A Case of New Rapidly Progressing Ground-glass Nodule Lung Adenocarcinoma Near Primary Lesion after Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy / 中国肺癌杂志

Ground-glass nodule (GGN) lung cancer often progresses slowly in clinical and there are few clinical studies on long-term follow-up of patients with operable GGN lung cancer treated with stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT). We present a successful case of GGN lung cancer treated with SBRT, but a new GGN was found in the lung adjacent to the SBRT target during follow-up. The nodule progressed rapidly and was confirmed as lung adenocarcinoma by surgical resection. No significant risk factors and related driving genes were found in molecular pathological findings and genetic tests. It deserves further study whether new GGN is related to the SBRT. This case suggests that the follow-up after SBRT should be vigilant against the occurrence of new rapidly progressive lung cancer in the target area and adjacent lung tissue.
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Preoperative prediction of Ki-67 expression status in breast cancer based on dynamic contrast enhanced MRI radiomics combined with clinical imaging features model / 中华放射学杂志

Objective:To investigate the value of preoperative prediction of Ki-67 expression status in breast cancer based on multi-phase enhanced MRI combined with clinical imaging characteristics prediction model.Methods:This study was retrospective. A total of 213 breast cancer patients who underwent surgical treatment at Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College between June 2016 and May 2017 were enrolled. All patients were female, aged 24-78 (51±10) years, and underwent routine breast MRI within 2 weeks prior to surgery. According to the different Ki-67 expression of postoperative pathological results, patients were divided into high expression group (Ki-67≥20%, 153 cases) and low expression group (Ki-67<20%, 60 cases). The radiomic features of breast cancer lesions were extracted from phase 2 (CE-2) and phase 7 (CE-7) images of dynamic contrast enhanced (DCE)-MRI, and all cases were divided into training and test sets according to the ratio of 7∶3. The radiomic features were first selected using ANOVA and Wilcoxon signed-rank test, followed by the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator method regression model. The same method of parameters selection was applied to clinical information and conventional imaging features [including gland classification, degree of background parenchymal enhancement, multifocal/multicentric, lesion location, lesion morphology, lesion long diameter, lesion short diameter, T 2WI signal characteristics, diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) signal characteristics, apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) values, time-signal intensity curve type, and axillary lymph nodes larger than 1 cm in short axis]. Support vector machine (SVM) was then used to construct prediction models for Ki-67 high and low expression states. The predictive performance of the models were evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and area under cueve(AUC). Results:Totally 1 029 radiomic features were extracted from CE-2 and CE-7 images, respectively, and 9 and 7 best features were obtained after selection, respectively. And combining the two sets of features for a total of 16 features constituted the CE-2+CE-7 image best features. Five valuable parameters including lesion location, lesion short diameter, DWI signal characteristics, ADC values, and axillary lymph nodes larger than 1 cm in short axis, were selected from all clinical image features. The SVM prediction models obtained from the radiomic features of CE-2 and CE-7 images had a high AUC in predicting Ki-67 expression status (>0.70) in both the training set and the test set. The models were constructed by combining the CE-2, CE-7, and CE-2+CE-7 radiomic features with clinical imaging features, respectively, and the corresponding model performance in predicting Ki-67 expression status was improved compared with the models obtained by using the CE-2, CE-7, and CE-2+CE-7 radiomic features alone. The SVM prediction model obtained from CE-2+CE-7 radiomic features combined with clinical imaging features had the best prediction performance, with AUC of 0.895, accuracy of 84.6%, sensitivity of 87.9%, and specificity of 76.2% for predicting Ki-67 expression status in the training set and AUC of 0.822, accuracy of 70.3%, sensitivity of 76.1%, and specificity of 55.6% in test sets.Conclusion:The SVM prediction model based on DCE-MRI radiomic features can effectively predict Ki-67 expression status, and the combination of radiomic features and clinical imaging features can further improve the model prediction performance.

Predicting COVID-19 epidemiological trend by applying population mobility data in two-stage modeling / 浙江大学学报·医学版

:To predict the epidemiological trend of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by mathematical modeling based on the population mobility and the epidemic prevention and control measures. : As of February 8，2020，the information of 151 confirmed cases in Yueqing，Zhejiang province were obtained，including patients' infection process，population mobility between Yueqing and Wuhan，etc. To simulate and predict the development trend of COVID-19 in Yueqing, the study established two-stage mathematical models，integrating the population mobility data with the date of symptom appearance of confirmed cases and the transmission dynamics of imported and local cases. : It was found that in the early stage of the pandemic，the number of daily imported cases from Wuhan (using the date of symptom appearance) was positively associated with the number of population travelling from Wuhan to Yueqing on the same day and 6 and 9 days before that. The study predicted that the final outbreak size in Yueqing would be 170 according to the number of imported cases estimated by consulting the population number travelling from Wuhan to Yueqing and the susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model; while the number would be 165 if using the reported daily number of imported cases. These estimates were close to the 170，the actual monitoring number of cases in Yueqing as of April 27，2020. : The two-stage modeling approach used in this study can accurately predict COVID-19 epidemiological trend.

Impact of socioeconomic status，population mobility and control measures on COVID-10 development in major cities of China / 浙江大学学报·医学版

:To evaluate the impact of socioeconomic status，population mobility，prevention and control measures on the early-stage coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) development in major cities of China. : The rate of daily new confirmed COVID-19 cases in the 51 cities with the largest number of cumulative confirmed cases as of February 19，2020 (except those in Hubei province) were collected and analyzed using the time series cluster analysis. It was then assessed according to three aspects，that is, socioeconomic status，population mobility，and control measures for the pandemic. : According to the analysis on the 51 cities，4 development patterns of COVID-19 were obtained，including a high-incidence pattern (in Xinyu)，a late high-incidence pattern (in Ganzi)，a moderate incidence pattern (in Wenzhou and other 12 cities)，and a low and stable incidence pattern (in Hangzhou and other 35 cities). Cities with different types and within the same type both had different scores on the three aspects. : There were relatively large difference on the COVID-19 development among different cities in China，possibly affected by socioeconomic status，population mobility and prevention and control measures that were taken. Therefore，a timely public health emergency response and travel restriction measures inside the city can interfere the development of the pandemic. Population flow from high risk area can largely affect the number of cumulative confirmed cases.

Impact of Wuhan lockdown on the spread of COVID-19 in China: a study based on the data of population mobility / 浙江大学学报·医学版

This study aimed to quantitatively assess the effectiveness of the Wuhan lockdown measure on controlling the spread of coronavirus diesase 2019 (COVID-19). : Firstly，estimate the daily new infection rate in Wuhan before January 23，2020 when the city went into lockdown by consulting the data of Wuhan population mobility and the number of cases imported from Wuhan in 217 cities of Mainland China. Then estimate what the daily new infection rate would have been in Wuhan from January 24 to January 30th if the lockdown measure had been delayed for 7 days，assuming that the daily new infection in Wuhan after January 23 increased in a high，moderate and low trend respectively (using exponential, linear and logarithm growth models). Based on that，calculate the number of infection cases imported from Wuhan during this period. Finally，predict the possible impact of 7-day delayed lockdown in Wuhan on the epidemic situation in China using the susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) model. : The daily new infection rate in Wuhan was estimated to be 0.021%，0.026%，0.029%，0.033% and 0.070% respectively from January 19 to January 23. And there were at least 20 066 infection cases in Wuhan by January 23，2020. If Wuhan lockdown measure had been delayed for 7 days，the daily new infection rate on January 30 would have been 0.335% in the exponential growth model，0.129% in the linear growth model，and 0.070% in the logarithm growth model. Correspondingly，there would have been 32 075，24 819 and 20 334 infection cases travelling from Wuhan to other areas of Mainland China，and the number of cumulative confirmed cases as of March 19 in Mainland China would have been 3.3-3.9 times of the officially reported number. Conclusions: Timely taking city-level lockdown measure in Wuhan in the early stage of COVID-19 outbreak is essential in containing the spread of the disease in China.