ABSTRACT
Emerging large-scale epidemics not only cause heavy casualties , but have a huge impact on economy .This paper analyzes the characteristics and manners of the economic impact of emerging large -scale epidemics .Economic losses and the national economic impact of emerging large-scale epidemics are analyzed at three levels: microscopic , supply and demand , and macroscopic .Then the relationship between the these levels is discussed .This research is expected to play an important role in the construction of an appropriate economic model for analysis and calculation of economic losses of emerging large-scale epidemics , and in the formulation of the best cost-effective ratio for preventin and control measures against emerging large-scale epidemics .
ABSTRACT
Human behavior significantly affects the spreading dynamics of infectious diseases in large populations .The study of the interplay between the adaptive behavior and the epidemic dynamics underlies the professional information release and psychological counseling mechanism and is conducive to disease control and social panic elimination .This paper aims at the investigation of the effect of adaptive behaviors on the spreading dynamics of epidemics in structured populations .We analyzed the empirical data on adaptive behavior from several large epidemics after the outbreak of SARS in 2003 and confirmed the induction effect of two main information sources on adaptive behavior , e.g., public available information and local perceived information .Then we investigated the effect of adaptive behavior on epidemic dynamics in a structured population based on two primary models , e.g., health-belief model and network model .The results showed that the individual adaptive behavior had significantly decreased the chance of infection and thus mitigated the epidemics . Human adaptive behavior has a significant effect on spreading dynamics of epidemics .An effective information release mechanism will induce human adaptive behavior and is thus conducive to control of epidemics .
ABSTRACT
To explore the transmission patterns and advise public health departments , this paper establishes a dynamic model on the peculiarity of avian influenza A (H7N9) virus and analyzes the dynamic feature of this type of bird flu trans-mission between humans and birds .Results show that this type of bird flu can be controled , and that closing down live-bird markets is the most effective method .
ABSTRACT
Modeling biosecurity events based on mathematical theories to reveal the inherent mechanism can shed light on the development of biosecurity events and offer accurate scientific support to emergency preparation and response , con-tributing much to national biodefense capability .This paper reviews the applications of mathematical theories as a research and analytic tool in biosecurity and discusses the trends of development in this field .
ABSTRACT
Computational epidemiology is a fast-developing and interdisciplinary research area .Through comprehensive computation-analysis of multi-uncertain factors affecting the epidemic process , this method may add to our knowledge about epidemic patterns and help design reasonable response plans and emergency strategies .This article briefly summarizes the idea and theory of computational epidemiology based on related researches in the recent years , introduces the application of this method in case of smallpox bioterrorism and influenza pandemic , and predicts the development of this area .