Advance on theoretical epidemiology models research of prevention and control of COVID-19 / 中华预防医学杂志

COVID-19 has brought a significant impact to the global health system, and also opportunities and challenges to epidemiological researches. Theoretical epidemiological models can simulate the process of epidemic in scenarios under different conditions. Therefore, modeling researches can analyze the epidemical trend of COVID-19, predict epidemical risks, and evaluate effects of different control measures and vaccine policies. Theoretical epidemiological modeling researches provide scientific advice for the prevention and control of infectious diseases, and play a crucial role in containing COVID-19 over the past year. In this study, we review the theoretical epidemiological modeling researches on COVID-19 and summarize the role of theoretical epidemiological models in the prevention and control of COVID-19, in order to provide reference for the combination of mathematical modeling and epidemic control.

Potential false-positive rate among the 'asymptomatic infected individuals’ in close contacts of COVID-19 patients / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective@#As the prevention and control of COVID-19continues to advance, the active nucleic acid test screening in the close contacts of the patients has been carrying out in many parts of China. However, the false-positive rate of positive results in the screening has not been reported up to now. But to clearify the false-positive rate during screening is important in COVID-19 control and prevention.@*Methods@#Point values and reasonable ranges of the indicators which impact the false-positive rate of positive results were estimated based on the information available to us at present. The false-positive rate of positive results in the active screening was deduced, and univariate and multivariate-probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to understand the robustness of the findings.@*Results@#When the infection rate of the close contacts and the sensitivity and specificity of reported results were taken as the point estimates, the positive predictive value of the active screening was only 19.67%, in contrast, the false-positive rate of positive results was 80.33%. The multivariate-probabilistic sensitivity analysis results supported the base-case findings, with a 75% probability for the false-positive rate of positive results over 47%.@*Conclusions@#In the close contacts of COVID-19 patients, nearly half or even more of the 'asymptomatic infected individuals’ reported in the active nucleic acid test screening might be false positives.