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Objective:To analyze the epidemic characteristics of brucellosis in China from 2004 to 2018, in order to understand the development trend of brucellosis.Methods:The surveillance data of brucellosis in China from 2004 to 2018 were collected from National Public Health Science Data Center. Joinpoint regression was used to analyze the trend of brucellosis incidence in China and various provinces. Overall trends were estimated by the average annual percentage change (AAPC). Seasonal and trend decomposition using loess (STL) was used to analyze the seasonal characteristics of brucellosis in China and various provinces. The age-related thermodynamic diagram of incidence rate was used to analyze the characteristics of age-onset changes.Results:From 2004 to 2018, a total of 524 980 brucellosis cases and 16 deaths were reported nationwide, with a incidence rate of 2.61/100 000 and a case fatality rate of (3.05 × 10 -3)%. The incidence of brucellosis in China was on the rise (AAPC = 11.58%, 95% CI: 7.91% - 15.25%, P < 0.001). There was no significant trend of change in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, Shanxi and Shaanxi provinces ( P > 0.05). Tibet Autonomous Region showed a downward trend (AAPC = - 55.19%, P < 0.001). All other provinces were showing an upward trend (AAPC > 0, P < 0.05). The peak incidence in China occurred from April to June. In terms of provinces, the peak incidence in Hainan, Sichuan, Guizhou, Fujian and Anhui provinces occurred from April to August, the peak incidence in Chongqing and Shanghai cities occurred from June to August, and the peak incidence in other provinces was generally from April to June. There were reports of brucellosis cases in all age groups nationwide, and the age distribution showed an inverted "V" shape. The peak incidence occurred in the 50 - 54 years old (5.43/100 000), followed by the 60 - 64 years old (4.94/100 000). From 2004 to 2018, the top 3 age groups of incidence rate changed from 40 - 44, 50 - 54 and 35 - 39 years old in 2004 to 50 - 54, 60 - 64 and 55 - 59 years old in 2018. Conclusions:The incidence of brucellosis is on the rise nationwide and in most provinces from 2004 to 2018. The high incidence age is gradually changing to the elderly population.
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Objective To analyze the epidemic characteristics and causes of post-exposure immunization failure of rabies in Hubei Province from 2015 to 2021, and to provide evidence for the prevention and control of rabies in Hubei Province. Methods The investigation data of rabies cases in Hubei Province from 2015 to 2021 were collected, and descriptive epidemiological methods were used for data analysis. Results A total of 127 cases of rabies were reported in Hubei Province from 2015 to 2021, with an average annual incidence of 0.31/million, showing a downward trend. The male to female ratio was 1.70:1. Farmers accounted for 82.67% of the total cases, and the 50-79 years old group accounted for 75.59%. The incidence was mainly concentrated in Xiangyang, Shiyan, Yichang and Jingmen, accounting for 77.17%. Most of the cases were concentrated in summer and autumn. Exposure of grade Ⅱand Ⅲ accounted for 24.79% and 75.21%, respectively. Hands, lower limbs below knee, head, arms and lower limbs above knee accounted for 46.15%, 25.21%, 9.40%, 8.55% and 7.69% of the exposed parts, respectively. Dogs, cats and wild animals accounted for 95.73%, 3.42% and 0.85% of the exposed animals, respectively. Stray animals, domesticated animals, neighbors' animals and wild animals accounted for 41.88%, 37.61%, 19.66% and 0.85% of animal sources, respectively. Neither the neighbors’ animals nor domesticated animals were vaccinated against veterinary rabies virus. After exposure, 8.55% of patients went to medical institutions for standard treatment of wounds, 9.40% were vaccinated with human rabies vaccine, and 4.55% of patients with grade III exposure were injected with rabies virus immunoglobulin. The incubation period within 6 months, from 6 months to 1 year, and over 1 year accounted for 72.22%, 14.74%, and 12.04%, respectively. The exposure degree (Z=-1.98, P 2=10.91, P 2=15.73, P < 0.05) had statistically significant effects on the incubation period. Among the 11 cases of post-exposure immunization failure, all were grade Ⅲ exposure, 63.63% were exposed to the head and face, 81.81% were not fully vaccinated with human rabies virus vaccine, 63.63% were not immunized with immunoglobulin, and 27.27% were inappropriate wound treatment. Conclusion The key to rabies prevention and control is to standardize dog management, strengthen rabies education, standardize post-exposure wound treatment, timely vaccinate against rabies virus, and inject rabies virus immunoglobulin when necessary.
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Objective:To analyze the epidemic characteristics and periodicity of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Jingzhou City, Hubei Province, and provide a basis for scientific prevention and control of HFRS in Jingzhou City.Methods:Retrospective analysis was used to collect HFRS case data and population data of Jingzhou City and 8 counties (cities, districts) within its jurisdiction, including Shashi District, Jingzhou District, Gongan County, Jianli City, Jiangling County, Shishou City, Honghu City, and Songzi City from 1962 to 2020, from the Archives of the Jingzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the Infectious Disease Report Information Management System of the China Disease Control and Prevention Information System; and the epidemic characteristics of HFRS was analyzed in Jingzhou City and 8 counties (cities, districts) within its jurisdiction. The periodicity of HFRS onset was determined using wavelet analysis.Results:From 1962 to 2020, 18 936 HFRS cases were reported in Jingzhou City, with an average incidence rate of 5.95/100 000. There were a total of three epidemic peaks, namely from 1972 to 1973 (24.82/100 000, 24.84/100 000), 1983 (60.08/100 000), and 1995 (14.57/100 000). According to different regions, the high incidence areas of HFRS showed a phased transfer trend: from the 1960s to the 1970s, the Jiangbei area (Honghu City, Jianli City) was the highest incidence area; in the 1980s and 1990s, the high incidence areas were transferred to Jiangnan area (Songzi City, Shishou City, and Gongan County); after 2005, high incidence areas were relocated to Jiangbei area (Honghu City, Jianli City, Jiangling County). The wavelet analysis results showed that there were 12.30 and 21.77 years of HFRS epidemic cycles in Jingzhou City before 2000 ( P < 0.05); among them, the periodicity of Shashi District, Gongan County, Jiangling County, Shishou City, and Honghu City was relatively consistent with that of Jingzhou City, with epidemic cycles of about 12 or 22 years ( P < 0.05). Conclusions:Jingzhou City is currently at the peak of a 22-year epidemic cycle of HFRS, with Jiangbei area as the high incidence areas. The 12-year epidemic cycle in Jingzhou City has ended after 2000.
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Objective:To analyze the effects of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (SARIMA), generalized additive model (GAM), and long-short term memory model (LSTM) in fitting and predicting the incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), so as to provide references for optimizing the HFRS prediction model.Methods:The monthly incidence data of HFRS from 2004 to 2017 of the whole country and the top 9 provinces with the highest incidence of HFRS (Heilongjiang, Shaanxi, Jilin, Liaoning, Shandong, Hebei, Jiangxi, Zhejiang and Hunan) were collected in the Public Health Science Data Center (https://www.phsciencedata.cn/), of which the data from 2004 to 2016 were used as training data, and the data from January to December 2017 were used as test data. The SARIMA, GAM, and LSTM of HFRS incidence in the whole country and 9 provinces were fitted with the training data; the fitted model was used to predict the incidence of HFRS from January to December 2017, and compared with the test data. The mean absolute percentage error ( MAPE) was used to evaluate the model fitting and prediction accuracy. When MAPE < 20%, the model fitting or prediction effect was good, 20%-50% was acceptable, and > 50% was poor. Results:From the perspective of overall fitting and prediction effect, the optimal model for the whole country and Heilongjiang, Shaanxi, Jilin, Liaoning and Jiangxi was SARIMA ( MAPE was 19.68%, 20.48%, 44.25%, 19.59%, 23.82% and 35.29%, respectively), among which the fitting and prediction effects of the whole country and Jilin were good, and the rest were acceptable. The optimal model for Shandong and Zhejiang was GAM ( MAPE was 18.29% and 21.25%, respectively), the fitting and prediction effect of Shandong was good, and Zhejiang was acceptable. The optimal model for Hebei and Hunan was LSTM ( MAPE was 26.52% and 22.69%, respectively), and the fitting and prediction effects were acceptable. From the perspective of fitting effect, GAM had the highest fitting accuracy in the whole country data, with MAPE = 10.44%. From the perspective of prediction effect, LSTM had the highest prediction accuracy in the whole country data, with MAPE = 12.23%. Conclusions:SARIMA, GAM, and LSTM can all be used as the optimal models for fitting the incidence of HFRS, but the optimal models fitted in different regions show great differences. In the future, in the establishment of HFRS prediction models, as many alternative models as possible should be included for screening to ensure higher fitting and prediction accuracy.
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Objective To explore the applicability of the TBATS in predicting the incidence of mumps. Methods The incidence of mumps of Jiangxi Province from 2004 to 2017 was used as the demonstration data. The incidence of mumps in Jiangxi Province from July to December 2017 was used as test data. The training data from January 2004 to June 2017 were used to train the TBATS and the SARIMA, and predict the value from July to December 2017. The fitted and predicted values were compared with the test data. The MAPE, RMSE, MAE and MER were used to evaluate model fitting and prediction effects. Results SARIMA (1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 with drift was the optimal SARIMA. The MAPE, MAE, RMSE and MER fitted by the TBATS and the SARIMA were 15.06%, 0.21, 0.29, 13.57% and 21.93%, 0.29, 0.41, 18.73%, respectively. The MAPE, MAE, RMSE and MER predicted by the TBATS and the SARIMA were 7.95%, 0.08, 0.11, 7.12% and 15.33%, 0.17, 0.18, 14.93%. Conclusion The TBATS has high accuracy in predicting the incidence of mumps and is worthy of popularization and application.
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Objective To investigate the status and influencing factors of road traffic injuries among children aged 0-17 in Shashi District, Jingzhou City, and to provide a basis for formulating strategies and measures to prevent road traffic injuries in children. Methods A staged random sampling method was used to select preschool children from 8 communities, and students from 8 primary schools, 8 junior high schools and 4 senior high schools, respectively, in Shashi District of Jingzhou. A questionnaire survey was conducted on the children on road traffic safety, and the incidence of children's traffic injuries and their cognition and behavior were analyzed. Results A total of 8 299 children completed the survey. The incidence rate of non-fatal road traffic injuries was 1.07%. Children aged 11-15 years had the highest incidence of road traffic injuries among all age groups, accounting for 66.29% of the total injuries, followed by the 16-20 years old group. The main risk factors of road traffic injuries in children were not taking the special lane when riding a bicycle, running red lights, using mobile phones when walking, and not wearing a helmet when riding a motorcycle. Walking was the main way for students to have road traffic injuries. Conclusion Children's road traffic injuries became a social problem that should not be ignored. Students above fourth grade were the key population for children's road traffic injury intervention in Shashi District. Road traffic safety publicity and intervention should be carried out for children of different ages and genders.