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Objective@#To analyze the related factors of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma and precancerous lesions among residents aged 40-69 years old in rural areas of Shandong Province. @*Methods@#In October 2018, 300 villages in 13 counties of the Shandong upper gastrointestinal cancerearly diagnosis and treatment projectin 2017 were selected as research areas, and 30 400 residents aged 40-69 were recruited in this study. The demographic characteristics, health status and lifestyle information were collected through the questionnaire survey, and endoscope iodine staining and indicative biopsy methods were used for cancer screening among eligible people.The multivariate logistic regression model was used to analyze the risk factors for esophageal cancer and precancerous lesions. @*Results@#The subjects in this study were (56.42±7.24) years old, including 13 193 males (43.40%).There were 936 cases of esophageal cancer and precancerous lesions (3.08%), including 521 males and 415 females.Compared with women, 40-49 years old, high level education, drinking tap water, regular intake of meat, eggs and milk, and family average annual income more than 30 000 RMB, men (OR=1.90, 95%CI: 1.65-2.19), 60-69 years old (OR=5.28, 95%CI: 4.11-7.30), primary school education or below (OR=1.50, 95%CI: 1.20-1.89), drinking groundwater (OR=1.71, 95%CI: 1.38-2.13), never eating meat, eggs and milk (OR=1.48, 95%CI: 1.22-1.80), and family average annual income less than 30 000 RMB (OR=1.41, 95%CI: 1.16-1.70) would increase the risk of esophageal cancer and precancerous lesions. @*Conclusion@#The gender, age, educational level, annual household income, drinking water source, the frequency of eating meat, egg and milk were related to the occurrence of esophageal cancer and precancerous lesions among 40-69 years old residents in rural areas of Shandong Province.
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Objective To systematically review the worldwide simulation model studies on the natural history of breast cancer and to summarize related parameters.Methods A structured literature search was conducted in PubMed and the Cochrane Library to identify articles during 1980-2015.Articles were screened independently by two researchers.Health states in the natural history and relevant parameters were extracted.Results A total of 36 studies were included for analysis,within the earliest one was published in 1990.Most studies were from Europe and America countries,and 2 studies from China.Markov model was mostly applied to evaluating breast cancer screening programs (n=32).Reported health status included “healthy” (n=36),ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS,n=17),invasive breast cancer (IBC,n=36),and death (n=27).There were two definite classifications for IBC,tumor size (n=9) and TNM staging (n=9,3 studies reported transition rates).The median (range) of annual transition rates from DCIS to stage-I IBC,I to Ⅱ,Ⅱ to Ⅲ,Ⅲ to Ⅳ were 0.279 (0.259-0.299),0.150 (0.069-0.430),0.100 (0.060-0.128) and 0.210 (0.010-0.625),respectively.A total of 15 studies reported the mean duration from predinical to clinical stage for IBC was 1.95-4.70 years,which gradually increased with age,and 7 studies reported that for DCIS.Conclusions Despite closer attention was paid to breast cancer natural history models,in recent years atypical hyperplasia has been neglected.Data on the mean duration of DCIS requires reasonable conversion.Various classifications for IBC exist whereas transition rates are limited.Current findings would be valuable references but challenging for the Chinese-population specific natural history model,development.
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Objective To systematically review the worldwide simulation model studies on the natural history of breast cancer and to summarize related parameters.Methods A structured literature search was conducted in PubMed and the Cochrane Library to identify articles during 1980-2015.Articles were screened independently by two researchers.Health states in the natural history and relevant parameters were extracted.Results A total of 36 studies were included for analysis,within the earliest one was published in 1990.Most studies were from Europe and America countries,and 2 studies from China.Markov model was mostly applied to evaluating breast cancer screening programs (n=32).Reported health status included “healthy” (n=36),ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS,n=17),invasive breast cancer (IBC,n=36),and death (n=27).There were two definite classifications for IBC,tumor size (n=9) and TNM staging (n=9,3 studies reported transition rates).The median (range) of annual transition rates from DCIS to stage-I IBC,I to Ⅱ,Ⅱ to Ⅲ,Ⅲ to Ⅳ were 0.279 (0.259-0.299),0.150 (0.069-0.430),0.100 (0.060-0.128) and 0.210 (0.010-0.625),respectively.A total of 15 studies reported the mean duration from predinical to clinical stage for IBC was 1.95-4.70 years,which gradually increased with age,and 7 studies reported that for DCIS.Conclusions Despite closer attention was paid to breast cancer natural history models,in recent years atypical hyperplasia has been neglected.Data on the mean duration of DCIS requires reasonable conversion.Various classifications for IBC exist whereas transition rates are limited.Current findings would be valuable references but challenging for the Chinese-population specific natural history model,development.
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Objective@#To parameterize the 1-year transition probabilities between different health status of the natural history of breast cancer based on the data of randomized controlled trial of X-ray mammography screening worldwide.@*Methods@#Based on the breast cancer screening randomized controlled trials defined by a mammography screening review from the Cochrane 2013 and the International Agency for Research on Cancer, a systematic review was initiated in PubMed by searching names of the key investigators of the trials, combined with the diseases, screening intervention and outcome indicators. If applicable, all the original cumulative incidence rates were converted into one-year transition rate, using the life-table approach considering time length of follow-up.@*Results@#A total of 23 reports from 9 RCTs were included. The data on transition rate between the healthy status to precancerous lesions was absent. The 1-year transition rate from health to carcinoma in situ was 17.78 to 50.21 per 100 000 persons in the intervention group and 9.16 to 26.84 per 100 000 persons in the control group. Correspondingly, the 1-year transition rate from health to breast cancer (including carcinoma in situ and invasive cancer) were estimated as 143.75 to 316.97 per 100 000 persons in the intervention group, and 141.45 to 288.84 per 100 000 persons in the control group. Furthermore, the transition rate from the healthy status to invasive breast cancer was 159.79 to 264.60 per 100 000 persons in intervention group and 170.12 to 255.33 per 100 000 persons in control group. The transition rate from carcinoma in situ to invasive breast cancer varied among different pathological types.@*Conclusions@#The most common natural history states of reported by the included trials involved the full healthy status, carcinoma in situ and invasive breast cancer. The findings of transition rates between different health statuses will be informative for future model development of natural history studies of breast cancer. Information in relation to breast precancerous lesions still limited and needs to be further addressed.
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<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To investigate the prevalence of esophageal and gastric cardia cancer and various precancerous lesions in high-risk rural areas.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>Random cluster sampling method was used to select people aged 40-69 years of some natural villages as screening objects in Feicheng, Shangdong province, from 2006 to 2012. The screening program was conducted by endoscopy with iodine staining and indicative biopsy followed by pathological examination.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>A total of 24 759 subjects were screened during 2006-2012 years. The positive detection rates of esophagus and gastric cardia cancers were 1.37% and 0.42%, respectively, the early diagnosis rates were 84.71% and 65.05%, and the treatment rates were 92.65% and 92.23%, respectively. The detection rates of all lesions in males were significantly higher than those in females (P < 0.05), and were gradually increased with age (P < 0.05). The time trend analysis showed that detection rates of all lesions in the two sites showed no significant changes during this period, and the detection rates of esophageal lesions were higher than those of gastric cardia.</p><p><b>CONCLUSIONS</b>There are considerable numbers of patients with precancerous lesions in the general population from the high risk areas. Men and the elderly are the key populations calling for cancer control programs. Endoscopy using iodine staining is an effective method to increase the detection rate of precancerous lesions and cancers. The root of mucosal fold in gastric cardia must be carefully observed so as to increase the detection rate of early gastric cardia lesions.</p>