ABSTRACT
To analyze the long-term trend of mortality and years of life lost (YLL) of gastric cancer in Tianjin from 1999 to 2015. From January 1, 1999 to December 31, 2015, the data of gastric cancer deaths was collected from the Tianjin death surveillance system. The inclusion criteria of death due to gastric cancer were coded by using 151 in the 9(th) edition of the international classification of diseases (ICD) (1999-2002) and C16 in the 10(th) edition of ICD (2003-2015). The crude and age-standardized mortality rate (ASR) of gastric cancer was calculated according to Segi's world standard population. YLL was calculated according to the standard method of the disease burden of WHO. The Joinpoint regression was used to calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) to indicate the trend of mortality and YLL of gastric cancer. From 1999 to 2015, there were 20 000 deaths of gastric cancer in Tianjin. The proportion of gastric cancer death in the population aged 0-44 years old, 45-64 years old, and 65 years old and above was 4.9%, 30.4%, and 64.8%, respectively. The proportion of males and urban was 67.1% and 67.5%, respectively. From 1999 to 2015, the crude mortality rate was from 12.10/100 000 to 12.58/100 000. The ASR was from 11.04/100 000 to 7.24/100 000. The average annual YLL number was 29 625.83 person-years and the rate was 3.09 person-years per thousand people. From 1999 to 2015, the crude mortality rate and the PYLL of gastric cancer in Tianjin were stable (the AAPC was 0.34% and -0.24%, all values >0.05). The ASR showed a downward trend (AAPC=-2.58%, 0.001). From 1999 to 2015, the ASR of gastric cancer in Tianjin showed a downward trend, and the YLL of gastric cancer was stable.
ABSTRACT
Objective To quantitatively explore the effect of air pollution on coronary heart disease mortality in Tianjin.Methods Mortality data in 2001-2009 were from Tianjin mortality surveillance system operated by the Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention while data related to meteorology and air pollution were from the Tianjin Meteorological Bureau and Tianjin Environmental Monitoring Station,respectively.Generalized Additive Model (GAM) extended Poisson regression was used to examine the relationship between air pollution and mortality in Tianjin,under the controlling of time trends,weather,the day of week and population etc.Results The crude coronary heart disease mortality in Tianjin increased from year 2001 to 2009,from 105.12/100 000 to 167.03/100 000.The standardized mortality rate of 96.07/100 000 to 105.11/100 000.Air pollutants was more strongly associated with coronary heart disease mortality.By single GAM analysis,a 10 tg/m3 increase in SO2,PM10 and NO2,which accounted for 1.25％(95％CI:0.75％-1.75％),0.65％ (95％CI:0.51％-0.79％) and 1.04％ (95％CI:0.52％-1.55％) increased in daily mortality.By multiple GAM analysis,a 10 μ g/m3 increase in SO2 and PM10 which accounted for 0.86％ (95％ CI:0.60％-1.12％) and 0.40％ (95％ CI:0.06％-0.75％) increased the daily mortality.NO2 was not significantly associated with coronary heart disease mortality rates,but factors as low temperature,low wind speed and population size were (P＜0.05).Conclusion Results from this study showed that air pollution was a risk factor for coronary heart disease mortality in Tianjin.
ABSTRACT
<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To investigate the effect of air pollution on stroke mortality in Tianjin, China, and to provide basis for stroke control and prevention.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>Total data of mortality surveillance were collected by Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Meteorological data and atmospheric pollution data were from Tianjin Meteorological Bureau and Tianjin Environmental Monitoring Center, respectively. Generalized additive Poisson regression model was used in time-series analysis on the relationship between air pollution and stroke mortality in Tianjin. Single-pollutant analysis and multi-pollutant analysis were performed after adjustment for confounding factors such as meteorological factors, long-term trend of death, "days of the week" effect and population.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>The crude death rates of stroke in Tianjin were from 136.67 in 2001 to 160.01/100000 in 2009, with an escalating trend (P = 0.000), while the standardized mortality ratios of stroke in Tianjin were from 138.36 to 99.14/100000, with a declining trend (P = 0.000). An increase of 10 µg/m³ in daily average concentrations of atmospheric SO₂, NO₂ and PM₁₀ led to 1.0105 (95%CI: 1.0060 ∼ 1.0153), 1.0197 (95%CI: 1.0149 ∼ 1.0246) and 1.0064 (95%CI: 1.0052 ∼ 1.0077), respectively, in relative risks of stroke mortality. SO₂ effect peaked after 1-day exposure, while NO₂ and PM₁₀ effects did within 1 day.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>Air pollution in Tianjin may increase the risk of stroke mortality in the population and induce acute onset of stroke. It is necessary to carry out air pollution control and allocate health resources rationally to reduce the hazard of stroke mortality.</p>
Subject(s)
Humans , Air Pollutants , Air Pollution , China , Epidemiology , Environmental Monitoring , Models, Theoretical , Particulate Matter , Poisson Distribution , Stroke , Epidemiology , Mortality , Survival Rate , Time FactorsABSTRACT
To develop a model for forecasting the mortality of stroke in Tianjin,China.The time series of stroke mortality from 1999 Jan.to 2006 Dec.in Tianjin city were subjected.Circle distribution analysis was used to verify the trend of time concentration.Multiple seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model [ARIMA (p,d,q) (P,D,Q)s],based on model identification,estimation and verification of parameter,and analysis of the fitting of model,was established.Most of the deaths from stroke occurred in January and had a cycle of 12 months.An AR/MA model (0,1,0)×(0,1,1)12 was established(1-B)(1-B12) lnxt=0.001+(1-0.537 B12)εt.Conclusion: ARIMA & Circle Distribution analysis is an important tool for stroke mortality analysis.Potentially it has a high practical value on the surveillance,forecasting and prevention of stroke mortality.