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Objective: To forecast the visceral leishmaniasis cases using autoregress integrated moving average (ARIMA) and hybrid ARIMA-EGARCH model, which offers a scientific basis to control visceral leishmaniasis spread in Kashgar Prefecture of Xinjiang, China. Methods: The data used in this paper are monthly visceral leishmaniasis cases in the Kashgar Prefecture of Xinjiang from 2004 to 2016. The sample data between 2004 and 2015 were used for the estimation to choose the best model and the sample data in 2016 were used for the forecast. Time series of visceral leishmaniasis started on 1 January 2004 and ended on 31 December 2016, consisting of 1 790 observations reported in Kashgar Prefecture. Results: For Xinjiang, the total number of reported cases were 2 187, the male-to-female ratio of cases was 1:1.42. Patients aged between 0 and 10 years accounted for 82.72% of all reported cases and the largest percentage of visceral leishmaniasis cases was detected among scattered children who accounted for 68.82%. The monthly incidences fitted by ARIMA (2, 1, 2) (1, 1, 1)12 model were consistent with the real data collected from 2004 to 2015. However, the predicted cases failed to comply with the observed case number; we then attempted to establish a hybrid ARIMA-EGARCH model to fit visceral leishmaniasis. Finally, the ARIMA (2, 1, 2) (1, 1, 1)12- EGARCH (1, 1) model showed a good estimation when dealing with volatility clustering in the data series. Conclusions: The combined model has been determined as the best prediction model with the root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 7.23% in the validation phase, which means that this model has high validity and rationality and can be used for short-term prediction of visceral leishmaniasis and could be applied to the prevention and control of the disease.
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Objective: To forecast the visceral leishmaniasis cases using autoregress integrated moving average (ARIMA) and hybrid ARIMA-EGARCH model, which offers a scientific basis to control visceral leishmaniasis spread in Kashgar Prefecture of Xinjiang, China. Methods: The data used in this paper are monthly visceral leishmaniasis cases in the Kashgar Prefecture of Xinjiang from 2004 to 2016. The sample data between 2004 and 2015 were used for the estimation to choose the best model and the sample data in 2016 were used for the forecast. Time series of visceral leishmaniasis started on 1 January 2004 and ended on 31 December 2016, consisting of 1 790 observations reported in Kashgar Prefecture. Results: For Xinjiang, the total number of reported cases were 2 187, the male-to-female ratio of cases was 1:1.42. Patients aged between 0 and 10 years accounted for 82.72% of all reported cases and the largest percentage of visceral leishmaniasis cases was detected among scattered children who accounted for 68.82%. The monthly incidences fitted by ARIMA (2, 1, 2) (1, 1, 1)
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Objective To quantitatively analyze the epidemic situation of tuberculosis(TB)by modeling the data of tuberculosis in prefectures of Xinjiang,and predict the new cases of tuberculosis in prefectures of Xinjiang.Methods A dynamic model was used to fit the data of TB in 14 prefectures in Xinjiang from 2005 to 2014,the results of the fitting were verified by tuberculosis data in 2015－2017,verified results were evaluated,estimated values and basic reproductive numbers (R0)of parameters in each region were obtained,data of new TB in 2018－2022 were predic-ted.Results The verification of TB data in 2015－2017 showed that the actual values fell within the 95% confidence interval of the predictive value curve,model was fit well.R0in Southern Kashgar was 1 1.38 (95%CI:1 1.33－11.50),R0in Urumqi City in Eastern Xinjiang and Ili Kazak Autonomous Prefecture in Northern Xinjiang were 5.46 (95% CI :5.28－5.50)and 2.22 (95% CI :2.18－2.28)respectively.The epidemic situation of TB in Southern Xinjiang was more serious than that in Northern and Eastern Xinjiang,epidemic situation of TB in Kash- gar Prefecture was most serious.The predicted results showed that the number of new TB from 2018 to 2022 will slowly grow in most prefectures.Conclusion The dynamical model of TB fits well and is feasible in this study,it can be used for prediction of new TB cases,intervention and management in Southern Xinjiang should be strength-ened to control the prevalence of TB.
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<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To evaluate the therapeutic effect of transurethral enucleation of the prostate for treatment of benign prostatic hyperplasia in patients below 50 years of age.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>Twelve patients with benign prostatic hyperplasia patients (mean age 48.2 years, range 46-49 years) underwent transurethral enucleation of the prostate. The middle lobe and two lateral lobes were enucleated with the preprosthetic sphincter and anterior fibromuscular stroma preserved during the operation. The patients were followed up to evaluate the lower urinary tract symptoms and sexual activity after the surgery.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>The 12 patients were followed up for 3 to 6 months. The symptoms of lower urinary tract obstruction were improved obviously after the surgery, and the International Prostate Symptom Score (IPSS) decreased from 24±5.1 to 8.8±1.4 and peak urine flow rate (Qmax) increased from 8.1±4.2 ml/s to 20.1±4.2 ml/s at 3 months postoperatively. All the 12 cases had residual urine (12-44 ml) preoperatively, but after the surgery, only 4 still had residual urine of less than 30 ml. All the patients had normal erection function postoperatively, and 10 had normal ejaculation; the other 2 patients recovered normal ejaculation 3 and 5 months after the operation, respectively.</p><p><b>CONCLUSIONS</b>Transurethral enucleation can alleviate the low urinary tract obstruction symptom and improve the sexual function by avoiding preprosthetic sphincter injury in relatively young patients with benign prostatic hyperplasia.</p>