ABSTRACT
Objective:The authors introduced the change point analysis of normal distribution based on the likelihood ratio principle, analyzed the number of outpatients in a hospital of Luohu District, Shenzhen, to provide scientific basis for rational allocation of health resources.Methods:The authors collected totally 636 number of outpatients' data from 8: 00 to 12: 00 a.m. at 48 time windows at 5 minutes intervals in a hospital of Luohu District, Shenzhen, and analyzed it with single change point analysis of simultaneous change of mean and variance, and discussed when the change point occurred.Results:The average number of outpatient was 13.250 0 for every time window, the change point occurred at 8: 50, the probability was 0.000 025, the average number of outpatient per 5 minutes from 8: 00 to 8: 50 was 7.000 0, the average number of outpatient per 5 minutes from 8: 50 to 12: 00 was 14.897 4, and the ratio of number of outpatients before and after the change point occurred was 1∶2.Conclusion:In the case of no need to determine the base period or compare the data, the change point analysis of normal distribution based on the principle of likelihood ratio provides a new way of statistical analysis and statistical monitoring for the rational allocation of health resources based on the number of patients.
ABSTRACT
Objective To explore the effect of the health management service in patients with metabolic syndrome (MS) by family doctors. Methods A total of 417 patients with MS were screened during a health examination and divided into the intervention and control groups (206 and 211 cases, respectively), using a random digital table. Based on routine health follow-up, the intervention group received increased health management intervention by the family doctor, while the control group was only had followed-up with routine health check-ups.After 1 year,the changes in body mass index(BMI),blood pressure, triglyceride (TG) levels, fasting blood glucose (FBG) levels, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol(HDL-C)in the two groups of patients were observed.The effect of intervention was analyzed using the paired design t-test and chi-square test.Results In the intervention group,the BMI(25.04±2.92)kg/m2, systolic blood pressure(121.5±15.6)mmHg(1 mmHg=0.133 kPa),TG levels(2.02±1.24)mmol/L,and FBGlevels (5.92±1.75)mmol/L after the intervention,were lower than those before the intervention(25.66±2.64)kg/m2, (128.4±16.5)mmHg,(2.43±1.06)mmol/L,(6.34±1.62)mmol/L;respectively,and these differenceswerestatistically significant(t=2.437,3.598,3.536,2.983,respectively;P<0.05).HDL-C levels after the intervention(1.32± 0.26) mmol/L were higher than thosebefore the intervention (1.26 ± 0.32) mmol/L, and the difference was statistically significant(t=-2.218,P<0.05).In the intervention group,blood pressure,BMI,FBGlevels,and HDL-C levels after the intervention were higher than the normal reference values.The proportion of patients with normal reference valuesafter the intervention were 62.6%, 75.2%, 14.6%, and 52.9%, respectively, which were lower than those before the intervention(92.7%, 85.4% 23.3%, and 63.6%, respectively);thesedifferenceswerestatistically significant (χ2=53.795, 6.777, 5.124, and 4.832, respectively;P<0.05). After 1 year,the control group had lower BMI(24.52±2.69)kg/m2than that before the intervention(25.79± 2.85) kg/m2; thisdifference was statistically significant (t=2.421, P<0.05).There were no significant differences in the systolic and diastolic blood pressure, TG levels, HDL-C levels, and FBG levels. Conclusion Health management byfamily doctors can effectively reduce weight, blood pressure, blood lipids,and blood sugar by interfering with the lifestyle of patients with MS.