ABSTRACT
This study investigated and analyzed the determinants of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emission in Nigeria. The study relied on secondary data from World Bank and Central Bank of Nigeria covering 40 years (1970-2009). The data were analyzed using Zellner’s Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SURE) model. The results of the analysis show that fossil energy demand or consumption, rents from forestry trade, agricultural land area expansion and farm technology were significant determinants of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission in the study area. On the other hand, the second equation indicated that fossil fuel energy demand was exogenously determined by economic growth rate (proxied by GDP growth rate) and farm technology applied in the country. It was recommended that Nigeria should put in place policies that will tax companies or firms emitting GHGs and utilize such tax proceeds for research and building the capacities of farmers to adapt to deleterious effect of climate change in the country and continent. The development of existing and new technologies for adapting to climate change and variability, building of environmental consciousness of Nigerians through curriculum restructuring and provision of weather information services by the Nigerian governments and their agencies to enable farmers plan against weather uncertainty and risks were also recommended.
ABSTRACT
Aims: This study ascertained the joint influences of climate factors, poverty and macroeconomic environment on agricultural export performance in Nigeria. Study Design: The study is a survey based on time series data. Place and Duration of Study: Secondary data covering 32 years (1978-2009) obtained from Central Bank of Nigeria’s Annual Report and Statistical Bulletin and National Bureau of Statistics were used for the survey. Methodology: The sample size was 32 (years) based on data availability. Data analysis was conducted using bound testing approach of co-integration advanced by Pesaran et al. [25] otherwise known as Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL).model. Test for unit roots in the series were done at their levels and first differences using Augmented Dickey Fuller and Philips Perron tests before applying the ARDL model. Results: Preliminary results from the ARDL model indicated that climate variability (variations in mean annual rainfall), gross fixed capital formation (proxy for wealth accumulated in the economy) and macroeconomic variables including interest rate and volume of domestic credit advanced to the private sector significantly influenced the performance level of agricultural export. However, on the long-run, macroeconomic factors (interest rate and credit to the private sector) and gross fixed capital of the economy (with p values of 0.01, 0.07 and 0.03 respectively were the most significant determinants of agricultural export trade performance in the country within the review period. On the short run, it was confirmed that gross fixed capital formation (wealth) Granger caused the level of agricultural export performance while agricultural export performance level Granger caused volume of domestic credit advanced to the private sector of the economy both with p values of 0.07. Conclusion: It was recommended that macroeconomic policies aimed at increasing farm credit and reduction of interest rate should be strengthened; while programmes to build resilience to climate variability such as irrigation facilities and capacity building in climate change adaptation should be put in place by the Nigerian government.