ABSTRACT
Background@#The emergence of new infectious diseases threatens public health, increasing socioeconomic damage, and national risks. This study aimed to develop an evidence-based risk assessment tool to quickly respond to new infectious diseases. @*Methods@#The risk elements were extracted by reviewing the risk assessment methods of the World Health Organization, United States, Europe, United Kingdom, and Germany, and the validity and priority of elements were determined through expert meetings and Delphi surveys. Then, the scale and level for each risk element were defined and a final score calculation method according to the risk evaluation result was derived. The developed risk assessment tool was verified using data at the time of domestic transmission of an emerging infectious disease. @*Results@#In case of spread of actual infectious diseases, priority is determined based on the criticality of the elements in each area of transmissibility and severity, from which the weighted score of the risk assessment is derived. Then, the risk score for each element was calculated by multiplying the average value of the risk evaluation by its weight and the evaluation risk assessment score for the two areas was calculated. At last, the final score is plotted in a matrix where the x-axis indicates the transmissibility and the y-axis the severity and plotted on the coordinate plane for time series use. @*Conclusion@#With respect to transmissibility and severity, this risk assessment method to respond to new and re-emerging infectious diseases enables rapid and evidence-based evaluation by quantitatively and qualitatively assessing various risk elements.
ABSTRACT
Background@#Emerging infectious diseases, such as Middle East respiratory syndrome or coronavirus disease 2019, pose a continuous threat to public health, making a risk assessment necessary for infectious disease control and prevention. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the risk assessment methods for infectious diseases used by major foreign countries and organizations. @*Methods@#We conducted an investigation and comparative analysis of risk assessment and risk determination methods for infectious diseases. The risk assessment tools included the strategic toolkit for assessing risks, influenza risk assessment tool, pandemic severity assessment framework, and rapid risk assessment methodology. @*Results@#The most frequently reported risk elements were disease severity, antiviral treatment, attack rate, population immunity, and basic productive ratio. The risk evaluation method was evaluated quantitatively and qualitatively by the stakeholders at each institution. Additionally, the final risk level was visualized in a matrix, framework, and x and y-axis. @*Conclusion@#Considering the risk assessment tools, the risk element was classified based on the duplicate of each indicator, and risk evaluation and level of risk assessment were analyzed.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Studies on factors which may predict the risk of diabetes are scarce. This prospective cohort study was conducted to determine the association between adiponectin and type 2 diabetes among Korean men and women. METHODS: A total of 42,845 participants who visited one of seven health examination centers located in Seoul and Gyeonggi province, Republic of Korea between 2004 and 2008 were included in this study. The incidence rates of diabetes were determined through December 2011. To evaluate the effects of adiponectin on type 2 diabetes, the Cox proportional hazard model was used. RESULTS: Of the 40,005 participants, 959 developed type 2 diabetes during a 6-year follow-up. After the adjustment for age, body mass index (BMI), and waist circumference, the risks for type 2 diabetes in participants with normoglycemia had a 1.70-fold (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.21 to 2.38) increase in men and a 1.83-fold (95% CI, 1.17 to 2.86) increase in women with the lowest tertile of adiponectin when compared to the highest tertile of adiponectin. For participants with impaired fasting glucose (IFG), the risk for type 2 diabetes had a 1.46-fold (95% CI, 1.17 to 1.83) increase in men and a 2.52-fold (95% CI, 1.57 to 4.06) increase in women with the lowest tertile of adiponectin. Except for female participants with normoglycemia, all the risks remained significant after the adjustment for fasting glucose and other confounding variables. Surprisingly, BMI and waist circumference were not predictors of type 2 diabetes in men or women with IFG after adjustment for fasting glucose and other confounders. CONCLUSION: A strong association between adiponectin and diabetes was observed. The use of adiponectin as a predictor of type 2 diabetes is considered to be useful.