ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Not only clinical factors, including the CHADS2 score, but also echocardiographic findings have been reported to be useful for predicting the risk of ischemic stroke in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). However, it remains to be determined which of these factors might be more relevant for evaluation of the risk of stroke in each patient. METHODS: In 490 patients with NVAF who underwent transesophageal echocardiography (TEE), we examined the long-term incidence of ischemic stroke events (mean follow-up time, 5.7+/-3.3 years). For each patient, the predictive values of gender, the CHADS2 risk factors (congestive heart failure, hypertension, age > or =75 years, diabetes mellitus, history of cerebral ischemia), the CHADS2 score, and the findings on echocardiography, including TEE risk markers, were assessed. RESULTS: The ischemic stroke rate was significantly correlated with the CHADS2 score (p or =75 years, history of cerebral ischemia, CHADS2 score > or =2, and presence of TEE risk were significantly correlated with the incidence of ischemic stroke. Cox proportional hazards regression analyses identified age > or =75 years and presence of TEE risk as significant predictors of subsequent ischemic stroke events in patients with NVAF. As compared with that in persons below 75 years of age without TEE risk, the ischemic stroke rate was significantly higher in persons who were > or =75 years of age with TEE risk (4.3 vs. 0.56%/year, adjusted hazard ratio=8.94, p or =75 years with TEE risk.