Epidemiological characteristics of acute lower respiratory tract infection in children in Gansu Province / 中华疾病控制杂志

Objective To analyze the pathogenic epidemiological characteristics of acute lower respiratory tract infection(ALRTI) in children in Gansu Province from 2012 to 2015. Methods The surveillance data of 458 children infected with ALRTI in 10 sentinel hospitals in Gansu province from 2012 to 2015 were collected, and infection status and epidemiological characteristics of each virus and bacteria were analyzed by descriptive study methods. Results The male to female ratio of the 458 children with ALRTI was 1.81:1, and the positive detection rate of the virus was 33.62%（95% CI：29.28%-37.97%), among which the positive detection rate of respiratory syncytial virus was the highest (12.23%).The positive detection rate of bacteria was 24.84%（95% CI：20.04%-29.65%),among which the positive detection rate of streptococcus pneumoniae was the highest (18.47%).There was significant no difference in the positive detection rate of virus and bacteria between children of different genders (P>0.05).There was significant no difference in the positive detection rate of virus among children of different age groups ( 2=5.980,P=0.050), but the positive detection rate of bacteria was different ( 2=12.078,P=0.002).Positive detection rates of virus infection and bacterial infection were different in distinct seasons (all P<0.05). By using logistics regression analysis, season, age and sentinel hospital were the influencing factors of ALRTI virus infection in children (all P<0.05), and sentinel hospital and years were the influencing factors of ALRTI bacterial infection in children (all P<0.05). Conclusion Respiratory syncytial virus, influenza virus and parainfluenza were the main causes of ALRTI virus infection in children aged 0-14 years in Gansu province, and the main bacterial infections were streptococcus pneumoniae and haemophilus influenzae, the number of virus infection was more than that of bacterial infection. Viral and bacterial infection had the same peak incidence.

Application of a support vector regression on prediction of bacillary dysentery combined with meteorological and air pollutants index / 中华疾病控制杂志

Objective To explore the application of support vector regression (SVR) model combined with meteorological and air pollutants index in the prediction of the cases of bacillary dysentery in Lanzhou City, so as to provide scientific reference for the prevention and control of bacillary dysentery.Methods Time series data of the reported cases of bacillary dysentery from December 2013 to August 2016, combined with the meteorological and air pollutants data, were used as training set to fit support vector regression model. The data from September 2016 to December 2017 was used as validation set to verify the model and compare the effect in fit and prediction with different models. Results A total of 7 192 bacillary dysentery cases were reported in Lanzhou City from 2013 to 2017. The correlation coefficient of meteorological and pollution factors with the cases of bacillary dysentery was more than 0.4, except air pressure. The parameters of the fit model were selected based on the integrated data, acquiring the three parameters with the smallest test error were C=5, γ=0.02 and ε=0.000 1, respectively. The validation set was used to test the different models, which showed that the integrated data model had the best predictive accuracy and robustness . The root mean squared error (RMSE) was 0.164 7 and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was 16.405%. Conclusion SVR model combined with meteorological and air pollutants index is effective in the prediction of bacterial dysentery.

Application and comparison of residual autoregressive model and Holt’s two-parameter exponential smoothing model in infant mortality prediction in some countries along the Belt and Road Initiative / 中华疾病控制杂志

@# Objective To explore the application of residual autoregressive model and Holt's two-parameter exponential model in the prediction of infant mortality rate in some countries along the “Belt and Road” (China-Indo-China Peninsula Economic Corridor). Methods The time series data of infant mortality rate in Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Myanmar, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, and China for 1978-2013 were used as training set to fit residual autoregressive model and Holt's two-parameter exponential model. The 2014-2016 data was used as the validation set to compare the performance of model prediction. Results The akaike information criterion (AIC) value of the residual autoregressive model was superior to Holt's two-parameter exponential model. Both prediction models showed high accuracy, and most evaluation indicators (absolute error and relative error) of residual autoregressive prediction model were smaller than Holt's two-parameter exponential model. The residual autoregressive models of Laos, Myanmar and Cambodia were better than the Holt’s two-parameter exponential model for the infant mortality rate(IMR) prediction in different years. Conclusions The residual autoregressive model and Holt's two-parameter exponential model performed well in infant mortality rate prediction in some countries along the China-Indo-china Peninsula Economic Corridor. The residual autoregressive model has better fitting effect. The residual autoregressive model for infant mortality prediction is superior to the Holt two-parameter exponential model in most countries in most years.

Heavy Metal Assessment among Chinese Nonferrous Metal-exposed Workers from the Jinchang Cohort Study / 生物医学与环境科学（英文）

Environmental exposure to heavy metals has been linked to a wide range of human health hazards. We detected the levels of 15 metals in urine samples from 500 representative sub-samples in an ongoing occupational cohort study (Jinchang Cohort) to directly evaluate metal exposure levels. Fifteen metals, namely As, Ba, Be, Cd, Cs, Cr, Co, Cu, Pb, Mn, Ni, Se, Tl, U, and Zn, were detected by inductively coupled plasma quadruple mass spectrometry. The results showed that median creatinine adjustment and geometric mean urinary metal levels were higher in the heavy metal-exposed group, except Se and Zn, than other reported general or occupational populations. Further studies should address the effects of heavy metals on human health.

Trend Analysis of Cancer Mortality in the Jinchang Cohort, China, 2001-2010 / 生物医学与环境科学（英文）

<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To describe the baseline data of cancers in the Jinchang Cohort, this paper examined trends in cancer mortality among adults investigated in Jinchang, Gansu province from 2001 to 2010.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>Mortality data were collected from company departments through administrative documents, death certificates, etc. Trend analyses of cancer mortality were performed on the basis of 925 cancer deaths between 2001 and 2010.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>The crude mortality rate of cancer continuously increased from 161.86 per 100,000 in 2001 to 315.32 per 100,000 in 2010, with an average increase of 7.69% per year in the Jinchang Cohort (16.41% in females compared to 6.04% in males), but the age-standardized mortality rate increased only in females. Thirteen leading cancers accounted for 92.10% of all cancer deaths. The five leading causes of cancer mortality in males were lung, gastric, liver, esophageal, and colorectal cancer, whereas those in females were lung, liver, gastric, breast, and esophageal cancer.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>The overall cancer mortality rate increased from 2001 to 2010 in the Jinchang Cohort, with greater rate of increase in females than in males. Lung, breast, and gastric cancer, in that order, were the leading causes of increased cancer mortality in females.</p>

Metal Exposure and Risk of Diabetes and Prediabetes among Chinese Occupational Workers / 生物医学与环境科学（英文）

<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To study the association between metal exposure and risk of diabetes and prediabetes among Chinese workers exposed to metals.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>We used data obtained from the baseline survey of the Jinchang Cohort Study of workers in Jinchang Industry, the largest nickel production company in China. A total of 42,122 workers ⋝20 years of age were included in the study. A standardized, structured questionnaire was used to collect epidemiological information. Physical examinations and laboratory tests were conducted to evaluate the health status of the participants and to measure various biomarkers including blood sugar, lipids, and urinary metal concentrations. Logistic regression was used to study the association between occupational groups categorized according to the measured metal levels (office workers, low-level; mining/production workers, mid-level; and smelting/refining workers, high-level) and risk of diabetes and prediabetes.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>The overall prevalence of diabetes and prediabetes was 7.5% and 16.8%, respectively. The adjusted odds ratios for diabetes among mining/production workers and smelting/refining workers compared to office workers were 1.5 (95% CI: 1.3, 1.7) and 3.8 (95% CI: 3.4, 4.3), respectively. No association was observed between these occupational groups and prediabetes in this study.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>Occupations associated with higher levels of metal exposure were associated with an increased risk of diabetes in this cohort. More studies are needed to confirm this observed association.</p>

Prevalence of metabolic syndrome in Chinese nickel-exposed workers / 生物医学与环境科学（英文）

The prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MS) was investigated in Chinese nickel-exposed workers. A total of 35 104 subjects were enrolled in this study. The age-adjusted prevalence of MS, BMI⋝25, diabetes, hypertension, and abnormal lipid was 13.9%, 29.5%, 12.8%, 27.5%, and 47.1%, respectively. The prevalence of BMI⋝25, hyperglycemia, and hypertension increased with the age of males and females, and was higher in males than in females (37.1% vs 21.5%, 15.9% vs 12.1%, 35.0% vs 24.3%, 54.3% vs 40.4%).

Dynamic prediction on the number of influenza-like cases in Gansu province based on data from the influenza sentinel surveillance program, from 2006 to 2011 / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective To understand the epidemiological trend on the number of influenzalike cases and to explore the feasibility of early warning systems of influenza in Gansu province.Methods Based on data from the influenza sentinel surveillance program,a sequence chart was used to analyze the epidemiological trend on the number of influenza-like illness (ILI) cases.Both control chart and mobile percentile method were used to select the threshold of premium alert for the ILI of sentinel surveillance program.Warning effects were assessed by statistical model.Results The prevalence of influenza were both low in 2007 and 2008.Alert thresholds for ILI of Sentinel surveillance was built.The thresholds were higher alert in winter,but lower in summer.Both Seasonal Exponential Smoothing Model and Multiplicative Seasonal ARMA Model (1,1,1) (0,1,0) were used to dynamically predict the weekly percentage of outpatient visits for influenza-like illness (ILI％)of 2011.The concordance rates (predicted=actual) were 100％ for both of them.According to the RMSE values,the dynamically predicted effect of the seasonal exponential smoothing model was superior to ARIMA.Conclusion Dynamic prediction on the number of influenza-like cases could reflect the epidemiological trend of influenza in Gansu province,but with some limitations.

Association of E23K polymorphism of inwardly rectifying K~+channel 6.2 gene with the phenotype of type 2 diabetes and glucose-lowering effect of gliclazide / 中华内分泌代谢杂志

The influences of E23K polymorphism of inwardly rectifying K~+channel 6.2 (Kir6.2) gene on the clinical phenotype of type 2 diabetes and glucose-lowering effect of gliclazide were investigated.The result showed that E23K polymorphism did not influence glucose-lowering effect of gliclazide,but serum creatinine level of patients with K/K genotype was higher than those of E/E and E/K genotypes (P