ABSTRACT
The study was conducted to determine the prevalence, incidence, and risk factors for HIV infection among factory workers at two sites in Ethiopia. During February 1997-December 2001, a structured questionnaire was used for obtaining information on sociodemographics, sexual behaviour, and reported sexually transmitted infections (STIs) from a cohort of 1679 individuals. Serum samples were screened for antibodies against HIV, Treponema pallidum haemaglutination (TPHA), and herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2). The overall baseline prevalence of HIV was 9.4%-8.5% among males and 12.4% among females. For both the sexes, the factors independently associated with an increased risk of HIV infection were widowhood and having had antibodies against TPHA and HSV-2. The risk factors specific for males were being orthodox Christian, having had a higher lifetime number of sexual partners, and genital discharge in the past five years. The risk factors for females, included low income, one or more rape(s) over lifetime, and casual sex in the last year. The overall incidence of HIV infection was 0.4 per 100 person-years. The highest rate of incidence was observed among young women aged less than 30 years (1 per 100 person-years). The study confirmed that high-risk sexual behaviour and STIs play major roles in the spread of HIV infection in the Ethiopians of both the sexes, but the factors, such as rape and low economic status, make women more vulnerable than men.
Subject(s)
Adult , Age Distribution , Cohort Studies , Ethiopia/epidemiology , Female , HIV Infections/blood , Health Surveys , Herpes Genitalis/blood , Herpesvirus 2, Human/isolation & purification , Humans , Incidence , Industry , Male , Middle Aged , Odds Ratio , Prevalence , Surveys and Questionnaires , Risk Factors , Sex Distribution , Sexual Behavior/statistics & numerical data , Sexually Transmitted Diseases/epidemiology , Socioeconomic FactorsABSTRACT
The study estimated the potential demographic impact of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) in a low-fertility urban setting in sub-Saharan Africa. The prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) projected using a deterministic mathematical model was put into the AIDS Impact Model (AIM) of the SPECTRUM Policy Modelling System to estimate the potential demographic impact ofAIDS in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Demographic indicators from 1984 (the start of the HIV epidemic in Ethiopia) to 2024, including and excluding the HIV epidemic, were compared. Addis Ababa is experiencing a demographic transition in which the total fertility rate has declined from 3.8 to below replacement level over the last 20 years. The prevalence of HIV is predicted to stabilize at 10% in adults, resulting in a total number of people living with HIV at 200,000 and a cumulative number of deaths due to AIDS at 50,000. About 60% of adult deaths can be attributable to AIDS by 2000. The epidemic is predicted to reduce life expectancy by 10 and 17 years in 2000 and 2024 respectively, and to turn to negative, the rate of natural increase after 2009. Accordingly, the rate of natural increase will be -0.18%, -0.35%, and -0.71% per annum by 2009, 2014, and 2024 respectively. Population growth is expected to continue with or without HIV, as a result of high net in-migration, although data for migration are scanty. In a low-fertility urban society of Africa, this study shows the potential for the HIV/AIDS epidemic to turn the rate of natural increase to negative.