Simulación de escenarios para predecir el comportamiento de la COVID-19 en Perú / Scenario simulation to predict the behavior of COVID-19 in Peru

Introducción: La COVID-19 ha constituido un reto de múltiples dimensiones para la humanidad, aún más para los decisores responsables de accionar de manera certera y oportuna para su enfrentamiento. En Perú, con una tendencia actual favorable de la Pandemia, es inminente la propagación de la variante Delta, de allí que requieran de informaciones predictivas que posibiliten adoptar decisiones anticipadas para mitigar sus efectos. Objetivo: Simular escenarios aplicando la modelación físico-matemática, para la predicción del comportamiento de la COVID-19 en Perú que facilite la adopción de decisiones. Material y Métodos: Modelación físico-matemática mediante herramientas y funciones del software MATLAB. Resultados: Determinación del comportamiento de las principales variables de la COVID-19 en Perú; modelo físico-matemático basado en el clásico SIR con nuevos compartimientos relacionados con la vacunación y los expuestos, así como su ajuste a los datos de Perú; simulación de escenarios, incluyendo la variante Delta, para fallecidos, infectados acumulados, infectados no vacunados e infectados vacunados. Conclusiones: El modelo concebido para la simulación de escenarios de evolución de la COVID-19, demostró su capacidad de predicción del comportamiento de las variables más importantes que determinan dicha evolución en Perú; debe ocurrir otra ola de contagios y llegarse a cifras acumulativas entre 2,9 y 3,36 millones de infectados y entre 215 y 255 mil fallecidos; las principales estrategias de mitigación deben dirigirse a garantizar el distanciamiento y aislamiento social, así como a incrementar el régimen de vacunación(AU)

Introduction: COVID-19 has been a multi-dimensional challenge for humanity, even more so for decision-makers responsible for acting in an accurate and timely manner to confront it. In Peru, with is a current favorable trend of the Pandemic, the spread of the Delta variant is imminent, hence the need for predictive information that makes it possible to make early decisions to mitigate its effects. Objective: To simulate scenarios applying the physical-mathematical modeling to predict the behavior of COVID-19 in Peru and facilitate decision-making. Material and Methods: Physical-mathematical modeling using MATLAB software tools and functions. Results: Determination of the behavior of the main variables associated with COVID-19 in Peru; physical-mathematical modeling based on the classic SIR with new compartments related to vaccination and those exposed, as well as its adjustment to the data from Peru; simulation of scenarios including the Delta variant for deceased persons, cumulative number of infected individuals, and infection in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals. Conclusions: The model conceived for the simulation of COVID-19 evolution scenarios demonstrated its ability to predict the behavior of the most important variables that determine such evolution in Peru; another wave of infections may occur and cumulative figures between 2.9 and 3.36 million infected individuals and between 215 and 255 thousand deaths may be reached. The main mitigation strategies should be aimed at guaranteeing social distancing and isolation, as well as increasing the vaccination regimen(AU)

Immature stages, phenology, distribution and host plants of the Andean Moon Moth Cercophana frauenfeldii Felder, 1862 (Lepidoptera: Saturniidae)

Abstract Cercophana frauenfeldii Felder (Lepidoptera: Saturniidae), also known as the "Andean Moon Moth", is a Neotropical species native to continental Chile whose larvae feed on species of the families Gomortegaceae, Laureaceae and Winteraceae. We describe and document C. frauenfeldii immature stages, namely, egg, its four larval instars, and chaetotaxy of the last instar, pupa and cocoon for the first time. In terms of its phenology, we extend its larval activity, originally described to occur between November and mid-December, to June until the end of January. We report the adult flight period depends on the species' distributional range following two well-differentiated patterns: February to mid-April in Central-North Chile and April to June in Central-South Chile. Furthermore, we provide a unified view of its current distributional range and host plants (including the endangered tree Gomortega keule) through bibliographic data, field observations and laboratory rearing. Finally, we discuss aspects of the species' conservation as part of the unique ecosystems found in the temperate forests of southern South-America.

On the natural history of Cosmophyga cortesi Vargas (Lepidoptera: Geometridae), a little-known geometrid moth of the Atacama Desert

Abstract The integration of field work with DNA barcoding is useful to disentangle lepidopteran interactions in nature. Adults of the little-known geometrid moth Cosmophyga cortesi Vargas, 2008 (Lepidoptera: Geometridae) were reared from folivorous larvae collected on the native tree Schinus areira L. (Anacardiaceae) at about 260 and 1500 m elevation in the transverse valleys of the Atacama Desert of northern Chile. Similarity of two DNA barcodes of C. cortesi was 99.7 and 100% with one sequence of an unidentified geometrid larva previously collected in a cell of the potter wasp Hypodynerus andeus (Packard, 1869) (Hymenoptera: Vespidae). This finding represents the first host plant record for C. cortesi, expands its previously documented altitudinal range by more than 1200 m and confirms that its larvae are captured by females of a potter wasp.

A new species of Stenoptilia Hübner (Lepidoptera: Pterophoridae) associated with Neobartsia peruviana (Orobanchaceae) in the Andes of northern Chile

Abstract The plume moth genus Stenoptilia Hübner, [1825] (Lepidoptera: Pterophoridae) is recorded for the first time from Chile. Adults of Stenoptilia socoromaensis Vargas & Gielis sp. nov. from the northernmost part of the Chilean Andes are described and illustrated. The larvae of S. socoromaensis feed on buds, flowers and unripe fruits of the hemiparasitic plant Neobartsia peruviana (Walp.) Uribe-Convers & Tank (Orobanchaceae). Pairwise distances of a DNA barcode sequence of S. socoromaensis with congeneric species ranged from 9.1 to 12.6% (K2P).

A new species of Macaria Curtis (Lepidoptera: Geometridae: Ennominae) from the Andes of northern Chile

Abstract Macaria kruegeri Vargas, Hausmann & Parra sp. nov. is described and illustrated based on adults reared from larvae collected on the shrub Adesmia spinosissima Meyen (Fabaceae) at about 3200 m elevation in the Andes of northern Chile. Macaria kruegeri resembles Macaria alba (Bartlett-Calvert, 1893), described from southern Chile. However, the two species can be accurately separated based on subtle differences in wing pattern and the shape of the valvula of the male genitalia. In addition, there is a DNA barcode divergence (COI gene) of 4.9% between both taxa.

Female genitalia of Pero obtusaria Prout, 1928 (Lepidoptera: Geometridae)

Abstract The female genitalia of Pero obtusaria Prout, 1928 (Lepidoptera: Geometridae) are described and illustrated for the first time and compared to congenerics. The antrum with the dorsal part sculptured with two sinuous longitudinal stripes enables the identification of this species.

First record of the sedge feeder Bactra verutana Zeller (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) in Chile based on morphology and DNA barcodes

Abstract The sedge-feeding moth Bactra verutana Zeller, 1875 (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae: Olethreutinae: Bactrini), described from Dallas, Texas, USA, is widespread, recorded throughout much North America, Central and South America, including the Caribbean, and Africa. The species is recorded for the first time from Chile based on specimens collected in the coastal valleys of the Atacama Desert, where its larvae feed on Cyperus corymbosus Rottb. var. subnodosus (Nees & Meyen) Kük. (Cyperaceae). A single DNA barcode haplotype, which is widespread in USA, was found in two Chilean specimens sequenced.

Larva, pupa and DNA barcodes of the Neotropical geometrid moth Glena mielkei (Lepidoptera: Geometridae: Ennominae: Boarmiini)

ABSTRACT Glena mielkei Vargas, 2010 (Lepidoptera: Geometridae: Ennominae: Boarmiini) is a Neotropical geometrid moth native to the Atacama Desert of northern Chile whose larvae are folivorous on the shrub Trixis cacalioides (Asteraecae). The last instar and pupa are described and illustrated, and DNA barcode sequences are provided for the first time for G. mielkei. Descriptions are made based on larvae collected in the type locality. Comparisons with the available descriptions of congeneric species suggest that the chaetotaxy of the SV group of the abdominal segment and the morphology of the cremaster could be useful tools to species identification based on last instar and pupa, respectively. A search in BOLD (Barcode of Life Data System) showed that the only DNA barcode haplotype found in the two specimens sequenced was closest to Physocleora Warren, 1897 than Glena Hulst, 1896. These results coincide with the morphological peculiarities of the genitalia highlighted in the original description of G. mielkei, suggesting that a definitive assessment of the generic status of this geometrid moth deserves further integrative studies.

¿Quién se beneficia con los nuevos conocimientos y terapias dirigidas al combate del cáncer? / Who are benefitted with the new knowledge and therapies directed to combat cancer?

Este trabajo presenta como objetivo revelar la influencia de los contextos socioeconómicos en las maneras de afrontamiento al cáncer como enfermedad. Se muestra un análisis sobre el cáncer como problema social y de salud; se analiza el papel de algunos entes sociales involucrados, el acceso de los enfermos a las terapias y de los productores de fármacos a las nuevas tecnologías. Se reflexiona acerca de la sobreevaluación de los fármacos que dificulta el acceso a novedosas y efectivas terapias; la supeditación del saber tecnocientífico a los intereses del capital; la creciente contaminación ambiental como detonante al incremento de casos; y la escasez de tecnologías para la prevención y el saneamiento en países subdesarrollados. Finalmente se refiere el programa cubano de lucha contra el cáncer, su situación actual y proyecciones.

This paper aimes at revealing the influence of the socioeconomic contexts on the way cancer is faced as a disease. An analysis about cancer as a social and health problem is presented; the role of some social organizations involved the sick's access to therepies and drug producers' access to new technologies. It is reflected on the over-asessment of drugs which makes access to new and effective therapies difficult; the subordination of the technoscientific knowledge to the interests of the capital; the growing environmental pollution as a trigger for cases increase; and the limited technological resources for prevention and cleanup in underdeveloped countries. Finally, it is made reference to the Cuban cancer fighting program, its current status and scope.

Sexual dimorphism and population differentiation in the Chilean Neotropical moth Macaria mirthae (Lepidoptera, Geometridae): a wing geometric morphometric example

Abstract Sexual shape dimorphism is the differentiation of male and female organisms based on their shape variation; this definition was proposed for the use of geometric morphometrics analysis where the geometric features of the shape are analyzed without the influence of the size. Macaria mirthae (Lepidoptera: Geometridae) is a moth that inhabits different valleys in the north of Chile principally associated to Acacia macracantha and lately Leucaena leucocephala both trees of the Fabaceae family. The Sexual dimorphism was analyzed in this species in order to corroborate studies on the use of wing as a sexual differentiation trait, and specific influence of localities was also evaluated. A clear shape variation was found where the male wings are more contracted compared to female wings. A climate influence is also suggested that could differentiate the wing shape from the individuals that inhabit two different valleys in the neotropical region of the north of Chile. This research supports previous studies identifying a clear Sexual shape dimorphism in the wing, as a selected trait, suggesting that oviposition and male competition of this group of moths is reflected in their wings. These differences raise the question whether Sexual shape dimorphism can be modulated by natural selection.

Genetic divergence of a newly documented population of the cecidogenous micromoth Eugnosta azapaensis Vargas & Moreira (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) in the Atacama Desert of northern Chile

Abstract Eugnosta azapaensis Vargas and Moreira, 2015 (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) is a micromoth native to the Atacama Desert whose larvae induce fusiform galls in shoots of Baccharis salicifolia (Ruiz & Pav.) Pers. (Asteraceae). The presence of this cecidogenous tortricid was previously recorded only from the type locality, the Azapa Valley, Arica Province, northern Chile. However, fusiform galls on shoots of B. salicifolia were recently found in Chaca, another coastal valley of the Atacama Desert. The adults obtained from these galls were preliminarily identified as E. azapaensis based on morphology. Subsequently, to assess an additional source of evidence for the taxonomic identification of E. azapaensis in this new locality, sequences of the DNA barcode fragment of the cytochrome oxidase subunit I mitochondrial gene from the two localities were analyzed. Four haplotypes were detected, two restricted to Azapa and two restricted to Chaca. The genetic divergence (K2P) between haplotypes of each locality was 0.2-0.8%, while it was 1.1-1.4% between haplotypes of different localities, and 8.7-13.5% between the Chilean haplotypes and other species of Eugnosta Hübner, 1825. In addition, all the sequences of Azapa and Chaca were clustered in a well-supported group in a Maximum Likelihood (ML) analysis. Accordingly, divergence and ML analyses support the morphological identification of E. azapaensis in the Chaca Valley. Furthermore, although preliminary, the analyses suggest that the genetic variation of the populations of this insect could be geographically structured, a pattern that must be assessed in further studies.

A new species of Leurocephala Davis & Mc Kay (Lepidoptera, Gracillariidae) from the Azapa Valley, northern Chilean Atacama Desert, with notes on life-history

ABSTRACT The Neotropical micromoth genus Leurocephala Davis & Mc Kay, 2011 (Lepidoptera, Gracillariidae) was originally described to include only the type species, L. schinusae Davis & Mc Kay, 2011, whose leaf miner larvae are associated with Anacardiaceae in Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. An integrative analysis including morphology, life history and DNA barcode sequences revealed that specimens collected on Schinus molle L. (Anacardiaceae) in the coastal valleys of the Atacama Desert of northern Chile belong to a second species of this formerly monotypic genus. Adults of Leurocephala chilensis Vargas & Moreira sp. nov. are herein described and illustrated in association with the immature stages and life history, and corresponding phylogenetic relationships are assessed based on DNA barcode sequences. This finding provides the first record of Leurocephala from west of the Andes Range, expanding remarkably its geographic range. It is suggested that the extent of diversity within Leurocephala is much greater and that variation in geographic factors and host plant use may have modeled it, an evolutionary hypothesis that should be assessed in further studies.

A morphological reappraisal of the immature stages and life history of Elachista synethes Meyrick (Lepidoptera, Elachistidae), an Australian leaf miner alien to Chile

ABSTRACT Elachista synethes was recently recognized as an alien species in northern Chile, where its larvae mine the rescue grass Bromus catharticus (Poaceae). In order to provide the necessary information to allow field detection of E. synethes during early ontogeny, we conducted a morphological reappraisal of the immature stages of this leaf-miner moth, based on light and scanning electron microscopy, including the first descriptions of the egg and the first-instar larva. This is the first report of the existence of an apodal early larva for a species of Elachista Treitschke. The legs and prolegs are absent in the first two instars, but are well developed in the last two. Additional observations on the life history are also provided, including a description of the mine.

Egg laying site selection by a host plant specialist leaf miner moth at two intra-plant levels in the northern Chilean Atacama Desert

Egg laying site selection by a host plant specialist leaf miner moth at two intra-plant levels in the northern Chilean Atacama Desert. The spatial distribution of the immature stages of the leaf miner Angelabella tecomae Vargas & Parra, 2005 was determined at two intra-plant levels (shoot and leaflet) on the shrub Tecoma fulva fulva (Cav.) D. Don (Bignoniaceae) in the Azapa valley, northern Chilean Atacama Desert. An aggregated spatial pattern was detected for all the immature stages along the shoot, with an age dependent relative position: eggs and first instar larvae were clumped at apex; second, third and fourth instar larvae were mostly found at intermediate positions; meanwhile the spinning larva and pupa were clumped at basis. This pattern suggests that the females select new, actively growing leaflets for egg laying. At the leaflet level, the immature stages were found more frequently at underside. Furthermore, survivorship was higher for larvae from underside mines. All these results highlight the importance of an accurate selection of egg laying site in the life history of this highly specialized leaf miner. By contrast, eventual wrong choices in the egg laying site selection may be associated with diminished larval survivorship. The importance of the continuous availability of new plant tissue in this highly human modified arid environment is discussed in relation with the observed patterns.

Lycaenid caterpillars (Lepidoptera, Lycaenidae) eating flowers of Dalea pennellii var. chilensis (Fabaceae) in the northern Chilean Andes

Lycaenid caterpillars (Lepidoptera, Lycaenidae) eating flowers of Dalea pennellii var. chilensis (Fabaceae) in the northern Chilean Andes. The shrub Dalea pennellii var. chilensis (Fabaceae) is reported for the first time as a host plant for three Neotropical Polyommatini (Lepidoptera, Lycaenidae, Polyommatinae): Hemiargus ramon (Dognin, 1887), Leptotes trigemmatus (Butler, 1881) and Nabokovia faga (Dognin, 1895), based on two collections performed in the western slopes of the northern Chilean Andes in two consecutive summers. The relative abundance was always above 90% for N. faga while it was always less than 5% for H. ramon and L. trigemmatus. Furthermore, N. faga was not found on inflorescences of other native Fabaceae examined in the study site. This pattern suggests a close relationship between N. faga and D. pennellii var. chilensis, at least at a local scale.

External morphology of the immature stages of Neotropical heliconians: IX. Dione glycera (C. Felder & R. Felder) (Lepidoptera, Nymphalidae, Heliconiinae)

External morphology of the immature stages of Neotropical heliconians: IX. Dione glycera (C. Felder & R. Felder) (Lepidoptera, Nymphalidae, Heliconiinae). The biology of the Andean silverspot butterfly Dione glycera (C. Felder & R. Felder, 1861) is still poorly known. This species is restricted to high elevations in the Andes, where the immature stages are found in close association with species of Passiflora belonging to the section Tacsonia (Juss.) Harms, especially P. tripartida var. mollissima (Kunth), which is grown for subsistence by villagers. Herein we describe and illustrate the external features of the egg, larva and pupa of D. glycera, based on light and scanning electron microscopy.

Prey identification in nests of the potter wasp Hypodynerus andeus (Packard) (Hymenoptera, Vespidae, Eumeninae) using DNA barcodes

Prey identification in nests of the potter wasp Hypodynerus andeus (Packard) (Hymenoptera, Vespidae, Eumeninae) using DNA barcodes. Geometrid larvae are the only prey known for larvae of the Neotropical potter wasp Hypodynerus andeus (Packard, 1869) (Hymenoptera, Vespidae, Eumeninae) in the coastal valleys of the northern Chilean Atacama Desert. A fragment of the mitochondrial gene cytochrome oxidase c subunit 1 was amplified from geometrid larvae collected from cells of H. andeus in the Azapa Valley, Arica Province, and used to provide taxonomic identifications. Two species, Iridopsis hausmanni Vargas, 2007 and Macaria mirthae Vargas, Parra & Hausmann, 2005 were identified, while three others could be identified only at higher taxonomic levels, because the barcode reference library of geometrid moths is still incomplete for northern Chile.

First host plant records for Iridopsis hausmanni Vargas (Lepidoptera, Geometridae) in the coastal valleys of northern Chile

First host plant records for Iridopsis hausmanni Vargas (Lepidoptera, Geometridae) in the coastal valleys of northern Chile. The trees Haplorhus peruviana Engl. and Schinus molle L. (Anacardiaceae) are mentioned as the first host plant records for the little known native moth Iridopsis hausmanni Vargas, 2007 (Lepidoptera, Geometridae, Ennominae) in the coastal valleys of the northern Chilean Atacama Desert. This is also the first record of Anacardiaceae as host plant for a Neotropical species of Iridopsis Warren, 1894.