ABSTRACT
Abstract: Introduction: EuroSCORE is a probabilistic model with good performance in the prognosis of mortality in heart surgery in many latitudes. It is recommendable to validate it in hospitals where it is employed. Objective: To validate the EuroSCORE model in adult patients at the Hospital Regional de Alta Especialidad del Bajío (HRAEB) of León, Guanajuato, Mexico. Material and methods: We conducted an observational transversal, and retrospective study, accomplishing this through the review of the clinical files of patients submitted to heart surgery with and without extracorporeal circulation pump from 01/01/2008 to 12/31/2013 at the HRAEB. This included mortality up to hospital discharge, utilizing the on-line calculator of the EuroSCORE program to estimate risk of death. In order to validate the EuroSCORE model, we assessed discrimination and calibration through the Area Under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve and χ2 test with Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) goodness-of-fit, respectively. Results: A total of 342 patients, aged 50.02 ± 16.66 years, 181 males (52.9%) and 161 women (47.1%). The area under the ROC curve of the additive model was 0.763, and of the Hosmer-Lemeshow test was 5.30, with p = 0.62. The area under the ROC curve of the logistic model was 0.761 and of the Hosmer-Lemeshow test, 8.78, with p = 0.36. Conclusion: The EuroSCORE model is a reliable score for estimating the probabilities of death in adult patients submitted to heart surgery with or without the pump at the HRAEB.
Resumen: Introducción: EuroSCORE es un modelo probabilístico con buen desempeño en el pronóstico de mortalidad en cirugía cardiaca en muchas latitudes. Es recomendable validarlo en los hospitales donde se emplea. Objetivo: Validar el modelo EuroSCORE en pacientes adultos en el Hospital Regional de Alta Especialidad del Bajío (HRAEB) de León, Guanajuato, México. Material y métodos: Se realizó un estudio observacional transversal y retrospectivo, que se completó con la revisión de los expedientes clínicos de pacientes sometidos a cirugía cardiaca con y sin bomba de circulación extracorpórea desde el 01/01/2008 hasta el 31/12/2013 en el HRAEB. Esto incluyó la mortalidad hasta el alta hospitalaria, utilizando la calculadora en línea del programa EuroSCORE para estimar el riesgo de muerte. Para validar el modelo EuroSCORE, evaluamos la discriminación y la calibración a través de la curva de características de operación del receptor (ROC) y la prueba de χ2 con la efectividad de ajuste de Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L), respectivamente. Resultados: Un total de 342 pacientes, de 50.02 ± 16.66 años, 181 hombres (52.9%) y 161 mujeres (47.1%). El área bajo la curva ROC del modelo aditivo fue de 0.763, y la de la prueba Hosmer-Lemeshow fue de 5.30, con p = 0.62. El área bajo la curva ROC del modelo logístico fue 0.761 y de la prueba Hosmer-Lemeshow, 8.78, con p = 0.36. Conclusión: El modelo EuroSCORE es una herramienta confiable para estimar las probabilidades de muerte en pacientes adultos sometidos a cirugía cardiaca con o sin bomba en el HRAEB.
Subject(s)
Humans , Thoracic Surgery/methods , Risk Adjustment , Cross-Sectional Studies , Retrospective Studies , Risk AssessmentABSTRACT
Cardiac Rehabilitation and secondary prevention programs are a group of therapeutic maneuvers that can reduce the adverse impact of cardiovascular disease, by using the cardiovascular risk factors reduction, through secondary prevention and exercise training therapy programs. This program started in Mexico in 1944, since then, several health institutions are working on a public or private basis, mainly in an isolated way. This article presents data about fourteen cardiac rehabilitation institutions that answered the first national registry of cardiac rehabilitation programs (RENAPREC) in 2007. On this study, we observed that these centers were mainly private; nevertheless, almost all of the referred population was attended in public health institutions. The core-components for an adequate cardiac rehabilitation attention were satisfied by almost all these centers. The patients used to pay, by their own, this kind of medical practice. In our country, only the 0.58% of the population, that needed to be included on a cardiac rehabilitation program, was covered. This phenomena is due, in one hand, to the reduced number of cardiac rehabilitation centers in Mexico, but on the other hand, it happens because the primary physician do not refer all the eligible patients to this kid of programs. RENAPREC can be one first attempt to consolidate all the activities around the inter-institutional cardiac rehabilitation and secondary prevention programs in our country.