ABSTRACT
Background: The variability in the duration of lactational amenorrhoea (LA) lead to develop statistical multivariate models to predict the risk of the appearance of the first postpartum menstruation. Aim: To estimate the probability of recovering the first postpartum menstruation by means of a survival analysis, including hormonal levels and other parameters as predictor variables. Material and Methods: Eighty one mothers in exclusive breastfeeding until the sixth postpartum month, in whom estradiol, basal and post suckling prolactin were measured at the third post partum month, were studied. The variables that better predict the appearance of the first menstruation between the 3rd and 12th postpartum months, were identified using a Cox model survival analysis. Results: The median amenorrhea survival time (the lapse when the chance of recovering menstruation is 50 percent) was 209 days from delivery. Dichotomized estradiol and post suckling prolactin were the only significant variables that predicted the return of menstruation, with cutoff points of 190 pmol/ and 2,550 mIU/L, respectively. Conclusions: Post suckling prolantin and estradiol levels, measured at the third post partum month, are predictors for the time of appearance of the first postpartum menstruation.