A statistical method for forecasting demographic time series counts, with application to HIV/AIDS and other infectious disease mortality in southern Thailand.

This study investigated regional and temporal patterns of death reported from infectious diseases (including HIV/AIDS) in 14 provinces of southern Thailand over the period 1999-2004, using data obtained from the Thailand Bureau of Policy and Strategy, Ministry of Public Health. Causes of deaths were identified using the International Classification of Diseases 10th revision (ICD-10), and mortality incidence rates were then calculated using populations obtained from the 2000 population census. Poisson and negative binomial lagged observation-driven regression models for mortality incidence were fitted to the data separately for HIV/ AIDS and other infectious diseases. Overall, the hospital mortality rates started to increase sharply in 2003 - 2004. The in-hospital mortality for HIV/AIDS showed peaks in urban districts and decreased from north to south with mortality for males approximately double that of females. For other infectious diseases, an upward trend in hospital mortality age 40 and over started in 2003-2004, particularly among persons reported as dying from septicemia, while showing a slightly increasing trend for other infectious diseases. Identifying the real cause of hospital deaths recorded as septicemia would substantially improve hospital mortality data quality.

Long stick exercise to improve muscular strength and flexibility in sedentary individuals.

The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of long stick exercise training on the strength and flexibility of sedentary individuals. An observational prospective study was conducted at the Prince of Songkla University. Eighty-five subjects who did not engage in any regular physical activity for at least three months before the study. A long stick exercise program was taught by a master for 45 minutes, at least three times weekly, for three months. Handgrip strength, back-leg strength, and flexibility were measured at the beginning of the program as a baseline, and at one, two, and three months of training. The subjects had increased back-leg strength and flexibility. Median back-leg strength increased from the baseline by 0.07 kg/weight, 0.19 kg/weight, and 0.21 kg/weight, at one, two, and three months, respectively (p< 0.05). Median flexibility (sit-and-reach test) improved from the baseline by 4.34 cm, 4.71 cm, and 5.56 cm, at one, two, and three months, respectively (p = 0.001). There were no statistically significant changes in handgrip strength.

Socio-demographic and environmental factors associated with Aedes breeding places in Phuket, Thailand.

This study aimed to determine the socio-demographic and environmental factors influencing potential breeding sites of the dengue vector in Phuket Province. Three hundred houses were recruited by cluster random sampling for larval inspection. Of all the types of water containers, a high proportion of tires and discarded items were infested by Aedes larva (42% and 32%, respectively). Due to the abundance of water tanks, jars for using water and discarded containers (1.7, 2.1, 0.8 per house), these were the main breeding sites (0.29, 0.35, and 0.28 infested containers per house, respectively). Buddhists' houses were significantly more likely to have a larvae-infested flower vase than Muslims' houses. Townhouses had relatively few infested containers, while those on rubber plantations had 18.3 times higher odds of having at least one container with larva. No window screens increased the odds of larva infestation in the discarded containers by 4.2 times. With this information and given a reliable piped water supply, the number of water containers can be reduced to minimize the breeding places. Garbage should be properly disposed of. Screens should be installed, if possible. Buddhists should be advised on the proper protection of flower vases.

Prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors in a rural area in Southern Thailand: potential ethnic differences.

In Thepa district, Songkhla province, Southern Thailand, parents of children being followed long term from conception for their development (N 1325), as well as health workers of the same district (N 150) were surveyed with regards to anthropometry, occupation, family size, food and leisure habits, and blood levels of lipids, sugar, creatinine and hematocrit. Differences among those of Thai or Chinese extracts (Thai-Buddhists) and those of Malay extracts (Thai-Muslims) were separately evaluated for males and females. The mean age for the group (N 1475, including 636 couples) was 31.5 +/- 7.3 (SD) and ranged from 15-66 years. There were 794 females (485 Muslims) ages 29.6 +/- 6.6 (SD). The Muslim families were larger in size averaging 2.8 +/- 1.6 children while the Buddhist's averaged 1.9 +/- 0.9. Fifty four percent of the group were engaged in rubber tapping and this often included both members of the family. Sixty eight percent of the males currently smoked Differences in measured variables between Muslims and Buddhists were minimal. The most striking however was the high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) among the males where the age-adjusted average was 51.3 +/- 0.72 (SE) among the Buddhists and 42.2 +/- 0.59 (SE) in the Muslims. This difference was significant even when adjusted for other related variables. Differences in the ethnic groups were also examined in terms of prevalence of risks (hypertension, BMI > or = 25%, waist-hip-ratio, fasting plasma glucose > or = 110 mg%, total cholesterol > or = 200 mg%, triglyceride > or = 150 mg% and low HDL-C). For hypertension (systolic > or = 140 or diastolic > or = 90 mmHg), female Muslims showed higher prevalence (4.5% vs 1.6%; OR 2.82 CI 1.04-7.64). For low HDL-C, male Muslim showed higher prevalence 23.6 vs 8.8%, OR 2.31 CI 1.27-4.22). Other risks showed no differences among the ethnic groups. The differences in parameters or in prevalence of risk between these two ethnic groups (minimal intermarriage) are distinct from differences among Malays and Chinese in Singapore where such differences were subsequently reflected in the differences in incidence and out-come of ischemic heart diseases.