ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: This study aimed to identify the predictors of hospital mortality in children with acute infective disorders of the central nervous system using an aggregate Modified Glasgow Coma Scale (MGCS) score and other clinical variables assessed within 24 hours of hospitalization. METHODS: We did a prospective cohort study in a teaching and referral hospital in Lucknow, North India. Consecutive children aged 1 month to 12 years of age admitted with acute infective disorders of the central nervous system were included in the study. The diagnosis was based on the presence of symptoms of fever, headache or irritability with or without vomiting, and either altered sensorium or first episode of seizures or both. The main outcome measure was hospital-based mortality. RESULTS: Of the 230 patients included in the study, 42.2% had pyogenic meningitis, 36.9% had tuberculous basal meningitis and 20.9% had meningo-encephalitis. There were 43 (18.7%) deaths of which 44.2% were within 3 days of admission. Death was associated with the day 1 aggregate MGCS score only. The area under the curve of four strata of aggregate MGCS was 0.63 (SE 0.05). The likelihood ratio for discharge with an aggregate MGCS score of < 5 was 0.52 (95% CI:0.29-0.95) and > 10 was 5.52 (9% CI:1.02-31.96). CONCLUSION: The MGCS can be used to predict discharge in patients with acute infective disorders of the central nervous system within 24 hours of hospitalization. The scale is simple, can be applied at the bedside and does not depend on any investigations. In developing countries with limited investigative facilities it can be used for identification and selective referral of patients with a higher risk of death to specialized centres. This study validates the predictive value of the MGCS.