ABSTRACT
Objective:To investigate the role of a simple Nomogram model in evaluating the severity of mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia (MPP) in adults.Methods:The clinical data of 162 patients with MPP who received treatment in Wenzhou Central Hospital from March 2015 to October 2022 were retrospectively analyzed. These patients were divided into a severe group ( n = 67) and a common group ( n = 95) according to whether they were diagnosed with severe MPP. The clinical data of patients were recorded. Fourteen clinical variables were screened, including age, sex, onset season, fever, heat peak, fever duration, cough duration, white blood cell count, percentage of neutrophils, percentage of lymphocytes, hemoglobin, platelet count, C-reactive protein, and procalcitonin. Multivariate logistic regression analysis of statistically significant variables in univariate analysis was performed. The Nomogram model was constructed with the R language software package (version 3.6.2). The model was verified with a calibration curve and receiver operating characteristic curve. Results:Univariate analysis results showed that in the severe group, the fever peak ( Z = 5.03, P < 0.001) was higher, fever duration ( χ2 = 27.55, P < 0.001), and cough duration ( χ2 = 28.72, P < 0.001) were longer, white cell count ( t = 2.93, P = 0.004), percentage of neutrophils ( t = 9.08, P < 0.001), C-reactive protein ( t = 35.05, P < 0.001), and procalcitonin level ( t = 15.09, P < 0.001) were greater compared with the common group. The percentage of lymphocytes ( t = 1.16, P < 0.001), hemoglobin level ( t = 1.22, P < 0.001), and platelet count ( t = 2.82, P < 0.001) in the severe group were significantly lower than those in the common group. Multivariate logistic regression analysis results showed that heat peak, cough duration, and C-reactive protein were positively correlated with the severity of MPP (all P < 0.05). The percentage of lymphocytes, hemoglobin concentration, and platelet count were negatively correlated with the severity of MPP (all P < 0.05). The establishment and validation results of the Nomogram model showed that the accuracy of the model was good, with a sensitivity of 88.73%, a specificity of 77.61%, and a C-index of 0.904. Conclusion:Heat peak, cough duration, percentage of lymphocytes, platelet count, and C-reactive protein are closely related to the severity of early MPP. A simple Nomogram model can be one of the tools for early assessment of the severity of MPP.
ABSTRACT
Objective To assess the factors associated with the restoration of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) and 2-year survival prognosis in patients with cardiac arrest (CA) after acute myocardial infarction (AMI),and after ROSC,the effects of various factors on midian survival time and on 2-year survival.Methods In a registry study from January 2005 to January 2015,all consecutive AMI-induced CA patients treated with cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) admitted to our hospital were enrolled.The survivors were followed-up for 2 years.Univariate analysis was applied to evaluate factors associated with rate of ROSC and 2-year survival.Multivariable logistic regression analysis was applied to evaluate statistically significant factors in the univariate analysis.Medians with inter-quartile ranges were used to describe 2-year survival time affected by various factors after ROSC.Kaplan-Meier survival curve analysis was used to evaluate the effect of factors on 2-year survival.Results A total of 254 cases with CA after AMI were enrolled,including 129 cases of ROSC and 71 cases of 2-year survival.Univariate analysis showed age ≥ 70 years,CA occurred during 22:00-8:00,the duration time ofCPR ≥ 15 min and adrenaline dosage ＞ 5 mg were unfavorable predictors of ROSC;while,left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) ≥ 40％ before CA,shockable rhythm and percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) therapy were favorable predictors.Besides,age ≥ 70 years,intubation during CPR,adrenaline dosage ＞ 5 mg and cardiogenic shock were unfavorable predictors of 2-year survival;While,male,normal daily activity before CA and PCI treatment were favorable predictors.Multivariable analysis showed age,the duration of CPR,adrenaline dosage,LVEF before CA,the rhythm during CPR and PCI therapy were independent predictors of ROSC.Age and PCI therapy were independent predictors of 2-year survival.Among patients,the survival time was affected by various factors after ROSC,and the factors with minimum 25％ and small median value were associated with cardiac rupture,cancer,adrenaline dosage ＞ 5 mg and cardiogenic shock.The factor with maximum 25％ value was PCI treatment (216 days).Kaplan-Meier survival analysis suggested that age ≥ 70 years was an unfavorable factor of 2-years survival (Log-rank test,P=0.007);while,PCI treatment was a favorable factor (Log-rank test,P＜0.01).PCI-related prognosis analysis showed that the effectiveness of PCI was related to the timing of PCI,the number of infarctrelated artery and the difference in culprit lesion.Conclusions The age ≥ 70 years was disadvantageous to both ROSC and 2-year survival.PCI treatment was favorable to both ROSC and 2-year survival.