ABSTRACT
ObjectiveTo investigate the risk factors and construct a predictive model for severe myelosuppression due to chemotherapy in triple negative breast cancer （TNBC）. MethodsPatients with TNBC who received anthracycline combined with cyclophosphamide sequential paclitaxel chemotherapy regimen at the Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University from September 2， 2016 to September 2， 2021 were selected and assigned to severe myelosuppression group and no/mild myelosuppression group. The χ2 test and binary logistic regression were used to analyze the risk factors for severe myelosuppression due to chemotherapy and to develop a prediction model. Hosmer-Lemeshow test and receiver operating characteristic （ROC） curve were used to evaluate the predictive efficiency of the regression model. Kappa consistency test was used to verify the regression model externally. ResultsA total of 207 patients who met the inclusion were enrolled and 106 patients （51%） had severe myelosuppression. Binary logistic regression multivariate analysis showed that age 40 to 60 years （OR = 3.463， 95% CI： 1.144 to 10.486， P = 0.028）， age >60 years （OR = 3.474， 95% CI： 1.004 to 12.020， P = 0.049）， body mass index （BMI） 18.5 to 24.0 （OR = 1.445， 95% CI： 0.686 to 3.087， P = 0.328）， BMI <18.5 （OR = 3.582， 95% CI： 1.260 to 10.182， P = 0.017）， tumor TNM stage Ⅱ （OR = 1.698， 95% CI： 0.831 to 3.468， P = 0.146）， tumor TNM stage Ⅲ （OR = 2.943， 95% CI： 1.199 to 7.227， P = 0.019）， previous diabetes （OR = 2.441， 95% CI： 1.076 to 5.539， P = 0.033）， low pre-treatment albumin level （OR = 2.759， 95% CI： 1.141 to 6.669， P = 0.024） and low pre-treatment lymphocytes （OR = 3.428， 95% CI： 1.689 to 6.958， P = 0.001） were independent risk factors for severe myelosuppression due to chemotherapy. The χ2 value for the logistic regression model Hosmer-Lemeshow test was 11.507， P= 0.175， the area under the ROC curve was 0.763， standard error 0.033， 95% CI： 0.698-0.828， P=0.000. External validation showed that the prediction model had a specificity of 88% and a sensitivity of 80%； the kappa value was 0.679， standard error 0.081， P=0.000. conclusionThis logistic regression model had high predictive efficacy and is useful for clinicians to predict whether patients with TNBC develop severe myelosuppression.