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ObjectiveTo elucidate the principles and methods of the Bayesian probabilistic linkage model， and to demonstrate the effect of applying the model in linking birth and death data. MethodsThrough the Shanghai birth and death registration system， data of 199 025 infants born in 2017 and 1 512 infants who died in 2017 and 2018 were collected. After cleaning the data， the data were divided into monthly blocks and fully linked. The Jaro-Winkler algorithm and Euclidean distance were employed to measure the similarity of fields for matching. A Bayesian probabilistic linkage model was constructed and the linking effect was evaluated using a confusion matrix. ResultsUsing the Bayesian probabilistic linkage model， the birth and death data of infants were effectively linked， revealing that 36.71% of infants who died in Shanghai were born outside the city， and the probability of infant death was 2.6‰. The confusion matrix of the test set showed a recall rate of 0.86， precision of 0.76， and an F-score of 0.81. ConclusionThe practical application of Bayesian probabilistic linkage demonstrates a good model performance， enabling the establishment of birth-death cohorts that more accurately reflect the true levels of infant mortality. Utilizing this technique to integrate data from different departments can effectively improve research efficiency in the field of public health.
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ObjectiveTo establish the Shanghai twin birth cohort （STBC） and analyze the effects of genetic factors， shared environment， and non-shared environment interactions on birth health and growth and development of newborns. MethodsBased on the population-wide birth cohort in Shanghai， a comprehensive survey was conducted on the families with double and multiple babies born after January 1， 2015 to collect information on birth health， growth and development， and the family environment of the babies. ResultsBy December 31， 2021， a total of 7 195 pairs （14 405 cases） of twins were successfully included in the STBC survey. The average birth length of twins was 47.2 cm and average birth weight was 2 465.3 g. Heterozygous twins accounted for 69.05% and preterm babies accounted for 57.07%. The average age of the mothers of twins was 31.82 years， and the average age of the fathers was 33.87 years， with more than 80% of the parents having a college degree or above. 44.50% of the mothers used assisted reproductive technologies， 7.40% had illnesses during pregnancy， and 15.90% were exposed to passive smoking during pregnancy. During the survey period， the average monthly increase in the length of the twin infants was 2.09 cm， and the average monthly weight gain was 0.53 kg. ConclusionThe incidence of adverse outcomes such as maternal cesarean section rate， preterm birth， and low birth weight is higher in the twin birth population. Information on birth health as well as growth and development in childhood and adolescence in the twin birth population is collected based on STBC， which can provide a solid data foundation for studying children’s chronic non-communicable diseases， psychological and behavioral disorders and other complex health problems caused by the combined effects of genetics and the environment.
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ObjectiveTo introduce the basic design， development plan and objectives of a population-based birth cohort in Shanghai， and further present the main data and baseline characteristics of enrolled participants in the cohort， and to provide key information for reproductive health-related studies. MethodsThe Shanghai population-based birth cohort initiated on January 1， 2005， included newborns born in Shanghai every year and their parents， and collected information on reproductive health， reproductive treatment， birth characteristics， growth and development status， as well as the incidence， treatment and death of diseases by employing data linkage technology and investigations. This formed a birth cohort spanning the entire life cycle. ResultsAs of October 2022， a total of 2 978 538 newborns and their parents were included in the cohort. Among them， 2 905 135 （97.54%） were naturally conceived （NC）， and 73 403 （2.46%） were born through assisted reproductive technologies （ART）. The average age of parents was （32.56±4.12） years old for females and （34.62±5.34） years old for males in the ART group， which was higher than （28.02±4.71） years and （30.07±5.54） years for parents in the NC group. Among parents， females and males aged 30 and above accounted for 77.12% and 85.08%， respectively， which were higher than that of parents （35.28% for females and 49.66% for males） in the NC group. Furthermore， the percentage of parents with a college degree or above in the ART group was 73.23% for females and 73.66% for males， which were higher than those in the NC group （49.98% and 50.91%， respectively）. The multiple births rate in the ART group was 33.81%， which was higher than that in the NC group （1.88%）. The incidence of premature birth and low birth weight in the ART group were 24.47% and 19.08%， respectively， which was higher than that in the NC group （5.47% and 3.73%）. ConclusionThe comprehensive collection of reproductive health-related information in the birth cohort in Shanghai can provide essential resources to determine the influence of genetics， environment， reproductive treatment and other related factors on the health of offspring after birth.
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ObjectiveTo analyze the dynamic response relationship between urban development and mortality rate in Shanghai， and to predict the trend of mortality rate changes. MethodsBy analyzing the total mortality rate （TMR）， gross domestic product （GDP） and socio-demographic index （SDI） in Shanghai from 1978 to 2017， a vector autoregressive （VAR） model was constructed to evaluate the impact of urban development on the mortality rate. ResultsThe fitted R2 of the VAR model was 0.92. The short-term effect of GDP on the improvement of death level was negative， while the long-term effect was positive， and the SDI was negative regardless of the short-term and long-term effects. By the tenth year， GDP and SDI contributed 10.61% and 27.25% to TMR changes， respectively. The model predicted that the mortality rate in Shanghai would be 9.17 per thousand by 2030. ConclusionLong-term economic growth can effectively promote a decline in population mortality. However， as the economy develops vigorously， the adverse effects of declining birth rates and population aging on population health during the era of high-level population development should not be ignored.
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ObjectiveTo investigate the characteristics of gender difference and the trend of the mortality rate of senile dementia in registered population in Shanghai from year 2002 to 2018， and to provide the basis for formulating relative intervention measures before and after senile dementia from an public-health view. MethodsBased on the collected data of death registration， focused on the senile dementia disease codes F03，G30.0，G30.1，G30.8，G30.9 according to The International Classification of Diseases 10th revision （ICD-10）. We analyzed the characteristics of gender difference in the mortality rate of senile dementia in registered population in Shanghai from year 2002 to 2018. According to ASR， we calculated the standardized mortality rate of senile dementia， and used the chi-square test to compare the difference between the gender mortality rates. The trend and the turning point of the mortality rate of senile dementia were determined by linear regression analysis by Join-point. ResultsThe crude mortality rate of senile dementia in the registered population in Shanghai from year 2002 to 2018 was 5.46/105， 3.50/105 in males and 7.43/105 in females. The standardized mortality rate of senile dementia was 2.61/105， 1.67/105 in males and 3.56/105 in females. The trend of the standardized mortality rate of senile dementia in 17 years decreased ［APC=-5.5（-6.5，-4.5）%，P<0.01］. The trend of the standardized mortality rate of senile dementia decreased in both males ［APC=-4.9（-6.2，-3.6）%，P<0.01］ and females ［APC=-5.9（-6.9，-4.9）%，P<0.01］. The trend of the gender difference decreased ［APC=-6.8（-8.2，-5.3）%，P<0.01］. The mortality rate of senile dementia was higher in females than in males ［（χ2=33.63，P<0.01）］. ConclusionThe mortality rate of senile dementia in females is higher than in males in Shanghai， though the trend of the gender difference decreased. This gender difference is worth of attention.
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@#Objective To understand the status of special rehabilitation service demands of people with disability at Zhabei District in Shanghai and to provide the basis for the policy development.Methods Screen rate (SR) was used to indicate the level of demand of rehabilitation service, the data were analyzed with SPSS 13.0 statistical software.Results There were 4 349 persons with disability who demanded the special rehabilitation service; the SR of “on-site rehabilitation service” demands was the highest among the whole persons with disability; the SR of “personalized allotment of supplies and appliances” demands of the intellectual disability and mental disability was lower than the other types; the SR of special rehabilitation service demands of the female, the elderly, the low cultural level, the unemployed and the people with severe disability were relatively higher.Conclusion The form of “on-site rehabilitation services” needs to improve based on the demand of the disabilities; “personalized supplies and appliances” for the intellectual disability and mental disability needs to further develop; the rehabilitation services targeted to the female, the elderly, the low cultural level, the unemployed and the people with severe disability need to improve.
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@#Objective To investigate the factors influencing basic rehabilitation service needs of people with disability at Zhabei District in Shanghai .Methods Primary rehabilitation demands and services of 10 311 disabled persons in Zhabei District were surveyed.Results The screening rate of persons with disability having primary rehabilitation demands was 83.5%. And the gender, age, type of disability, disability level, education, employment might be the factors affecting the primary rehabilitation demands of people with disability.Conclusion The primary rehabilitation service demands vary in deferent types of people with disability. The various services based on the extensive rehabilitation services should be provided to deferent categories of people with disability.