ABSTRACT
Objective:To establish a nomogram model for predicting positive resection margins after prostate cancer surgery, and to perform the corresponding verification, in order to predict the risk of positive resection margins after surgery.Methods:A total of 2 215 prostate cancer patients from The First Affiliated Hospital of Naval Medical University, Hospital, Peking University First Hospital, Peking University Third Hospital, Peking University, and First Affiliated Hospital of Xi′an Jiaotong University were included in the PC-follow database from 2015 to 2018, and a simple random sampling method was used. They were divided into 1 770 patients in the modeling group and 445 patients in the verification group. In the modeling group, the age (<60 years, 60 to 70 years, >70 years), PSA (<4 ng/ml, 4-10 ng/ml, 11-20 ng/ml, >20 ng/ml), pelvic MRI (negative, suspicious, positive), clinical stage of the tumor (T 1-T 2, ≥T 3), percentage of positive needles (≤33%, 34%-66%, >66%), Gleason score of biopsy pathology (≤6 points, 7 points, ≥8 points). Univariate and multivariate logistic analysis were performed to screen meaningful indicators to construct a nomogram model. The model was used for validation in the validation group. Results:The results of multivariate analysis showed that preoperative PSA level ( OR=2.046, 95% CI 1.022 to 4.251, P=0.009), percentage of puncture positive needles ( OR=1.502, 95% CI 1.136 to 1.978, P=0.002), Gleason score of puncture pathology ( OR=1.568, 95% CI 1.063 to 2.313, P=0.028), pelvic MRI were correlated ( OR=1.525, 95% CI 1.160 to 2.005, P=0.033). Establish a nomogram model for independent predictors of positive margin of prostate cancer. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of the validation group is 0.776. The area under the ROC curve of the preoperative PSA level, percentage of puncture positive needles, puncture pathology Gleason score, pelvic MRI, postoperative pathology Gleason score were 0.554, 0.615, 0.556, 0.522, and 0.560, respectively. The difference between the nomogram model and other indicators was statistically significant ( P<0.05). Conclusions:The constructed nomogram model has higher diagnostic value than the preoperative PSA level, percentage of puncture positive needles, Gleason score of puncturing pathology, pelvic MRI, and postoperative pathological Gleason score in predicting positive margin.
ABSTRACT
Objective:To investigate the risk factors for Gleason score upgrading after radical prostatectomy in clinical low-risk prostate cancer patients aged≥65 years.Methods:A total of 485 clinical low-risk prostate cancer patients aged≥65 years at five centers of the national multi-center PC-follow database from January 2015 to March 2019 were retrospectively analyzed.Data including age at diagnosis, prostate-specific antigen(PSA), MRI prostate imaging, puncture Gleason score, operation method, puncture method, positive incision margin and capsule penetration were collected.Differences in Gleason scores before and after operation were compared, and the risk factors for Gleason score upgrading after radical resection were evaluated by univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analysis.Results:Of 485 patients with a puncture Gleason score of 3+ 3=6, 261(53.8%)cases had postoperative pathological upgrading, in whom 228(87.4%)cases had Gleason score upgrading of 7, 22(8.4%)had Gleason score upgrading of 8, and 11(4.2%)had Gleason score upgrading of 9 or more.The rate of Gleason score upgrading was elevated with increased preoperative PSA levels, positive pelvic MRI, and higher positive rates of puncture biopsy.The incidences of postoperative capsule penetration(27.2% vs.12.5%, P<0.001)and positive incision margin(25.2% vs.17.4%, P=0.036)had statistically significant differences between the pathologically upgraded group and the pathologically non-upgraded group.Multivariate analysis showed that preoperative PSA level, percentage of positive puncture biopsies, biopsy Gleason score and pelvic MRI were independent predictors of prostate cancer. Conclusions:For clinical low-risk prostate cancer patients aged≥65 years with high risk factors for Gleason score upgrading, repeated biopsies should be carried out when necessary and the treatment plan should be adjusted accordingly.