Statistical modeling of future lake level under climatic conditions, case study of Urmia lake [Iran]

The present research focuses on the changes of Urmia Lake level. For this purpose, two time scales have been considered. The trend changes of temperature, precipitation rate and quantitative values of climate type for the observational period from 1968 to 2011 [past scale] and from 2011 to 2100 [future scale] have been analyzed. General Circulation Model [GCM] is considered for simulating the values of the future meteorological components, and statistical models have been used for modeling the lake's level in future decades. One of the most significant results achieved for the future decades is the increase of the lake's temperature for around 1.5 degrees centigrade till 2100 in comparison with the long-term average of 1961 to 1990. Furthermore, the values extracted from precipitation rate and climate type of the zone also indicate a remarkable decrease of quantitative values in the future decades. Accordingly, the climate type extracted for the year 2100 with numeric value of around 17.75 will be entered a new phase called arid climate for the first time in recent decades. The Lake surface area is diminished from 5650 square kilometers in 1998 to about 2005 square kilometers in 2010. According to the results achieved by statistical models and time series, if this trend continues, the Lake level will be reduced around 3 more meters in 2100

Simulation of temperature changes in Iran under the atmosphere carbon dioxide duplication condition

The present research intends to show the effect of global warming on the trend and patterns of temperature in Iran. The study has been divided into two primary parts, the first of which is an analysis of the country's temperature trend using the following data measures: the minimum, maximum, and mean seasonal night temperature [the minimum temperature] components, the day temperature [the maximum temperature] component and the mean daily temperature component. This data is specific to the time frame 1951 to 2005 and it was obtained from 92 synoptic and climatology stations around the country. The second part of this research involved simulating and forecasting the effects of global warming on temperature values under conditions in which greenhouse gases have increased. For analyzing these simulations and forecasts the MAGICC SCENGEN model was used and different climate change scenarios were taken into consideration. The results are quite interesting. In the analysis of the country's current temperature trend and in the forecasting's, specifically related to time, a significant temperature increase was observed during the summer months. Also, with regard to altitudinal levels, it was evident that stations at higher altitudes show a more significant increase in daily and mean daily temperatures. Taking into account the output mean of the different climate change scenarios, the temperature simulations show a 4.41 Degree C increase in Iran's mean temperature by 2100. Most of these temperature increases would occur in the southern and eastern parts of Bushehr, certain coastal regions of the Persian Gulf, eastern and western parts of Fars, Kohgilooye, Boyerahmad, southern parts of Yazd, as well as southern and southeastern parts of Esfahan

Simulation of global warming effect on outdoor thermal comfort conditions

In the coming decades, global warming and increase in temperature, in different regions of the world, may change indoor and outdoor thermal comfort conditions and human health. The aim of this research was to study the effects of global warming on thermal comfort conditions in indoor ambiences in Iran. To study the increase in temperature, model for assessment of greenhouse-gas induced climate change scenario generator compound model has been used together with four scenarios and to estimate thermal comfort conditions, adaptive model of the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-conditioning Engineers has been used. In this study, Iran was divided into 30 zones, outdoor conditions were obtained using meteorological data of 80 climatological stations and changes in neutral comfort conditions in 2025, 2050, 2075 and 2100 were predicted. In accordance with each scenario, findings from this study showed that temperature in the 30 zones will increase by 2100 to between 3.4°C and 5.6°C. In the coming decades and in the 30 studied zones, neutral comfort temperature will increase and be higher and more intense in the central and desert zones of Iran. The low increase in this temperature will be connected to the coastal areas of the Caspian and Oman Sea in southeast Iran. This increase in temperature will be followed by a change in thermal comfort and indoor energy consumption from 8.6% to 13.1% in air conditioning systems. As a result, passive methods as thermal inertia are proposed as a possible solution

Effects of climate change process on comfort climate in Shiraz station

Dwelling in cities and city development together with quick increase of population and development of industrial activities with unplanned consumption of fossil fuel have intensively increased pollutions with consequences which will cause different diseases in short period, will lead to some climatic oscillations and its environmental effects such as the change of desirable periods in view of comfort climate in long period. The objective point of view of this research was to study the climate in Shiraz and its effect on comfort conditions for human physiology. In this research, using 55-year climatic data [1952-2006], the relative humidity and temperature through the application Guni comfort climatic model, the desirable months for the comfort of human physiology have been determined in the five 11-year periods and the linear process of these changes have been estimated for the next 11 years. The results of this research show that the temperature trend in Shiraz station is increasing and most months have heating process in a way that it is expected that in the coming future, the cold months will have more favoring conditions for physiological comfort of residents and correspondingly in the warm months, heating tension will have remarkable increase