ABSTRACT
Objective:To Constructing a nomogram based on clinical, ultrasound and BRAF V600E gene for predicting cervical lymph node metastasis in patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC).Methods:The clinical data of 287 patients with PTC (374 malignant nodules) from December 2019 to December 2021 in the First Affiliated Hospital of Hunan Normal University were analyzed retrospectively. Among them, there were 205 nodes with cervical lymph node metastasis and 169 nodes without cervical lymph node metastasis. The echo type, capsule, boundary, shape, number, diameter, location, cystic and solid properties, aspect ratio, blood flow signal, echo distribution, ultrasonic classification, microcalcification and enlarged lymph nodes were observed by ultrasound. The mutation of BRAF V600E gene was detected by fluorescence polymerase chain reaction. The nomograph model for predicting neck lymph node metastasis in patients with PTC was constructed and validated by R3.6.3 software.Results:Univariate analysis result showed that gender, age, microcalcifications, aspect ratio, morphology, blood flow signal, diameter, echo distribution, enlarged lymph nodes, ultrasound classification and BRAF V600E gene were the risk factors for cervical lymph node metastasis in patients with PTC ( P<0.05 or <0.01). Multivariate Logistic regression analysis result showed that age (<40 years old), ultrasonic classification (≥4a) and diameter (>1 cm) were independent risk factors for cervical lymph node metastasis in patients with PTC ( OR = 2.847, 1.436 and 2.475; 95% CI 1.827 to 4.436, 1.075 to 1.918 and 1.505 to 4.069; P<0.01 or <0.05). The age, ultrasonic classification and diameter were included as predictors for constructing the nomogram model. The receiver operating characteristic curve analysis result shows that the area under the curve predicted by the nomogram model for neck lymph node metastasis in patients with PTC was 0.692 (95% CI 0.631 to 0.753). Conclusions:Nomogram based on age, ultrasonic classification and diameter is of high value in predicting neck lymph node metastasis in patients with PTC.