted in 2002 with three consecutive days by 24-hour recall method, and 66 172 consumers were included. Monte Carlo simulation was applied to derive the intake distribution, and the uncertainty of each percentile was estimated using the Bootstrap sampling.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>Different non-parametric probabilistic models for dietary exposure evaluation on heavy metals, pesticides and some of the toxins were established for Chinese people, and intake distributions with 95% confidence intervals of these contaminants were estimated. Taking acephate as an example, the results of its model shows that, for the 7 - 10 year-old children, the median dietary exposure in urban and rural areas were 1.77 microg x kg(-1) x d(-1) and 2.48 microg x kg(-1) x d(-1) respectively, with a 95% confidence interval of (1.59 - 2.06) microg x kg(-1) x d(-1) and (2.33 - 2.80) microg x kg(-1) x d(-1) respectively.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>The non-parametric probabilistic model can quantify the variability and uncertainty of exposure assessment and improve the assessment accuracy.</p>

Establishment of database for food classification and coding in Chinese dietary exposure assessment / 中华预防医学杂志

<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To establish the basis for Chinese dietary exposure assessment database by classifying and coding the data from the national dietary survey and pollutant surveillance.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>The method, which combined CODEX food classifying and coding of Codex Alimentarius Commission (CAC) with Chinese food classification of food composition table, was applied to classify and code the data of 1 810 703 Chinese dietary consumption and 487 819 pollutant surveillance. The coding system was according to the first two letters of the respective food group that represent the type or source of foods, the last four digits represent the serial number of the food in the CAC food classification. If the foods can be found in CAC food code system, its original food code is used. The new codes corresponding with the foods which are not exist in CAC food code system, is added according to CAC coding methods.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>Dietary consumption data were divided into 6 major categories, 19 types, 75 groups, the agricultural products of pollutant surveillance corresponding to 499 codes. Comparing with CAC food coding system, Chinese dietary consumption data have added F (candy snacks) and G (beverages) 2 major categories, 4 types, 33 groups, 302 new codes. The additional groups most were the processing food groups with Chinese characteristics, such as canned, beverages, candy, meat products.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>The foundation of data communication to dietary exposure assessment has been established, and the connection of Chinese food classifying and coding with CAC data have been achieved.</p>

Development and verification of Chinese dietary exposure evaluation model software / 中华预防医学杂志

<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To develop the dietary exposure evaluation model software accredited of Chinese intellectual property rights and to verify the rationality and accuracy of the results from the probabilistic model in Chinese dietary exposure evaluation model software according to international standards.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>The software of SAS was used to build various evaluation model based on the data from Chinese dietary survey and the chemical compound in food surveillance and to design an operation interface. The results from probabilistic dietary exposure model for children 2 - 7 years old were compared with that from duplicate portion study of 2-7 years children dietary exposure in Jinhu, Jiangsu province in order to analyze the rationality of model. The results from probabilistic model of dietary exposure were compared with the results from @Risk software to verify the correction of the probabilistic model by using the same data of randomly selected 10 000 study subjects from national dietary survey. While, the mean drift was used as an internal index to illustrate the accuracy of the computation.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>Chinese dietary exposure evaluation software was developed successfully. On the rationality, the results from probabilistic model were lower than that from the point estimation (e.g., cucumber: the result of point estimation of acephate was 4.78 microg x kg(-1) x d(-1), while the results of probabilistic model which was 0.39 microg x kg(-1) x d(-1)). Meanwhile the results from probabilistic model were higher than the results of duplicate portion study (on the P95, the result of probabilistic model of Pb exposure in children was 11.08 microg x kg(-1) x d(-1), while the results of duplicate portion study was 5.75 microg x kg(-1) x d(-1)). On accuracy, the results from @Risk and the probabilistic model were highly consistent (on the P95, the result of probabilistic assessment of acephate diet exposure was 4.27 microg x kg(-1) x d(-1), while the results of duplicate portion study was 4.24 microg x kg(-1) x d(-1)), and the mean drift was of random distribution, the drift region varied from 0.05% to 11.9%.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>The results computed by the software of Chinese dietary exposure evaluation model are reliable and reasonable, which is a meaningful step to improve the dietary exposure evaluation technique in China.</p>

Resident dietary exposure of cadmium in Jiangsu province / 中华预防医学杂志

<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To investigate the resident dietary cadmium exposure in Jiangsu province and assess its safety.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>Cadmium concentration of 229 food items under 12 food groups were obtained from the food surveillance program in Jiangsu province between 2001 and 2006. Food consumption data of 778 food items of 3938 residents who were classified into four age groups (< 7, 7-, 13-, 18-) were got from the Nutrition and Health Status Survey of the Jiangsu resident in 2002 by 24 h dietary recall on three consecutive days. Dietary cadmium exposures for the residents of different age groups were obtained by using both point estimation and simple distribution estimation through integrating the two datasets above. The safety of dietary cadmium exposure was assessed.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>Point estimation showed that the average dietary cadmium intakes of different age groups ranged from 5.7 to 8.6 microg/kg, accounting for 567.1% - 857.1% of the provisional tolerable daily intake (PTDI, 1.0 microg/kg). Result of simple distribution method showed mean daily cadmium exposure of different age groups ranged from 0.2 to 0.4 microg/kg, accounting for 20% - 40% of PTDI. Mean weekly cadmium exposure ranged from 1.4 to 2.5 microg/kg, accounting for 20% - 35.7% of the provisional tolerable weekly intake (PTWI, 7.0 microg/kg). The mean daily dietary cadmium exposure for different groups were as follows: < 7, 0.4 microg/kg; 7-, 0.3 microg/kg; 13-, 0.2 microg/kg; 18-, 0.2 microg/kg. Differences of daily dietary cadmium exposures among groups were significant (F = 69.0, P < 0.05). The mean weekly dietary cadmium exposure for different groups were: < 7, 2.5 microg/kg; 7-, 2.0 microg/kg; 13-, 1.4 microg/kg; 18-, 1.4 microg/kg. Differences of weekly dietary cadmium exposures among groups were also significant (F = 41.6, P < 0.05). The P97.5 of daily cadmium exposure for < 7 and 7- were 1.4 and 1.2 microg/kg, respectively, both of which were higher than PTDI. The P99.0 of daily cadmium exposure for 13- and 18- were 1.3 and 1.1 microg/kg, respectively. The daily dietary exposure from cereals for different age groups were 21.5 - 253.4 microg/kg, occupying 42.2% - 47.8% of the total daily exposure. Vegetables were 8.0 - 119.4 microg/kg, occupying 14.6% - 20.1%.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>The average level of dietary cadmium exposures for residents in Jiangsu province calculated by simple distribution estimation were much lower than that calculated by point estimation and were considered to be at no risk. P97.5 or P99.0 of daily or weekly dietary cadmium exposure of different age groups exceeded PTWI and PTDI. The main food types of dietary cadmium exposure were cereals and vegetables.</p>

Changes in dietary patterns and certain nutrition-related diseases in urban and rural residents of Jiangsu Province, China, during the 1990s / 生物医学与环境科学（英文）

<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To investigate into the changes of dietary patterns and their impacts on health of urban and rural residents in Jiangsu Province, China during the 1990s.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>On the basis of the results of food consumption survey, the calorie intake was calculated according to the balanced diet method and the quality of diet was assessed by scores of desirable dietary pattern (DDP).</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>It was found that food consumption and dietary patterns changed remarkably during the 1990s. Grain consumption was decreasing year by year, but the consumption of animal food was markedly increasing. Although the score of desirable dietary pattern (DDP) in urban residents was more than 90, the deducted score due to over-consumption of animal food increased. The mortality from infectious diseases evidently decreased in the whole province, while the death rates of some chronic diseases, such as diabetes, hypertension, colorectal cancer and breast cancer, were increasing rapidly in urban areas.</p><p><b>CONCLUSIONS</b>Sufficient attention should be paid to the negative effects of change in dietary patterns on people's health, especially in the urban residents.</p>