ABSTRACT
Objective To compare the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and PT in survival prediction of hepatitis B patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure. Methods One hundred and thirty-nine hepatitis B patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure were divided into survival and death group, and evaluated by MELD and FT. The area under ROC curve was used to compare the MELD and PT. The mortality was observed within 3 months. Results The MELD score and PT of survival group was 25.09 ± 3.92 and (26.46 ± 6.46) seconds respectively, and those for the death group were 36.25 ± 6.42 and (40.78 ± 10.80) seconds. The differences were of statistical significance ( P < 0.01 ). MELD score showed significant correlations with PT(r =0.824, P <0.01). The area under ROC curve was 0.936 (95% CI 0.895 ± 0.977 ) on MELD score and 0. 890 (95 % CI 0.839 ± 0.941 ) on PT, and there was no significant difference between them. Conclusions Both MELD score and PT can accurately predict the short-term prognosis of hepatitis B patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure. The validity of prognosis by MELD is similar to PT. The mortality increases with the MELD score and PT increasing.
ABSTRACT
Objective To study the clinical practical use of the model for end-stage liver disease(MELD) and assess its validity in predicting the prognosis of the.chronic severe hepatitis patients.Methods The clinical data of 391 patients with chronic severe hepatitis among 2003～2005 in our hospital were analyzed,and they were graded with MELD formula.These patients were divided into plasma exchange group and none plasma exchange group according to plasma exchange treatment or not.The death rate was observed within three months.The validity of the model in predicting the prognosis of the patients with severe hepatitis was determined by the concordance(c)-statistic.Results 236 patients died within three-months and the mortality was 60.6%.The mortality of patients in PE group whose MELD score were less than 30 and 30～40 was 25% and 75% respectively,but in non-PE group they were 42.0%,90.7% respectively,there were significant difference between PE group and non-PE group(P0.05).The optimal cut-off values of MELD to predict the prognosis of patients were 30 in PE group whose sensitivity and specificity were 66.7% and 86.4%,and its c-statistic was 0.823(95% CI 0.734～0.912);and in non-PE group they were 27,76.4%,79.1% and 0.832(95% CI 0.787～0.877) respectively.Conclusions The mortality of the patient with chronic severe hepatitis increases with the increase in the MELD score.The MELD can accurately predict the short-term prognosis of patients with chronic severe hepatitis.