ABSTRACT
The aim of this study was to estimate the needs for mental health services in Latin América and the Caribbean by the year 2000. Two types of data were used: statistics on mortality due to psychosocial and psychopathological causes, and data on psychiatric morbidity which were extrapolated from a study on the prevalence of psychiatric disorders in Puerto Rico. As a result of a rise in the prevalence of certain psychiatric disorders that lead to death, particularly those that involve violence, it is predicted that gross mortality from these causes will increase by 11.2 percent between 1985 and the year 2000. Parallel to this trend will be an increase in the number of years of potential life lost. In addition, it is estimated that 88.3 million people in Latin América and the Caribbean will suffer specific psychiatric disorders. This figure represents an increase of 48.1 percent over 1985. There will also be a rise in the gross prevalence figures for this group of disorders. There is no question that the predicted population growth differential will have a serious impact on the demand for mental health services. The worsening of socioeconomic conditions in Latin América and the Caribbean, coupled with other social factors, may cause the increases to be even greater