ABSTRACT
ObjectiveTo investigate the value of platelet-albumin-bilirubin index （PALBI） combined with AIMS65 score in predicting rebleeding and death within 6 weeks after admission in patients with liver cirrhosis and acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding （AUGIB）. MethodsA retrospective study was conducted for 238 patients with liver cirrhosis and AUGIB who were hospitalized in The First Affiliated Hospital of Jinzhou Medical University from February 2021 to October 2022， and all patients were followed up for 6 weeks. According to the prognosis， they were divided into death group with 65 patients and survival group with 173 patients， and according to the presence or absence of rebleeding， they were divided into non-rebleeding group with 149 patients and rebleeding group with 89 patients. General data and laboratory markers （including blood routine， liver/renal function， and coagulation）， and PALBI， AIMS65 score， Child-Turcotte-Pugh （CTP） score， and Model for End-stage Liver Disease （MELD） score were calculated on admission. The independent-samples t test or the Mann-Whitney U test was used for comparison of continuous data between two groups， and the chi-square test was used for comparison of categorical data between two groups. A multivariate logistic regression model analysis was used to investigate the risk factors for death or rebleeding within 6 weeks after admission in patients with liver cirrhosis and AUGIB. The receiver operating characteristic （ROC） curve and the area under the ROC curve （AUC） were used to investigate the predictive efficacy of each scoring system， and the DeLong test was used for comparison of AUC. ResultsThere were significant differences between the death group and the survival group in hematemesis， past history of varices， albumin （Alb）， total bilirubin （TBil）， international normalized ratio （INR）， creatinine （Cr）， prothrombin time （PT）， systolic blood pressure， PALBI， AIMS65 score， CTP score， and MELD score （all P<0.05）. The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that hematemesis （odds ratio ［OR］=4.34， 95% confidence interval ［CI］： 1.88 — 10.05， P<0.001）， past history of varices （OR=3.51， 95%CI： 1.37 — 8.98， P=0.009）， PALBI （OR=4.49， 95%CI： 1.48 — 13.64， P=0.008）， and AIMS65 score （OR=3.85， 95%CI： 2.35 — 6.30， P<0.001） were independent risk factors for death. The ROC curve analysis of each scoring system in predicting survival showed that CTP score， MELD score， PALBI， AIMS65 score， and PALBI combined with AIMS65 score had an AUC of 0.758， 0.798， 0.789， 0.870， and 0.888， respectively， suggesting that PALBI combined with AIMS65 score had a significantly larger AUC than the four scoring systems used alone （all P<0.05）. There were significant differences between the rebleeding group and the non-rebleeding group in hematemesis， history of diabetes， Alb， TBil， INR， Cr， PT， PALBI， AIMS65 score， CTP score， and MELD score （all P<0.05）. The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that PALBI （OR=2.41， 95%CI： 1.17 — 4.95， P=0.017） and AIMS65 score （OR=1.58， 95%CI： 1.17 — 2.15， P=0.003） were independent risk factors for rebleeding. The ROC curve analysis of each scoring system in predicting rebleeding showed that CTP score， MELD score， PALBI， AIMS65 score， and PALBI combined with AIMS65 score had an AUC of 0.680， 0.719， 0.709， 0.711， and 0.741， respectively， suggesting that PALBI combined with AIMS65 score had the largest AUC （all P<0.05）， but with a relatively low specificity. ConclusionPALBI combined with AIMS65 score has a certain value in predicting death within 6 weeks after admission in patients with liver cirrhosis and AUGIB， with a better value than CTP score and MELD score alone. PALBI combined with AIMS65 score has a relatively low value in predicting rebleeding within 6 weeks， with an acceptable accuracy.