Projection of Eye Disease Burden in Singapore

<p><b>INTRODUCTION</b>Singapore's ageing population is likely to see an increase in chronic eye conditions in the future. This study aimed to estimate the burden of eye diseases among resident Singaporeans stratified for age and ethnicity by 2040.</p><p><b>MATERIALS AND METHODS</b>Prevalence data on myopia, epiretinal membrane (ERM), retinal vein occlusion (RVO), age macular degeneration (AMD), diabetic retinopathy (DR), cataract, glaucoma and refractive error (RE) by age cohorts and educational attainment from the Singapore Epidemiology of Eye Diseases (SEED) study were applied to population estimates from the Singapore population model.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>All eye conditions are projected to increase by 2040. Myopia and RE will remain the most prevalent condition, at 2.393 million (2.32 to 2.41 million) cases, representing a 58% increase from 2015. It is followed by cataract and ERM, with 1.33 million (1.31 to 1.35 million), representing an 81% increase, and 0.54 million (0.53 to 0.549 million) cases representing a 97% increase, respectively. Eye conditions that will see the greatest increase from 2015 to 2040 in the Chinese are: DR (112%), glaucoma (100%) and ERM (91.4%). For Malays, DR (154%), ERM (136%), and cataract (122%) cases are expected to increase the most while for Indians, ERM (112%), AMD (101%), and cataract (87%) are estimated to increase the most in the same period.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>Results indicate that the burden for all eye diseases is expected to increase significantly into the future, but at different rates. These projections can facilitate the planning efforts of both policymakers and healthcare providers in the development and provision of infrastructure and resources to adequately meet the eye care needs of the population. By stratifying for age and ethnicity, high risk groups may be identified and targeted interventions may be implemented.</p>

Triaging Primary Care Patients Referred for Chest Pain to Specialist Cardiology Centres: Efficacy of an Optimised Protocol

INTRODUCTION@#Patients referred for chest pain from primary care have increased, along with demand for outpatient cardiology consultations. We evaluated 'Triage Protocol' that implements standardised diagnostic testing prior to patients' first cardiology consultation.@*MATERIALS AND METHODS@#Under the 'Triage Protocol', patients referred for chest pain were pretriaged using a standardised algorithm and subsequently referred for relevant functional diagnostic cardiology tests before their initial cardiology consultation. At the initial cardiology consultation scheduled by the primary care provider, test results were reviewed. A total of 522 triage patients (mean age 55 ± 13, male 53%) were frequency-matched by age, gender and risk cohort to 289 control patients (mean age: 56 ± 11, male: 52%). Pretest risk of coronary artery disease was defined according to a Modified Duke Clinical Score (MDCS) as low (20). The primary outcome was time from referral to diagnosis (days). Secondary outcomes were total visits, discharge rate at first consultation, patient cost and adverse cardiac outcomes.@*RESULTS@#The 'Triage Protocol' resulted in shorter times from referral to diagnosis (46 vs 131 days; <0.0001) and fewer total visits (2.4 vs 3.0; <0.0001). However, triage patients in low-risk groups experienced higher costs due to increased testing (S$421 vs S$357, = 0.003). Adverse cardiac event rates under the 'Triage Protocol' indicated no compromise to patient safety (triage vs control: 0.57% vs 0.35%; = 1.000).@*CONCLUSION@#By implementing diagnostic cardiac testing prior to patients' first specialist consultation, the 'Triage Protocol' expedited diagnosis and reduced subsequent visits across all risk groups in ambulatory chest pain patients.

Making Clinical Practice Guidelines Pragmatic: How Big Data and Real World Evidence Can Close the Gap

Clinical practice guidelines (CPGs) have become ubiquitous in every field of medicine today but there has been limited success in implementation and improvement in health outcomes. Guidelines are largely based on the results of traditional randomised controlled trials (RCTs) which adopt a highly selective process to maximise the intervention's chance of demonstrating efficacy thus having high internal validity but lacking external validity. Therefore, guidelines based on these RCTs often suffer from a gap between trial efficacy and real world effectiveness and is one of the common reasons contributing to poor guideline adherence by physicians. "Real World Evidence" (RWE) can complement RCTs in CPG development. RWE-in the form of data from integrated electronic health records-represents the vast and varied collective experience of frontline doctors and patients. RWE has the potential to fill the gap in current guidelines by balancing information about whether a test or treatment works (efficacy) with data on how it works in real world practice (effectiveness). RWE can also advance the agenda of precision medicine in everyday practice by engaging frontline stakeholders in pragmatic biomarker studies. This will enable guideline developers to more precisely determine not only whether a clinical test or treatment is recommended, but for whom and when. Singapore is well positioned to ride the big data and RWE wave as we have the advantages of high digital interconnectivity, an integrated National Electronic Health Record (NEHR), and governmental support in the form of the Smart Nation initiative.

Prevalence and Risk Factors of Atrial Fibrillation in Chinese Elderly: Results from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey / 中华医学杂志(英文版)

<p><b>BACKGROUND</b>Prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) is increasing as the world ages. AF is associated with higher risk of mortality and disease, including stroke, hypertension, heart failure, and dementia. Prevalence of AF differs with each population studied, and research on non-Western populations and the oldest old is scarce.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>We used data from the 2012 wave of the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey, a community-based study in eight longevity areas in China, to estimate AF prevalence in an elderly Chinese population (n = 1418, mean age = 85.6 years) and to identify risk factors. We determined the presence of AF in our participants using single-lead electrocardiograms. The weighted prevalence of AF was estimated in subjects stratified according to age groups (65-74, 75-84, 85-94, 95 years and above) and gender. We used logistic regressions to determine the potential risk factors of AF.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>The overall prevalence of AF was 3.5%; 2.4% of men and 4.5% of women had AF (P < 0.05). AF was associated with weight extremes of being underweight or overweight/obese. Finally, advanced age (85-94 years), history of stroke or heart disease, low high-density lipoprotein levels, low triglyceride levels, and lack of regular physical activity were associated with AF.</p><p><b>CONCLUSIONS</b>In urban elderly, AF prevalence increased with age (P < 0.05), and in rural elderly, women had higher AF prevalence (P < 0.05). Further exploration of population-specific risk factors is needed to address the AF epidemic.</p>