ABSTRACT
Objective@#To describe the spatial and temporal characteristics of human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome(HIV/AIDS) in permanent residents and migrants in Shanghai during 2005 to 2015 and provide suggestions for the HIV/AIDS prevention.@*Methods@#The data of HIV/AIDS was collected from the National HIV/AIDS Comprehensive Information Management System based on report date. The population data was collected from the statistical yearbook of Shanghai. Spatial analysis was conducted using the hotspots model in ArcGIS. SaTScan software was employed to determine the distribution of HIV clusters in space, time or both.@*Results@#During 2005 to 2015, a total of 13 498 cases of HIV/AIDS were reported in Shanghai. The prevalence of HIV increased from 0.025/105 (450 cases) to 0.093/105 (2 236 cases). The prevalence of AIDS increased from 0.002/105 (32 cases) to 0.028/105 (683 cases). Hotspot analysis showed that the hot spot of incidence of migrants had moved from Hongkou (2005) (Z=2.96, P=0.003) to Changning (2006-2015) (all Z>1.96, P<0.05); whereas the hot spot of incidence of permanent residents had moving from Jinshan (2005-2007) (all Z>2.58, P<0.01) to downtown area (2006-2015) (all Z>1.96, P<0.05). The spatial high clusters of HIV and AIDS were same, including Huangpu, Xuhui, Changning, Jingan, Putuo, Hongkou and Yangpu; The temporal high clusters of HIV cases among permanent residents were 2011 to 2015, and the spatial clusters were Huangpu, Xuhui, Changning, Jingan. The temporal high clusters of HIV cases among migrants were 2014 to 2015, and the spatial clusters was Xuhui, Changning, Jingan.@*Conclusion@#The total HIV/AIDS incidence in Shanghai was clustered in downtown area. The cluster of the incidence of the permanent residents had moving towards that of migrants, indicating the cluster area deserves a close surveillance.
ABSTRACT
Objective To describe and analyze the epidemiologic and spatio-temporal characteristics of hepatitis E in China from 2004 to 2014.Methods Data on the incidence of hepatitis E in 31 provinces (municipality and autonomous region) from 2004 to 2014,were collected.Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) was applied to decompose the time-series data to accurately describe the trend of hepatitis E incidence.Mathematic model was used to estimate the annual change of incidence in each age group and the whole province.Software ArcGIS 10.1 and SaTScan 9.01 were used to analyze the spatio-temporal clusters.Results During 2004-2014,a total of 245 414 hepatitis E cases were reported in China.The overall incidence showed a slight increase (OR=1.05,95％CI:1.03-1.10).Incidence rates on hepatitis E were discovered different across the provinces,with significant increase appearing in the southern,central and northwestern areas.The highest increase was seen in the elderly,especially in the 65-69 and 70-74 year-olds.Results from the Local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the “high-high cluster” was moving from the north to the south and the “low-low cluster” disappeared as time went by.Data from Spatio-temporal scanning showed that there were five spatio-temporal clustering areas across the country.Conclusion The overall incidence of hepatitis E was on the rise from 2004 to 2014,in China,but with differences seen across the areas and age groups.
ABSTRACT
Objective To describe and analyze the epidemiologic and spatio-temporal characteristics of hepatitis E in China from 2004 to 2014.Methods Data on the incidence of hepatitis E in 31 provinces (municipality and autonomous region) from 2004 to 2014,were collected.Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) was applied to decompose the time-series data to accurately describe the trend of hepatitis E incidence.Mathematic model was used to estimate the annual change of incidence in each age group and the whole province.Software ArcGIS 10.1 and SaTScan 9.01 were used to analyze the spatio-temporal clusters.Results During 2004-2014,a total of 245 414 hepatitis E cases were reported in China.The overall incidence showed a slight increase (OR=1.05,95％CI:1.03-1.10).Incidence rates on hepatitis E were discovered different across the provinces,with significant increase appearing in the southern,central and northwestern areas.The highest increase was seen in the elderly,especially in the 65-69 and 70-74 year-olds.Results from the Local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the “high-high cluster” was moving from the north to the south and the “low-low cluster” disappeared as time went by.Data from Spatio-temporal scanning showed that there were five spatio-temporal clustering areas across the country.Conclusion The overall incidence of hepatitis E was on the rise from 2004 to 2014,in China,but with differences seen across the areas and age groups.