ABSTRACT
Objective: To explore how a genetically-influenced characteristic (the level of response to alcohol [LR]), ethnicity, and sex relate to environmental and attitudinal characteristics (peer drinking [PEER], drinking to cope [COPE], and alcohol expectancies [EXPECT]) regarding future alcohol-related blackouts (ARBs). Methods: Structural equation models (SEMs) were used to evaluate how baseline variables related to ARB patterns in 462 college students over 55 weeks. Data were extracted from a longitudinal study of heavy drinking and its consequences at a U.S. university. Results: In the SEM analysis, female sex and Asian ethnicity directly predicted future ARBs (beta weights 0.10 and -0.11, respectively), while all other variables had indirect impacts on ARBs through alcohol quantities (beta weights ~ 0.23 for European American ethnicity and low LR, 0.21 for cannabis use and COPE, and 0.44 for PEER). Alcohol quantities then related to ARBs with beta = 0.44. The SEM explained 23% of the variance. Conclusion: These data may be useful in identifying college students who are more likely to experience future ARBs over a 1-year period. They enhance our understanding of whether the relationships of predictors to ARBs are direct or mediated through baseline drinking patterns, information that may be useful in prevention strategies for ARBs.