The development of patient-tailored asthma prediction model for the alarm system

PURPOSE: The increased incidence of asthma due to rising allergic diseases requires the prevention of worsening asthma. It is necessary to develop a patient-tailored asthma prediction model. METHODS: We developed causative factors for the asthma forecast system: infant and young children (0–2 years), preschool children (3–6 years), school children and adolescents (7–18 years), adults (19–64 years), old aged adult (>64 years). We used the Emergency Department code data which charged the short-acting bronchodilator (Salbutamol sulfate) from Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service for the development of asthma prediction models. Three kinds of statistical models (multiple regression models, logistic regression models, and decision tree models) were applied to 40 study groups (4 seasons, 2 sex, and 5 age groups) separately. RESULTS: The 3 kinds of models were compared based on model assessment measures. Estimated logistic regression models or decision tree models were recommended as binary forecast models. To improve the predictability, a threshold was used to generate binary forecasts. CONCLUSION: We suggest the binary forecast models as a patient-tailored asthma prediction system for this category. It may be needed the extended study duration and long-term data analysis for asthmatic patients for the further improvement of asthma prediction models.

Evaluation of the association between pollen count and the outbreak of allergic disease

PURPOSE: This study focused on the evaluation of the relation between pollen concentration and the outbreak of allergic disease (symptom index), and this outcome would be necessary to upgrade risk grade for the pollen forecasting system. METHODS: Airborne particles carrying allergens, such as pollen, were collected daily at the Seoul and Guri area by using 7-day Burkard samplers for 6 years. A total of 596 Subjects were recruited from Hanyang University Seoul Hospital (n=144 for spring, n=139 for autumn), and Hanyang University Guri Hospital (n=157 for spring, n=156 for autumn). Symptom index was evaluated and recorded by phone calling to study subjects daily or asking questionnaire when they visit outpatient clinic every week. Statistical analysis of data was performed by using correlation coefficients and regression models with time series graph. RESULTS: Two peak seasons of pollen concentration were May and September in Korea. In skin prick tests, the sensitization rate to ragweed pollen was gradually increased in children. In the same period, sensitization rates to airborne pollen, especially oak, birch for spring, and Japanese hop for autumn were increased annually. There was a significantly relationship between symptom index of allergic patients and allergic pollen concentrations in this study. Especially symptom index was significantly correlated to the concentration of oak pollen of day 1 in spring and to the concentration of Japanese hop pollen of day 0 in autumn. CONCLUSION: Sensitization rates to pollens increased annually. There is a significant relationship between allergy symptom index and pollen concentration. There remains to confirm the Korean own risk grade of pollen allergy.