ABSTRACT
Objetivo: analisar a tendência temporal dos coeficientes de incidência, detecção e mortalidade pelo vírus da imunodeficiência humana (HIV) e síndrome da imunodeficiência adquirida (aids) no estado de Minas Gerais, de 2007 a 2016. Métodos: estudo de séries temporais, com dados do Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (Sinan), por regressão de Prais-Winsten. Resultados: no período estudado, foram notificados 35.349 casos,entre os quais predominou a transmissão por via sexual (81,7%); destes, 50,3% foram entre heterossexuais e 22,8% entre homossexuais. Houve aumento da taxa de incidência de aids (variação anual 1,6%; IC95%0,0;3,3) e de detecção de HIV+ (variação anual 60,3%; IC95%22,9;109,0). A taxa de mortalidade foi estacionária. O percentual de notificações pelo critério HIV+ aumentou de 3,8% em 2007 para 65,1% em 2016. Conclusão: a tendência de crescimento da detecção de HIV coincide com a estratégia para identificação dos casos; a incidência de aids foi crescente.
Objetivo: analizar la tendencia temporal de los coeficientes de incidencia, detección y mortalidad por el Virus de la Inmunodeficiencia Humana (VIH) y Síndrome de Inmunodeficiencia Adquirida (Sida) en el estado de Minas Gerais, entre 2007-2016. Métodos: estudio de las series temporales de casos notificados del Sistema de Información de Agravamientos de Notificación (Sinan) por la regresión de Prais-Winsten. Se utilizó estadística descriptiva y análisis de series temporales. Resultados: había 35.349 casos y predominio de contaminación por vía sexual (81,7%), en heterosexuales (50,3%) y homosexuales (22,8%). Aumentó la tendencia de la incidencia de sida y detección de VIH +, con variación anual del 1,6% y del 60,3% (p <0,05), respectivamente. La mortalidad fue estacionaria. Aumentaron las notificaciones por el criterio de VIH +. Conclusión: el aumento de la tendencia de detección de VIH +, indica que la estrategia para identificación de portadores se ha mostrado apropiada, pero la incidencia de sida continua creciente.
Objective: to analyze the temporal trend of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) and Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) incidence, detection and mortality coefficients in the state of Minas Gerais between 2007 and 2016. Methods: this was a time series study of data held on the Notifiable Health Conditions Information System (Sinan) using Prais-Winsten regression. Results: in the period studied, 35,349 cases were notified, with predominance of sexually transmitted cases (81.7%), 50.3% of which were heterosexual cases and 22.8% were homosexual cases. AIDS incidence increased (annual change 1.6%; 95%CI 0.0;3.3) as did HIV detection (annual change 60.3%; 95%CI 22.9;109.0). The mortality rate was stationary; HIV+ notifications increased from 3.8% in 2007 to 65.1% in 2016. Conclusion: the growing trend of HIV+ detection coincided with the government strategy to identify cases. AIDS incidence increased.
Subject(s)
Humans , Male , Female , Adolescent , Adult , Middle Aged , Aged , Young Adult , HIV Infections/mortality , HIV Infections/epidemiology , HIV Seroprevalence/trends , Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/mortality , Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/epidemiology , Brazil/epidemiology , AIDS Serodiagnosis/trends , Time Series Studies , Incidence , Disease Notification/statistics & numerical dataABSTRACT
Abstract INTRODUCTION: Over 30 years after the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome epidemic, several strategies have been implemented to verify the trend of the infection, the profile of the affected individuals, and the impact of prevention and control measures, with notification of asymptomatic carriers being the most recent measure. This study aimed to verify the geographic distribution of human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome and analyze the association between case definition criteria, sociodemographic data, and clinical aspects of the disease in the State of Minas Gerais between 2007 and 2016. METHODS: In this ecological and analytical study, 35,349 cases of human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome reported in the State of Minas Gerais between 2007 and 2016 were analyzed. The data were analyzed using multiple correspondence factor analysis, time series analysis, descriptive statistics, and spatial distribution of the cases by macro-region. RESULTS: The majority of the patients were brown-skinned individuals, alive, diagnosed with human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome on the basis of the criteria adapted from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and living in municipalities with more than 50,000 (80.5%) inhabitants. Between 2007 and 2016, there was an increase in the number of criteria used for diagnosing human immunodeficiency virus. By contrast, a consequent decrease was observed in the number of criteria used for defining cases, which were adapted from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Rio de Janeiro/Caracas, and for identifying AIDS-related deaths. Young people aged between 13 and 29 years, individuals whose education level is compatible with the observed age, and homosexual men were associated with the HIV+ criterion. CONCLUSIONS: Out study showed that after the mandatory notification of human immunodeficiency virus-positive cases in 2014, there was a decrease in other criteria for defining human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome cases and changes in the profile of people living with human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome.