Trends in gastrointestinal cancer incidence in Iran, 2001-2010: a joinpoint analysis / 한국역학회지

OBJECTIVES: The main purpose of this study was to evaluate changes in the time trends of stomach, colorectal, and esophageal cancer during the past decade in Iran. METHODS: Cancer incidence data for the years 2001 to 2010 were obtained from the cancer registration of the Ministry of Health. All incidence rates were directly age-standardized to the world standard population. In order to identified significant changes in time trends, we performed a joinpoint analysis. The annual percent change (APC) for each segment of the trends was then calculated. RESULTS: The incidence of stomach cancer increased from 4.18 and 2.41 per 100,000 population in men and women, respectively, in 2001 to 17.06 (APC, 16.7%) and 8.85 (APC, 16.2%) per 100,000 population in 2010 for men and women, respectively. The corresponding values for colorectal cancer were 2.12 and 2.00 per 100,000 population for men and women, respectively, in 2001 and 11.28 (APC, 20.0%) and 10.33 (APC, 20.0%) per 100,000 in 2010. For esophageal cancer, the corresponding increase was from 3.25 and 2.10 per 100,000 population in 2001 to 5.57 (APC, 12.0%) and 5.62 (APC, 11.2%) per 100,000 population among men and women, respectively. The incidence increased most rapidly for stomach cancer in men and women aged 80 years and older (APC, 23.7% for men; APC, 18.6% for women), for colorectal cancer in men aged 60 to 69 years (APC, 24.2%) and in women aged 50 to 59 years (APC, 25.1%), and for esophageal cancer in men and women aged 80 years and older (APC, 17.5% for men; APC,15.3% for women) over the period of the study. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of gastrointestinal cancer significantly increased during the past decade. Therefore, monitoring the trends of cancer incidence can assist efforts for cancer prevention and control.

Prediction of mortality in pediatric burn injuries: R-Baux score to be applied in children [pediatrics-Baux score]

R-Baux score has obtained an acceptable validity and accuracy in predicting burn-related mortality. However, its usage and efficacy among pediatric burn patients has not been well documented. The aim of this study was to employ Pediatrics-Baux [P-Buax] score as modified version of R-Baux score in these patients to determine how it could be applicable in this population. Through a prospective study, 870 pediatric burn patients were enrolled. P-Baux and R-Baux scores were calculated for each patient and they were categorized to different groups according to these scores. Mortality and further death probability were measured for each subject and then analyzed by logistic regression model to reveal how they change in relation with age in pediatric burn patients. R-Baux score for 95% probability of death revealed a mean of 73 among patients of this study. Also P-Baux score was measured in these patients with inhalation injury which showed to be 55 for 95% probability of death. Results showed that age had a positive prognostic value in contrast to the negative prognostic value of Total Body Surface Area [TBSA] and inhalation injury. Our analysis showed that in children under the age of 15 years, age has a positive prognostic value while TBSA and inhalation injuries had negative prognostic values in relation to mortality. Hence, in contrast to the adult population, burn injury related mortality may be predicted by modified R-Baux score as [TBSA - age + [18xR]] which could be named as P-Baux score

Designing a model for trauma system management using public health approach: the case of Iran

Trauma is a leading cause of death and disability around the world. Injuries are responsible for about six million deaths annually, of which ninety percent occur in developing countries. In Iran, injuries are the most common cause of death among age groups below fifty. Trauma system development is a systematic and comprehensive approach to injury prevention and treatment whose effectiveness has been proved. The present study aims at designing a trauma system management model as the first step toward trauma system establishment in Iran. In this qualitative research, a conceptual framework was developed based on the public health approach and three well-known trauma system models. We used Benchmarks, Indicators and Scoring [BIS] to analyze the current situation of Iran trauma care system. Then the trauma system management was designed using the policy development phase of public health approach The trauma system management model, validated by a panel of experts, describes lead agency, trauma system plan, policy-making councils, and data-based control according to the four main functions of management: leading, planning, organizing and controlling. This model may be implemented in two phases: the exclusive phase, focusing on resource integration and the inclusive phase, which concentrates on system development. The model could facilitate the development of trauma system in Iran through pilot studies as the assurance phase of public health approach. Furthermore, the model can provide a practical framework for trauma system management at the international level

Strengthening injury surveillance system in iran / 中华创伤杂志(英文版)

<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To strengthen the current Injury Surveillance System (IS System) in order to better monitor injury conditions, improve protection ways and promote safety.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>At first we carried out a study to evaluate the frameworks of IS System in the developed countries. Then all the available documents from World Health Organization, Eastern Mediterranean Regional Organization, as well as Minister of Health and Medical Education concerning Iran were reviewed. Later a national stakeholder's consultation was held to collect opinions and views. A national workshop was also intended for provincial representatives from 41 universities to identify the barriers and limitations of the existing program and further to strengthen injury surveillance.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>The evaluation of the current IS System revealed many problems, mainly presented as lack of accurate pre- and post-hospital death registry, need of precise injury data registry in outpatient medical centers, incomplete injury data registry in hospitals and lack of accuracy in definition of variables in injury registry. The five main characteristics of current IS System including flexibility, acceptability, simplicity, usefulness and timeliness were evaluated as moderate by experts.</p><p><b>CONCLUSIONS</b>Major revisions must be considered in the current IS System in Iran. The following elements should be added to the questionnaire: identifier, manner of arrival to the hospital, situation of the injured patient, consumption of alcohol and opioids, other involved participants in the accident, intention, severity and site of injury, side effects of surgery and medication, as well as one month follow-up results. Data should be collected from 10% of all hospitals in Iran and analyzed every 3 months. Simultaneously data should be online to be retrieved by researches.</p>