ABSTRACT
@#Abstract: Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) in Ankang City from 2011 to 2021, so as to provide a scientific basis for the formulation of PTB prevention and control strategy. Methods Descriptive statistics were used to analyze the epidemiological characteristics of PTB in Ankang City from 2011 to 2021, and a time series model was established to quantitatively predict the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in 2023. Results The incidence rate in Ankang City showed a significant upward trend from 2011 to 2017, and a more obvious downward trend in 2017-2021 (P<0.05), and the decrease rate in 2021 was 40.36% compared with that in 2017. The proportion of etiological positivity increased from 12.5% in 2014 to over 50.00% after 2019. The incidence season was mainly concentrated in the first quarter, accounting for 28.39% of the annual incidence. High incidence areas were concentrated in the south of Ankang: Langao County, Ziyang County and Zhenping County, with 128.32/100 000, 117.07/100 000 and 110.44/100 000, respectively. Low incidence areas were located in the north of Ankang: Ningshan County, with 60.62/100 000. Farmers and students were the high incidence groups, accounting for 81.80% and 4.97% of the total cases respectively. The incidence of young children was relatively low, but cases were reported every year. The incidence rate of male was 2.39 times that of female. The age of onset increased significantly from 15 years old, and the peak incidence was in the age group of 60-<80 years old, followed by the age group of 45-<60 years old, the average annual incidence was 136.44/100 000 and 104.47/100 000, respectively. The model ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)12 predicted that the incidence of the disease generally increased from October 2022 to March 2023, then steadily decreased, and increased again in December. Conclusions The incidence of tuberculosis varies in different areas of Ankang City, and males, farmers, students and the elderly are all factors of high incidence of tuberculosis. Therefore, different prevention and control strategies should be adopted according to the characteristics of population in different areas. The number of cases in Ankang City in 2023 showed an overall downward trend, which can provide a reference for the prevention and control of PTB.
ABSTRACT
Objective@#To investigate risk factors and epidemiological characteristics of bacillary dysentery outbreaks in three schools, and to provide scientific basis for the prevention and control of the epidemic in the future.@*Methods@#Case definition was established. All suspected, possible and confirmed cases of all students and faculty members from 3 schools (A, B, C) were selected for epidemiological investigation. Control group was used for case-control analysis, and relevant samples were collected for laboratory testing.@*Results@#A total of 132 cases were found in 3 schools, all of which were from students, with the incidence rate of 17.74%. The morbidity in kindergarten A was 20.00%, in center primary school B it was 21.74%, and in junior middle school C it was 11.61%. Cohort studies and casecontrol studies suggested that schools are exposed places and that washing hands with raw water in schools was possible risk factor [OR(95%CI) =4.50(1.01-20.11)]. Nine stool samples were tested in laboratory, among which 8 were positive for Shigella(88.99%), and Shigella was detected in the end nodes of school s pipeline network, the water samples from canteen bucket, and the floor drains of sewer pipe.@*Conclusion@#The bacillary dysentery outbreaks in 3 schools was caused by Shigella, which may be due to fecal contamination of domestic water in 3 schools before the start of the school year. It is suggested to strengthen the management of centralized water supply and construction in rural areas, intensify the supervision at all levels, and sanitation and disinfection before school opens at all levels.