Utilidad del modelo 5MPB-Toledo para predecir bacteriemia en el paciente anciano / Usefulness of the 5MPB-Toledo model to predict bacteremia in the elderly patient

Resumen Objetivo: Analizar la utilidad del modelo predictivo de bacteriemia (5MPB-Toledo) en los mayores de 65 años atendidos por infección en el servicio de urgencias (SU). Material y Método: Estudio observacional prospectivo y multicéntrico de los hemocultivos (HC) obtenidos en pacientes mayores de 65 años atendidos por infección en 66 SU españoles desde el 1 de diciembre de 2019 hasta el 30 de abril de 2020. Se analizó la capacidad predictiva del modelo con el área bajo la curva (ABC) de la característica operativa del receptor (COR) y se calculó el rendimiento diagnóstico de los puntos de corte (PC) del modelo elegido con los cálculos de la sensibilidad, la especificidad, el valor predictivo positivo y el valor predictivo negativo. Resultados: Se incluyeron 2.401 episodios de HC extraídos. De ellos, se consideró como bacteriemia verdadera a 579 (24,11%) y como HC negativo a 1.822 (75,89%). Entre los negativos, 138 (5,74%) se consideraron contaminados. Se categorizó a los pacientes en bajo (0-2 puntos), moderado (3-5 puntos) y alto (6-8 puntos) riesgo, con una probabilidad de bacteriemia de 1,2%, 18,1% y 80,7%, respectivamente. El ABC-COR del modelo tras remuestreo fue de 0,908 (IC 95%: 0,897-0,924). El rendimiento diagnóstico del modelo, considerando un PC ≥ 5 puntos, obtiene una sensibilidad de 94% (IC 95%:92-96), especificidad de 77% (IC 95%:76-79) y un valor predictivo negativo de 97% (IC 95%:96-98). Conclusión: El modelo 5MPB-Toledo es de utilidad para predecir bacteriemia en los mayores de 65 años atendidos en el SU por un episodio de infección.

Abstract Objective: To analyse a risk score to predict bacteremia (MPB5-Toledo) in the patients aged older 65 years seen in the emergency departments (ED) due to infections. Patients and Methods: Prospective and multicenter observational cohort study of the blood cultures (BC) ordered in 66 Spanish ED for patients aged older 65 years seen from December 1, 2019, to April 30, 2020. The predictive ability of the model was analyzed with the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). The prognostic performance for true bacteremia was calculated with the cut-off values chosen for getting the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value. Results: A total of 2.401 blood samples wered cultured. True cases of bacteremia were confirmed in 579 (24.11%). The remaining 1.822 cultures (75.89%) wered negative. And, 138 (5.74%) were judged to be contaminated. Low risk for bacteremia was indicated by a score of 0 to 2 points, intermediate risk by 3 to 5 points, and high risk by 6 to 8 points. Bacteremia in these 3 risk groups was predicted for 1.2%, 18.1%, and 80.7%, respectively. The model´s area under the receiver ope rating characteristic curve was 0.908 (95% CI, 0.897-0.924). The prognostic performance with a model´s cut-off value of ≥ 5 points achieved 94% (95% CI: 92-96) sensitivity, 77% (95% CI: 76-79) specificity, and negative predictive value of 97% (95% CI: 96-98). Conclusion: The 5MPB-Toledo score is useful for predicting bacteremia in the patients aged older 65 years seen in the emergency departments due to infections.

Safety and Revisit Related to Discharge the Sixty-one Spanish Emergency Department Medical Centers Without Hospitalization in Patients with COVID-19 Pneumonia. A Prospective Cohort Study UMC-Pneumonia COVID-19

ABSTRACT Background: Information is needed on the safety and efficacy of direct discharge from the emergency department (ED) of patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. Objectives: The objectives of the study were to study the variables associated with discharge from the ED in patients presenting with COVID-19 pneumonia, and study ED revisits related to COVID-19 at 30 days (EDR30d). Methods: Multicenter study of the SIESTA cohort including 1198 randomly selected COVID patients in 61 EDs of Spanish medical centers from March 1, 2020, to April 30, 2020. We collected baseline and related characteristics of the acute episode and calculated the adjusted odds ratios (aOR) for ED discharge. In addition, we analyzed the variables related to EDR30d in discharged patients. Results: We analyzed 859 patients presenting with COVID-19 pneumonia, 84 (9.8%) of whom were discharged from the ED. The variables independently associated with discharge were being a woman (aOR 1.890; 95%CI 1.176-3.037), age < 60 years (aOR 2.324; 95%CI 1.353-3.990), and lymphocyte count > 1200/mm3 (aOR 4.667; 95%CI 1.045-20.839). The EDR30d of the ED discharged group was 40.0%, being lower in women (aOR 0.368; 95%CI 0.142-0.953). A total of 130 hospitalized patients died (16.8%) as did two in the group discharged from the ED (2.4%) (OR 0.121; 95%CI 0.029-0.498). Conclusion: Discharge from the ED in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia was infrequent and was associated with few variables of the episode. The EDR30d was high, albeit with a low mortality.