ABSTRACT
Background Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne disease transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. Under the background of climate change, there are great challenges in the prevention and control of dengue fever, posing a serious health risk to the population. Objective To analyze the mechanism of temperature on dengue fever transmission and estimate the risk of dengue fever under different climate change scenarios by establishing a coupled human-mosquito dynamics model using Guangzhou as a research site, and to provide reference for adaptation to climate change. Methods Reported dengue fever cases and meteorological data from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2019 in Guangzhou were collected from Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention and China Meteorological Data Service Centre, respectively. The temperature data under three Representative Concentration Pahtyway (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) scenarios in 2030s (2031–2040), 2060s (2061–2070), and 2090s (2091–2099) were calculated by five general circulation models (GCMs) provided by the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. A dengue fever transmission dynamics (ELPSEI-SEIR) model was constructed to analyze the mechanism of temperature affecting dengue fever transmission by fitting the dengue fever epidemic trend from 2015–2019, and then the daily mean temperature under selected RCP scenarios for 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s was incorporated into the established dynamics model to predict the risk of dengue fever under different climate change scenarios in the future. Results From January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2019, a total of 4 234 cases of dengue fever were reported in Guangzhou, including 3741 local cases and 493 imported cases. The regression results showed that the model well fitted the dengue fever cases in Guangzhou from 2015 to 2019, and the coefficient of determination R2 to evaluate goodness of fit and the root mean squared error were 0.82 and 1.96, respectively. A U-shaped or inverted U-shaped relationship between temperature and mosquito habits could directly affect the number of mosquitoes and the transmission of dengue fever. We also found that temperature increase in most future scenarios could promote the transmission of dengue fever, and the epidemic period was significantly wider than the baseline stage. The epidemic of dengue fever would peak in the 2060s under the scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP4.5. The estimated incidence of dengue fever was predicated to be highest in the 2030s and then decrease in the following years under RCP8.5, and in the 2090s, the incidence would decrease significantly, but the incidence peak would be earlier in each year, mainly from May to July. Conclusion Temperature can directly affect mosquito population and dengue fever transmission by affecting mosquito habits. The cases of dengue fever will increase under most climate scenarios in the future. However, the epidemic risk of dengue fever may be suppressed, and the epidemic season may be advanced under RCP8.5.
ABSTRACT
Since March 2013,China had experienced five seasonal epidemics related to Avian influenza A (H7N9).An unprecedented outbreak of H7N9 epidemic started from September 2016,with 730 cases reported till June 30th 2017,in mainland China that caused profound influences on both social development and health of the people.As an emerging infectious disease,information on pathogenic characteristics,transmission patterns and other epidemiological features of H7N9 virus somehow remained unclear.Data from previous studies suggested that the live poultry market (LPM) seemed to have served as main places where H7N9 virus got originated,mutated,spread and thus infected the human beings.Hence,closure of LPMs was suggested a major measure to control and prevent H7N9 epidemics in China.However,the effectiveness of different ways of LPM closures on H7N9 epidemics had been controversial.This study systemically summarized the effects of different ways of LPM closures on H7N epidemics from previous studies,aiming to provide references for developing a better program on H7N9 control and prevention in the country.
ABSTRACT
Since March 2013,China had experienced five seasonal epidemics related to Avian influenza A (H7N9).An unprecedented outbreak of H7N9 epidemic started from September 2016,with 730 cases reported till June 30th 2017,in mainland China that caused profound influences on both social development and health of the people.As an emerging infectious disease,information on pathogenic characteristics,transmission patterns and other epidemiological features of H7N9 virus somehow remained unclear.Data from previous studies suggested that the live poultry market (LPM) seemed to have served as main places where H7N9 virus got originated,mutated,spread and thus infected the human beings.Hence,closure of LPMs was suggested a major measure to control and prevent H7N9 epidemics in China.However,the effectiveness of different ways of LPM closures on H7N9 epidemics had been controversial.This study systemically summarized the effects of different ways of LPM closures on H7N epidemics from previous studies,aiming to provide references for developing a better program on H7N9 control and prevention in the country.