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Objective To predict monthly incidents of extended spectrum β-Lactamases (ESBLs)-producing Escherichia coli in Zhejiang Hospital by establishing multiple seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, so as to provide scientific evidence for reducing the incidents of nosocomial infection of ESBLs producing Escherichia coli. Methods Multiple seasonal ARIMA model was established by monthly records of ESBLs producing Escherichia coli from 2010 to 2016 in Zhejiang hospital. Monthly incidents of ESBLs producing Escherichia coli from 2017 to February 2018 were used to verify the predicted result. The predictions were evaluated by models of mean absolute percent error (MAPE) and bayesian information criterion (BIC) . Results The optional model for the monthly incidence from 2010 to 2016 was ARIMA (0, 1, 1) (0, 1, 1)12. The MAPE was 14.76, BIC was 2.01, and the Ljung-Box statistics value Q was 16.79 (P=0.40) . These parameters suggested a good model fitting. The average relative error between the predictive value and the actual value of the monthly incidents ESBLs producing Escherichia coli from 2017 to February 2018 was 14.08%.The actual values were within the 95% confidence interval. Conclusion The multiple seasonal ARIMA model of ARIMA (0, 1, 1) (0, 1, 1 )12 fits and can be used for short-term prediction and dynamic analysis of the incidents of ESBLs producing Escherichia coli in Zhejiang Hospital.
ABSTRACT
Objective@#To evaluate the impact of CO2 pneumoperitoneum in operating rooms on the health of medical staffs.@*Methods@#In June 2016, the thirty-three medical staffs in operating rooms were chosen as the object of the research.Seventeen people who took part in the pneumoperitoneum operation were selected as a exposure group and sixteen people who took part in the laparotomy operation were selected as a control group.Vital signs and arterial blood gases of medical staffs in the two groups were both measured in pre-operation and post-operation. Occupational Health Questionnaires were conducted to collect information on age, weight and postoperative symptoms. The level of CO2 in operating room was determined by a portable infrared CO2 analyzer.@*Results@#Compared with the control group, the concentration of CO2 in the exposed group was higherat T1, T2 and T3 (t=22.227, 13.583, 17.408, P<0.05) . Heart rates and PaCO2 in the exposure group raised greatly (t=2.132, 2.129, P<0.05) , while pH decreased (t=-3.015, P<0.05) . The differences between the two groups were statistically significant.@*Conclusion@#The increase of mild acidosis and thesense of job burnout in medical staffs could be caused by CO2 pollution in the operating rooms.
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Objective To investigate the prevalence of adolescent scoliosis in Guangzhou for development of effective prevention and treatment program to the disease. Methods From November2007 to July 2009, 30 142 students between 7 to 20 years old in primary and junior middle schools received physical check-up for detection of scoliosis through physical and radiographic examination.Results 211 cases were diagnosed as scoliosis (Cobb angle≥10°) , with the prevalence rate as 0.70%. 192 patients with idiopathic scoliosis (IS) were detected, accounting for 91.00%. There were 19 cases of congenital scoliosis, accounting for 9.00%. Sex ratio of scoliosis was 180/31. The prevalence of scoliosis was significantly lower in boys than that in girls (x2= 112.332, P＜0.001 ).Conclusion The crude prevalence of adolescent scoliosis was 0.70% in Guangzhou with majority of idiopathic scoliosis. Investigation on scoliosis among school-age population seemed to be important for the purposes of early diagnosis, selection of effective prevention and treatment.