ABSTRACT
Objective To predict the monthly incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) in China by using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and provide evidence for prevention and control of HFMD. Methods The monthly incidence data of HFMD in China from 2008 to 2016 were collected from the Public Health Science data Center. The incidence database was established by Excel 2007 and graphed. SAS 9.1 was used to construct the ARIMA model, based on the data of the monthly reported incidence of HFMD in China from January 2008 to December 2015, and then the data in 2016 were used to verify the predicted results. The monthly incidence in 2017 was predicted in the same way.The difference was statistically significant when P<0.05. Result The model predicting monthly incidence of HFMD in China is ARIMA ((12), 2, 0) sparse coefficient and residuals is white noise. The parameters were as follows: moted mean squared error=3.6490, mean absolute error=2.62, mean absolute percentage error=28.24%. Conclusion The sparse coefficient model could well simulate the trend of HFMD case in time series, which has good reference of early warning and prevention of HFMD.
ABSTRACT
Objective To explore the effects of high birth weight (HBW) on blood pressure (BP) during childhood.Methods A total of 1435 couples with high or normal birth weight were selected from a birth cohort who were born between 1993 and 1995 in Wuxi,China and,followed between 2005 and 2007.A questionnaire survey was conducted,with their height,weight and blood pressure measured.Results The medians of systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic BP (DBP)of HBW group were 100 mm Hg (Q1-Q3∶90-110 mm Hg),64 mm Hg (Q1-Q3∶60-70 mm Hg) in the high birth weight group,respectively,while they were 100 mm Hg (Q1-Q3∶90-108 mm Hg),62 mm Hg (Q1-Q3∶60-70 mm Hg) in the normal weight group.No statistical significant difference was found between the exposed and unexposed groups.The proportion of elevated BP,including prehypertension and hypertension,in exposed group was 13.66％,a bit higher than that (11.57％) of the unexposed group (P ＝ 0.055).The relative risk (RR) of HBW on elevated BP was 1.06 (0.92-1.21),after adjusted the following parameters as BMI in childhood,sex,age during the follow-up period,age of mother at delivery,gestational age,type of feeding at infancy,dietary habit as well as the frequencies of exercise during childhood.Conclusion No statistically significant correlation was found between high birth weight and blood pressure of children.