Cumulative risk and trends in prostate cancer incidence in Mumbai, India.

BACKGROUND: Information relating to cancer incidence trends in a community forms the scientific basis for the planning and organization of prevention, diagnosis and treatment of cancer. We here estimated the cumulative risk and trends in incidence of prostate cancer in Mumbai, India, using data collected by the Bombay Population-based Cancer Registry from the year 1986 to 2000. METHODS: During the 15 year period, a total of 2864 prostate cancer cases (4.7% of all male cancers and 2.4% of all cancers) were registered by the Bombay Population-based Cancer Registry. For evaluation of the trend, we applied a linear regression model based on the logarithm of the observed incidence rates. The annual percentage changes were also computed for the evaluation. Cumulative incidence rates percentages were calculated by adding up the age specific incidence rates at single ages and then expressed as a percentage. RESULTS: Analysis of the trends in age-adjusted incidence rates of prostate cancer during the period 1986 to 2000 showed no statistically significant increase or decrease and the rates proved stable across the various age groups (00-49, 50-69 and 70+) also. The probability estimates indicated that one out of every 59 men will contract a prostate cancer at some time in his whole life and 99% of the chance is after he reaches the age of 50. CONCLUSION: The stability in age adjusted-incidence rates indicates that there are no changes in the etiological factors for prostate cancer in Mumbai, India. These findings may be of general interest because changes in diagnostic practices are confounded in the time trends of prostate cancer change in many western countries preventing inferences on the changes in risk.

An epidemiological assessment of increasing incidence and trends in breast cancer in Mumbai and other sites in India, during the last two decades.

A great deal is known on the epidemiology of breast cancer. In this paper an attempt has been made to discuss the epidemiology and trends in incidence of breast cancer in various populations of India with special reference to the data available at Mumbai Cancer Registry. For discussing descriptive epidemiology of breast cancer the data collected for most recent year, 1999, by Mumbai Cancer Registry has been utilized. For studying time trends in breast cancer the data collected for the Mumbai Cancer Registry for the years 1982-99 and for Bangalore and Chennai 1982-96 and for Barshi, Bhopal and Delhi for the years 1988-96 has been employed. A linear regression model based on the logarithms of the various incidence rates, a method frequently used for studying time trends, was applied to the entire dataset. Age specific incidence rates for breast cancer for most of the urban population in India were found to show steep increase till menopause years, after which the curves plateau. Most of the registries data indicate that Christians in India have the greatest risk of breast risk and Muslims have the lowest rate. In all the populations breast cancer was found to be less prevalent at the lower education level and the incidence increased with the education level. The trends for increase in breast cancer incidence over time for most of the populations in India were found to be statistically significant.