ABSTRACT
Objetivo: Avaliar a discriminação e a calibração do Pediatric Index of Mortality 2 em pacientes de uma unidade de cuidados intensivos pediátrica. Métodos: Estudo de coorte contemporânea realizado no período de novembro de 2005 a novembro de 2006. Os limites de idade foram 29 dias de vida e 18 anos. Excluídos aqueles com óbito em menos de 12 horas após admissão e readmissões. Para o desempenho do Pediatric Index of Mortality 2, foram aplicados o teste de Hosmer-Lemeshow, o índice padronizado de mortalidade standardized mortality ratio e área sob a curva ROC, intervalo de confiança de 95%. O nível de significância foi de 5%. Resultados: Foram estudadas 276 admissões de pacientes. A taxa de mortalidade foi de 14,13%, com eficiência de admissão de 0,88%. A mediana de idade foi de 42,22 meses, havendo predomínio do gênero masculino com 60,1%. O setor de emergência foi responsável por 48,91% das admissões. Tempo de permanência foi de 6,43±5,23 dias (média). As admissões clínicas corresponderam a 72,46% e associaram-se ao óbito (odds ratio: 2,9; intervalo de confiança de 95%: 1,09-7,74; p=0,017). O Pediatric Index of Mortality 2 apresentou calibração com qui-quadrado de 12,2686 (p=0,1396) no teste de Hosmer-Lemeshow, e índice padronizado de morte de 1,0. A discriminação relacionada à área abaixo da curva ROC foi de 0,778. Conclusão: O escore Pediatric Index of Mortality 2 apresentou desempenho satisfatório. .
Objective: To assess the discrimination and calibration of the Pediatric Index of Mortality 2 in patients admitted to a pediatric intensive care unit. Methods: The study was conducted with a contemporary cohort from November 2005 to November 2006. Patients aged 29 days to 18 years were included in the study. Patients who died within 12 hours of admission and cases of readmission were excluded from the study. The performance of the Pediatric Index of Mortality 2 was assessed by means of the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, the standardized mortality ratio and the area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve with 95% confidence interval. The significance level was established as 5%. Results: A total of 276 admissions to the pediatric intensive care unit were included in the analysis. The mortality rate was 14.13%, and the efficiency of admission 0.88%. The median age of the sample was 42.22 months, and most participants were male (60.1%). Most admissions were referrals from the emergency department. The mean duration of stay in pediatric intensive care unit was 6.43±5.23 days. Approximately 72.46% of admissions were for clinical reasons and exhibited an association with the outcome death (odds ratio: 2.9; 95%CI: 1.09-7.74; p=0.017). Calibration of the Pediatric Index of Mortality 2 with the chi-square statistic was 12.2686 (p=0.1396) in the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, and the standardized mortality ratio was 1.0. The area under the ROC curve assessing model discrimination was 0.778. Conclusion: Pediatric Index of Mortality 2 exhibited satisfactory performance. .