ABSTRACT
Objective:To develop and verify machine learning(ML)models for the early warning of ventilator-associated pneumonia(VAP)within 24 hours after invasive mechanical ventilation, so as to provide more evidence and ideas for the clinical management of VAP in elderly patients.Methods:In this study, clinical data of elderly patients with acute respiratory failure and invasive mechanical ventilation in intensive care unit were extracted from MIMIC Ⅳ 2.2 database.Using VAP as the outcome index, patients were divided into training set and testing set in a ratio of 7∶3.Four ML algorithms were used to build a model in the training set, and the performance of the model was verified by the test set.The model was compared with SOFA, systemic inflammatory response syndrome(SIRS) and acute physiology score(APS)Ⅲ scores in the same dataset.Results:A total of 1 859 elderly patients were included, 336 of whom were diagnosed with VAP.The area under the curve(AUC)of the receiver operator characteristic curve of ML models were higher than the clinical risk scores(SOFA score: 0.44, SIRS score: 0.49, APS Ⅲ score: 0.46), and the LightGBM model and XGBoost model had better predictive performance, with AUC of 0.85(95% CI: 0.82, 0.88)and 0.84(95% CI: 0.81, 0.87). SHAP was used to further explain the model.The results showed that SOFA neurological score, maximum white blood cell count, maximum respiratory rate, maximum alkali residual and age were important factors for early prediction of elderly VAP. Conclusions:In this study, ML algorithms were used to build an early warning model of VAP in elderly patients, which has important guiding significance for clinical timely initiation and adjustment of treatment plan.In the future, external verification of the model should be further carried out.
ABSTRACT
Aspiration is the entry of oropharyngeal or gastric contents into the lower respiratory tract through the glottis, a common and important cause of death in elderly patients due to lung infections.However, a lack of accurate and rapid clinical methods for the diagnosis of aspiration leads to misdiagnosis, missed diagnosis or delayed diagnosis of aspiration, especially aspiration pneumonia.In recent years, with further research into the mechanisms of aspiration syndromes, multiple aspiration biomarkers with potential and clinical translational value have been found, and may help early detection of aspiration and have important and practical significance for elderly health.Therefore, this article reviews aspiration biomarkers such as pepsin, α-amylase, bile acid and other potential biomarkers as well as current relevant research, detection methods, their clinical value and prospects concerning challenges and directions of innovation in future research.
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Objective To evaluate the clinical efficacy and safety of apatinib combined with radiotherapy in patients with bone metastasis.Methods Thirty-one patients admitted to Radiation Oncology of the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University with bone metastasis were recruited from April 2016 to February 2017.All patients were received apatinib 500 mg/d orally combined with radiotherapy (30 ～40 Gy/10 ～20 F).until disease progression or intolerable toxicity occurred.Clinical efficacy and safety were observed.Results The total response rate was 93.55％ (29/31),25.81％ (8/31) had complete response,58.06％ (18/31) had moderate response,9.68％ (3/31) had mild response,and 6.45％ (2/31) had no response;The time to exert its effect after the treatment was 6 days,and its median maintenance time was 7 months.The lesions complete response was 3.23％ (1/31),partial response was 51.61％ (16/31),became stable in 13 patients (41.94％),and deteriorated in 1 patient (3.23％),and the total control rate was 96.78％.The patients Karnofsky score increased obviously after the treatment (83.71 ± 5.77 vs.78.87 ± 7.49),and the difference was statistically significant (t =4.23,P =0.006).The median local progression-free survival and median overall survival were 6 months and 7 months,respectively.The main adverse reactions were hypertension,hand-foot syndrome,proteinuria and bone marrow depression.The rates of hypertension,hand-foot syndrome,proteinttria and bone marrow depression were 35.48％ (11/31),25.81％ (8/31),16.13％ (5/31),and 16.13％ (5/31),respectively.Conclusion Radiotherapy combined with apatinib is effective and tolerable for bone metastasis patients.