External validation of european system for cardiac operative risk evaluation II (euroscore II) for risk prioritization in an iranian population

Abstract Introduction: The European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II (EuroSCORE II) is a prediction model which maps 18 predictors to a 30-day post-operative risk of death concentrating on accurate stratification of candidate patients for cardiac surgery. Objective: The objective of this study was to determine the performance of the EuroSCORE II risk-analysis predictions among patients who underwent heart surgeries in one area of Iran. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted to collect the required variables for all consecutive patients who underwent heart surgeries at Emam Reza hospital, Northeast Iran between 2014 and 2015. Univariate and multivariate analysis were performed to identify covariates which significantly contribute to higher EuroSCORE II in our population. External validation was performed by comparing the real and expected mortality using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for discrimination assessment. Also, Brier Score and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test were used to show the overall performance and calibration level, respectively. Results: Two thousand five hundred eight one (59.6% males) were included. The observed mortality rate was 3.3%, but EuroSCORE II had a prediction of 4.7%. Although the overall performance was acceptable (Brier score=0.047), the model showed poor discriminatory power by AUC=0.667 (sensitivity=61.90, and specificity=66.24) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test, P<0.01). Conclusion: Our study showed that the EuroSCORE II discrimination power is less than optimal for outcome prediction and less accurate for resource allocation programs. It highlights the need for recalibration of this risk stratification tool aiming to improve post cardiac surgery outcome predictions in Iran.

A Systematic Review on Prognostic Indicators of Acute Liver Failure and Their Predictive Value for Poor Outcome.

Aims: To systematically identify and summarize prognostic indicators in patients with acute liver failure and to evaluate their predictive value. To analyse a wide spectrum of indicators used worldwide for prediction of outcome in patients with acute liver failure as a starting point for a better prognostic index. Methodology: Online databases MEDLINE® (1950-2014) and EMBASE® (1980-2014) were searched and studies published up to 01 January 2014 were considered. Articles were included if they reported original data from a clinical trial or observational study on patients with diagnosis of acute liver failure or fulminant hepatic failure and if one of their main objectives was evaluating prognostic indicators of acute liver failure outcome. Of 1835 identified studies 119 were included for detailed analysis. Results: Based on 289 selected indicators and their effect on patient outcome following 8 categories were formed: general markers (n=32), bio-markers (n=131), hemodynamic (n=14), liver function tests (n=7), imaging/morphology (n=15), scoring systems (n=53), time intervals (n=17), and treatments (n=20). The most frequently reported indicators were: bilirubin, age creatinine, coagulopathy expressed by prothrombin time or INR and hepatic encephalopathy. Conclusion: This review provides a large amount of information, including the extensive list of worldwide used indicators to predict outcome in patients with acute liver failure. There is large heterogeneity in prognostic indicators of acute liver failure, methods of measurement, complexity of calculation and threshold values. Based on this large list of indicators we suggest that an ideal prognostic index should preferentially be based on pathophysiological aspects and has to be applied in a dynamic way. Future studies on acute liver failure can profit from this inventory.