ABSTRACT
Objective:To investigate the value of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) in predicting the prognosis of patients with severe heat stroke.Methods:A retrospective analysis was performed on patients with severe heat stroke hospitalized in the ICU of Changzhou No. 2 People's Hospital from June 2013 to September 2019. The patients were divided into the survival group and death group according to their 30-day survival. The basic data of the patients were recorded. Blood routine, liver and kidney function parameters, troponin, brain natriuretic peptide, myocardial enzyme spectrum, blood coagulation routine, and acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE)Ⅱ were analyzed within 24 h after admission. Multivariate COX regression analysis was used to screen the risk factors of 30-day death. Spearman correlation test was used to analyze the correlation between NLR and APACHEII score. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were drawn to assess the predictive value of NLR for the 30-day death in patients with severe heat stroke. Kaplan-Meier survival curve was used to analyze 30-day cumulative survival of high-risk patients.Results:A total of 115 patients with severe heat stroke were included in this study, and they were divided into the survival group ( n=92) and the death group ( n=23) according to the prognosis. NLR in the death group was significantly higher than that in the survival group ( P<0.05). Multivariate COX regression analysis showed that NLR was an independent risk factor for death after adjusting confounders ( HR=1.091, 95% CI: 1.049-1.136, P<0.001). Spearman correlation test showed a correlation between NLR and APACHEII score ( r=0.655, P<0.001). ROC curve analysis showed that NLR had the greatest predictive value for 30-day death, with an area under ROC curve (AUC) of 0.787, a sensitivity of 82.6%, a specificity of 67.4%, and the cut-off value of 7.35. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis curve shows that patients in the below NLR cut-off value group had a significantly higher 30-day survival rate than those in the above NLR cut-off value group ( P<0.001). Conclusions:The increased NLR is a high risk factor for death in patients with severe heat stroke, and helps predict the prognosis of patients with severe heat stroke.
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE@#To investigate the clinical significance of early troponin I (TnI) level in the prognosis of severe heat stroke.@*METHODS@#Clinical data of 131 patients with severe heat stroke in the intensive care unit (ICU) of the Affiliated Changzhou NO.2 People's Hospital of Nanjing Medical University (study dataset) and ICU 67 patients with severe heat stroke in Jintan First People's Hospital of Changzhou (validation dataset) were retrospectively analyzed from June 2013 to September 2022. The patients were divided into survival group and death group according to 30-day outcomes. TnI was collected within 24 hours after admission to the emergency department. Cox regression analysis was performed to analyze the risk factors of severe heat stroke death. Spearman correlation test was used to analyze the correlation between TnI and heart rate, and peripheral systolic blood pressure. The receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve) was drawn to evaluate the predictive value of TnI for death in patients with severe heat stroke. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was conducted to assess the clinical net benefit rate of TnI prediction. Grouping by TnI cut-off value, Kaplan-Meier survival curve was used to analyze 30-day cumulative survival. Sensitivity analysis included modified Possion regression, E-value, and subgroup forest map was used to evaluate the mortality risk of TnI in different populations. External dataset was used to verify the predictive value of TnI.@*RESULTS@#The death group had significantly higher TnI compared to the survival group [μg/L: 0.623 (0.196, 1.510) vs. 0.084 (0.019, 0.285), P < 0.01]. Multivariate Cox regression analysis after adjusting for confounding factors showed that TnI was an independent risk factor for death [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.885, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was 1.528-2.325,P < 0.001]. Spearman correlation test showed that TnI was positively correlated with heart rate (r = 0.537, P < 0.001) and negatively correlated with peripheral systolic blood pressure (r = -0.611, P < 0.001). ROC curve showed that the area under the curve (AUC) of the TnI (0.817) was better than that of the acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II, 0.756). The DCA curve showed that the range of clinical net benefit rate of TnI (6.21%-20.00%) was higher than that of APACHE II score (5.14%-20.00%). Kaplan-Meier survival curve showed that patients in the low-risk group (TnI ≤ 0.106) had a significantly higher 30-day survival rate than that in the high-risk group (TnI > 0.106) group (Log-Rank test: χ2 = 17.350, P < 0.001). Modified Possion regression with adjustment for confounding factors showed that TnI was still an independent risk factor for death in patients with severe heat stroke [relative risk (RR) = 1.425, 95%CI was 1.284-1.583, P < 0.001]. The E-value was 2.215. The subgroup forest plot showed that the risk factors of TnI were obvious in male patients and patients ≤ 60 years old (male: HR = 1.731, 95%CI was 1.402-2.138, P < 0.001; ≤ 60 years old: HR = 1.651, 95%CI was 1.362-2.012, P < 0.001). In the validation dataset, ROC curve analysis showed that the AUC (0.836) of TnI predicting the prognosis of severe heat stroke was still higher than the APACHE II score (0.763).@*CONCLUSIONS@#Early elevation of TnI is a high-risk factor for death in patients with severe heat stroke, and it has a good predictive value for death.