Application of prediction models in clinical research / 上海预防医学

Chronic diseases have become an important public health problem for people under 70 years of age worldwide， while also causing a great economic burden. The establishment of clinical prediction models can help to predict the risk of a disease or the prognostic effect of a study subject in advance by means of index testing at the early stage of chronic diseases， and plays an increasingly important role in clinical practice. This study introduces clinical diagnostic prediction models and clinical prognostic prediction models， and reviews clinical data processing， clinical prediction model building， visualization methods and model evaluation from the perspective of the application of clinical prediction models， which contribute to the correct and reasonable use of prediction models in clinical research.

Research Progress of Key Molecular Events Related to Progression of Colorectal Cancer / 肿瘤防治研究

The continuous development of high-throughput and single-cell sequencing technologies and the emergence of spatial transcriptome sequencing have allowed the continuous discovery of temporal and spatial molecular events in the progression of colorectal cancer (CRC) to better understand its mechanism of malignant progression. Genetic variations (mutation of APC and P53, etc.) and mismatch repair of DNA, posttranscriptional regulation, such as epigenetic alteration, and dynamic alteration of complex molecular networks have their own special molecules that play key roles. Drug resistance and metastasis in the late stage of CRC progression are closely related to these key molecular events. This article reviews the research progress and explores key molecular events in the malignant progression of CRC to provide scientific basis and ideas for elucidating the regulatory mechanism of CRC and evaluating its prognosis prediction and treatment.

Incidence and mortality of lung cancer in countries with different human development index / 上海预防医学

ObjectiveTo compare the annual and age trends of the age-standard incidence rate （ASIR） and the age-standard mortality rate （ASMR） of lung cancer in countries with different human development index （HDI） from 1990 to 2019. MethodsThe data were collected from the global burden of disease study and GLOBOCAN 2020. The average annual percentage change （AAPC） and age trends of ASIR and ASMR in lung cancer were analyzed by the Joinpoint regression model， and the comparison between the four groups was analyzed by Kruskale-Wallis analysis. ResultsIn 2020， the incidence and mortality of lung cancer gradually increased with age and HDI grade. From 1990 to 2019， the global ASIR and ASMR of lung cancer decreased， and the ASIR of lung cancer among male decreased， while the ASIR of lung cancer among female increased. The results showed that ASIR of lung cancer in female residents in countries with very high HDI increased significantly from 1996 to 2011， resulting in an overall upward trend in female ASIR， while the other groups showed a downward trend. It was found that ASIR and ASMR of lung cancer in China and India were on the rise， while ASIR and ASMR of lung cancer in Russia and the United States were on the decline. ConclusionAlthough very high/high HDI countries face a higher burden of lung cancer occurrence and death， the accumulation of lung cancer burden is completed in the transitioning period. Therefore， lung cancer prevention measures in countries in transition are critical for global lung cancer control.

Study on spectrum-toxicity relationship of in vitro hepatotoxicity of aqueous extract from Euodia rutaecarpa / 中国药房

OBJECTIVE To study the spectru m-toxicity relationship of in vitro hepatotoxicity of aqueous extract from Euodia rutaecarpa. METHODS The aqueous extract from 16 batches of E. rutaecarpa from different habitats were prepared. The fingerprints of aqueous extract from E. rutaecarpa were established by ultra high performance liquid chromatography （UPLC） method and Similarity Evaluation System of TCM Fingerprint （2012A edition ），and common peaks were identified and the similarity was evaluated. Using normal human hepatocytes L 02 as subject ，inhibitory effect of aqueous extract from 16 batches of E. rutaecarpa to them were investigated. The spectrum-toxicity relationship of UPLC fingerprint of aqueous extract from E. rutaecarpa with the hepatotoxicity of hepatocytes L 02 was analyzed by grey relational analysis （GRA）and partial least squares regression analysis （PLSR）. The corresponding compound of the chromatographic peak with the greatest correlation with the in vitro hepatotoxicity of E. rutaecarpa were isolated ，prepared and identified. RESULTS There were 27 common peaks in UPLC fingerprints of aqueous extract from 16 batches of E. rutaecarpa ，with similarity of 0.375-0.995. Totally 9 peaks were confirmed ，i.e. neochlorogenic acid （peak 5），chlorogenic acid （peak 9），cryptochlorogenic acid （peak 10），caffeic acid （peak 12），rutin （peak 16），hyperin（peak 17），dehydroevotarine（peak 19），evotarine（peak 24），rutecarpine（peak 25）. The aqueous extract from 16 batches of E. rutaecarpa showed significant inhibitory effect on the growth of L 02 cells（P＜0.05 or P＜0.01），and the inhibitory rate ranged from 6.68％ to 67.95％. GRA showed that there were 18 common peaks with correlation degree greater than 0.8，which were peak 8＞peak 3＞peak 23＞peak 7＞peak 4＞peak 9＞peak 12＞peak 2＞peak 19＞peak 6＞ 4928381。E-mail：799247687@qq.com peak 15＞peak 5＞peak 1＞peak 17＞peak 21＞peak 26＞ peak 20＞peak 14 in descending order of correlation degree. PLSR showed that there were 14 peaks with regression coefficient＞0 and variable importance projection value ＞1，and the order of regression coefficient was peak 8＞peak 3＞peak 23＞ peak 2＞peak 7＞peak 4＞peak 12＞peak 9＞peak 19＞peak 5＞peak 17＞peak 26＞peak 10＞peak 15. Peak 8 had the greatest correlation with in vitro hepatotoxicity，and the corresponding compound of this peak was identified as 6-O-trans caffeoyl gluconic acid. CONCLUSIONS The in vitro hepatotoxicity of aqueous extract from E. rutaecarpa is the result of multiple component interaction，among which 6-O-trans caffeoyl gluconic acid shows closest relation with in vitro hepatotoxicity.

Insight on the separated ownership/operation reform of public hospitals in Zhenjiang city / 中华医院管理杂志

Public hospitals are the backbone of China's healthcare,shouldering critical tasks of ensuring health of the Chinese people at large.Their reform,therefore,should enhance and coordinate the balance between public welfare and efficiency of public hospitals as much as possible.Such a “separated ownership/operation” reform in the management system reform of public hospitals can raise their operational and management efficiency,so as to maximize their performance of public benefits.Based on the basic theory of separated ownership and operation,authors of the paper proposed policy recommendations for such a reform upon the analysis of the four optional patterns separated ownership and operation of public hospitals.